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 Post subject: Re: RVET #57: Global Mafia - Day 2
PostPosted: October 4th, 2012, 10:47 am 
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Frank 4.0.1 wrote:
Tanksandguns wrote:
Tru Ninja was my vote yesterday for inactivity, and will remain so today. Even more fishy since the mafia didn't kill, and Tru didn't read his PM until today.


http://soundcloud.com/frank4-0-1/day-3-post-1

Think what you want, but I'd rather have a higher % of hitting a mafia, than a total gamble. That being said, you should narrate books.

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 Post subject: Re: RVET #57: Global Mafia - Day 2
PostPosted: October 4th, 2012, 11:06 am 
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It could be true that Tru Ninja is, in fact mafia and is either lurking on the thread to plan his attacks, or trying to think up of a good response to claim his innocence. However, it could also be true that maybe he just has net problems, and has not had time to post in the game. I do somewhat agree in an earlier post made that Market does seem a bit clued it.

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 Post subject: Re: RVET #57: Global Mafia - Day 2
PostPosted: October 4th, 2012, 2:09 pm 
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Sighence wrote:
Now, after having slept on this, I can offer a plausible alternative explanation: the mafia killer was roleblocked. In other words, a town-side person whose night action is to disallow another person's night action from functioning targeted the person who just happened to be selected to make the mafia kill.

If this is the case, and I personally think it is, we need you to step forward now, as you most likely just found us a mafia. In a non-twisty game like this, there is undoubtedly a doctor who, if he's not an absolute and utter moron, will protect you from being nightkilled in reprisal.


Christopher Walken wrote:
There's probably just a mafia blocker role or something that made a right call last night unless that's a thing that would have been at least hinted at in the narrative... Or maybe they just want to Fuzzy Bunny with us?? Man I don't even know.


TanksandGuns wrote:
Think what you want, but I'd rather have a higher % of hitting a mafia, than a total gamble. That being said, you should narrate books.


http://soundcloud.com/frank4-0-1/day-three-post-two

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 Post subject: Re: RVET #57: Global Mafia - Day 2
PostPosted: October 4th, 2012, 3:32 pm 
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Sighence wrote:
I can see Jaron's logic here - dealing with someone not reading their PMs by sending them another PM seems hilariously bad.

If he's not noticing/checking his PMs then he's probably not browsing the forums at all. And I think it's more likely for someone to notice and read a PM than to notice and read a message to them in a single post within an 11-page-and-growing forum topic.


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 Post subject: Re: RVET #57: Global Mafia - Day 2
PostPosted: October 4th, 2012, 6:52 pm 
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God dammit Jackstick.

---

Everyone is of course assuming that there IS a Godfather role who is solely in charge of the kill. This is not always the case... I know I personally rarely include such a role.
Just thought I'd throw that out there.

Sent via Blackberry.

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 Post subject: Re: RVET #57: Global Mafia - Day 2
PostPosted: October 4th, 2012, 7:07 pm 
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It's an assumption, but one that's not unreasonable. This is an introduction to Mafia to a few players, so things are very likely "conventional". This may just be opinion, but I'd consider Godfather along the lines of a 'typical' role to include in this kind of game. I'll personally stick with the thought.

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 Post subject: Re: RVET #57: Global Mafia - Day 2
PostPosted: October 4th, 2012, 7:47 pm 
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When did 'Godfather' become a 'typical' role anyways? The Godfather as I'm familiar with it is an optional mafia power role who appears innocent to investigations. Was a Godfather who sent in the kill a standard in Legends mafia?

The entire case against Tru is hinging on there being a Godfather at all. But really, the existance of one could be argued either way: with such a large game and subsequently larger than usual mafia, it would make sense to give one player killing duties. But on the other hand, with the amount of new players, it could be rather unfair to the mafia if by chance they wound up with an unskilled player in the role.

The lack of a kill is troubling and certainly may look to implicate Tru, but I put forward the following explanation: overthinking. Recall Monk's Scrubbing Bubbles themed game. Myself, Kikori, and Scar were the mafia, and we spent so much time pondering who to kill and who would send in the kill, that nobody did, and we missed our night one kill!

My vote's going to stand on Lander for now. I'd like to have some explanation on why the Godfather conclusion was so quickly jumped to.

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 Post subject: Re: RVET #57: Global Mafia - Day 2
PostPosted: October 4th, 2012, 8:05 pm 
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Topsummoner wrote:
The lack of a kill is troubling and certainly may look to implicate Tru, but I put forward the following explanation: overthinking. Recall Monk's Scrubbing Bubbles themed game. Myself, Kikori, and Scar were the mafia, and we spent so much time pondering who to kill and who would send in the kill, that nobody did, and we missed our night one kill!


Actually, yes. I think almost every Legend's mafia featured a Godfather. So did quite a few RP and Lit. society games. It was moreso the "Leader" of the Mafia and night kill responsibility than the innocent investigation perk in a few cases, too.
I know for a fact it proceeded for a while because it was game... what, six? that Dragon investigated Lander, got innocent, but Lander was Godfather.

This is also part of why I didn't want to jump on Tru just yet. Tru is circumstantial, Market is based on behavior. Speaking of which, there's been enough time for Market to answer Henry. So let's try it this way.
Market Man6 wrote:
Good morning! It seems overnight a lot of discussion has happened. I like all the activity, and that is the origin of my post. To get the ideas and discussion going, I offered my first thoughts.
There IS a chance it could have been a doctor, and there IS a chance they could have said no to a night kill.
I was hoping to get people to build off of what I said.

Good evening! A lot of discussion happened to which you have offered "Captain Obvious Away!" ideas in some cases, and in others rookie-class dead ends. There IS a chance of both happening, but saying so is barely half the battle. "What you said" is what we had already been discussing well before, during, and after your post. The theme of you saying so it literally nothing more than repeating facts to seem included in the discussion.
There IS a chance that the doctor saved someone. But where's the injured player? Jaron may not include one, but that's where your ideas need to come in. Not one step earlier.
There IS a chance that the killer was roleblocked. But if so, who? That's for the roleblocker to claim and say so.
There IS a chance that the Mafia altogether didn't offer a kill. But, as with the doctor, the ideas need to be presented as to "why".

"Why" it may happen, Market. Not "What" may happen. So let's try getting your thoughts again.

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 Post subject: Re: RVET #57: Global Mafia - Day 2
PostPosted: October 4th, 2012, 8:28 pm 
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I don't think we have a Godfather. The lack of a night kill, on Night 1 at least, to me shows a disjointed or inactive Mafia more than anything. Usually in games that feature a Godfather kills aren't missed because the Godfather will always just send in a kill regardless of who he is playing with and what their opinions are.

I don't think we should rule it out completely, but it is more than likely not a role in this game. Tru being inactive is probably just that, the last game I remember him playing in he was replaced like half way through because of inactivity. More of the same it seems.

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 Post subject: Re: RVET #57: Global Mafia - Day 2
PostPosted: October 4th, 2012, 8:43 pm 
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Scar wrote:
Tru being inactive is probably just that, the last game I remember him playing in he was replaced like half way through because of inactivity. More of the same it seems.


That's another valid point: In literally every game I can remember playing with Tru, he has been grossly inactive.

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 Post subject: Re: RVET #57: Global Mafia - Day 2
PostPosted: October 4th, 2012, 8:49 pm 
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I'm gonna have to jump on the "There is no godfather" boat. Very few of the games I've played, if I recall correctly, had no godfather at all. That's probably due to me only playing in the RP&Lit forum, not in Legend's.

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Kikori wrote:
Topsummoner wrote:
Riptide wrote:
I used to get you and J@n mixed up. Except your funnier. And nicer. Happy 21st bro!

Oh man Jan, you just got zinged by Riptide. How much does THAT suck?


Well, statistically speaking, slightly more than a giant suckusaur. A dire one.


PenguinGuy wrote:
Lets see if I remember how to play...

EX REX IS MAFIA SCUM FOURTHVOTER UNVILLAGE BLAH BLAH BLAH SCUM BLAH WINE IN FRONT OF ME BLAH BLAH META GAME BLAH BLAH BLAH SMELLS OF ELDERBERRIES BLAH

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 Post subject: Re: RVET #57: Global Mafia - Day 2
PostPosted: October 4th, 2012, 9:11 pm 
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dear kikori
kikori wrote:
"What you said" is what we had already been discussing well before, during, and after your post

wrong.

what was said before was: "Uh...so, inactive mafia it looks like?"
a joke by jack with a retort from frank. nothing more on the topic of the lack of nightkill. so i added some other possibilities, in an attempt to get more people thinking about what happened, and for those people to be more vocal about them(once one person goes, others are likely to follow). with this discussion, we can get the rookies learning more about the game, as well as having more people talking about serious things. no more day1 jokes. we can now start to use peoples responses.
so thats 'why'


Quote:
There IS a chance that the doctor saved someone. But where's the injured player? Jaron may not include one, but that's where your ideas need to come in. Not one step earlier

alright. point taken. after a statement, i will try to add more description as to where that idea came from or was going.
but i would like to add, that as i was typing that morning, we were rapidly approaching the jobsite, and i needed to wrap it up. that is why that may seem short.


Quote:
There IS a chance that the killer was roleblocked. But if so, who? That's for the roleblocker to claim and say so

you are right. and on this note, i will say im not sure if its a good thing for the roleblocker(IF we have one) to come out or not. yes, there is a good chance they will be protected by the doctor if they came out. but once that doctor is dead, the roleblocker is doomed and we lose another power role.
if they stay quiet, they have a chance of coming out with the information later on when it could be a win or lose situation. but this route would leave us at risk of them being chosen for a nightkill later on, and them dieing before we could get that information.

Quote:
There IS a chance that the Mafia altogether didn't offer a kill

if they chose not to, the only reason i can think of would be for them to create confusion. which could result in them sneaking in on a train that earns them a lynch where none of them were noticed. it comes at the risk of giving the detective a free night, but it also gives them time to see how everybody will react to the confusion they created. and base their next nightkill on it. like: XXXXX seemed to be able to easily convince the people around him... and this could be bad for us later. lets get him.

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 Post subject: Re: RVET #57: Global Mafia - Day 2
PostPosted: October 4th, 2012, 10:53 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: RVET #57: Global Mafia - Day 2
PostPosted: October 4th, 2012, 10:55 pm 
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Adam Smith Man wrote:
You are right. and on this note, i will say im not sure if its a good thing for the roleblocker(IF we have one) to come out or not. yes, there is a good chance they will be protected by the doctor if they came out. but once that doctor is dead, the roleblocker is doomed and we lose another power role.


Quote:
roleblocker


[youtube]Xi6T0VEk1Jo[/youtube]

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 Post subject: Re: RVET #57: Global Mafia - Day 2
PostPosted: October 4th, 2012, 11:09 pm 
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Kikori wrote:
Actually, yes. I think almost every Legend's mafia featured a Godfather.

Confirming. Every game I have ever played in has had a Godfather, and every game I have ever played was in the Legends forum. I assumed it was a pretty standard role.


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 Post subject: Re: RVET #57: Global Mafia - Day 2
PostPosted: October 4th, 2012, 11:22 pm 
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I only just now realized something...

Though Frank is amusing, he raises a point that I think is wrong. It's entirely possible that we have a roleblocker, though he argued that the roleblocker shouldn't continue to use his role. In truth, if the roleblocker DID block the mafia godfather, he should continue to block that target until we have verified the identity of the blocked person.

And a word to those arguing against the Godfather role: times when there was NOT a Godfather seem to be few and far between. What's the alternative? Forcing the mafia to agree on a target and each sending in a PM is foolish. Having a Godfather ultimately puts that responsibility on one player so that the game runs more smoothly (theoretically).

On the flip side, I have also played games as the Godfather but anyone in the mafia could send in a kill. One game I delegated Riptide to be the kill sender so that he could learn more about the game and make those choices on his own...but the bottom line is that there is nearly always a Godfather role, whether or not he is responsible for sending kills and/or whether or not he is innocent upon investigation is unrelated.

Topsummoner. You placed a vote out of a seeming joke, and now it 'stands'? Why? Because I have a vote placed for Tru Ninja? In the chance that he is the Godfather, my vote is warranted. In the chance that pressure will get him to post, it is warranted. Even in the chance that we kill an inactive townie, the vote is still warranted given the odds of the abovementioned.

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 Post subject: Re: RVET #57: Global Mafia - Day 2
PostPosted: October 5th, 2012, 1:49 am 
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Landerpurex wrote:
In truth, if the roleblocker DID block the mafia godfather, he should continue to block that target until we have verified the identity of the blocked person.



Whoa whoa whoa hold up right there. The mafia's killer is the one who was blocked, not the godfather, a point you're familiar with as you show in the following paragraphs. Further, advocating keeping silent on the identity of a mafia? I could see it for a detective who gets to identify on all mafia every night, but a roleblocker who has a mere 1/x shot each night? We got damn lucky here as it is and you want him to shush? I disbelieve your townie credentials, sir.

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 Post subject: Re: RVET #57: Global Mafia - Day 2
PostPosted: October 5th, 2012, 2:09 am 
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There are A LOT of variables at work here.

I'm saying if there is a roleblocker, and he has blocked someone, what exactly is the problem with that person blocking that target again and testing those waters? If he blocks the same person and there is no kill AGAIN, what do you suppose that means?

I'm saying it could be either the Godfather or the designated killer...but again, see above. If the Godfather is required to send the kill, as has been the norm more often than not in my opinion, he could be blocked again and indefinitely if that is the case.

In all reality Monknub, you ought to know that in any case it is in the roleblocker's best interest to keep quiet. There are too many questions to be had, and if a roleblocker came out the person he blocked may or may not be the mafia killer, godfather, etc. If he comes clean, the mafia knows who he is and then we have a WIFOM situation between them and the doctor. Simpler if he keeps quiet. For now.

But I believe that if we did have a roleblocker he would have come clean by now, if only to give us some context. So ultimately, your vote has very little credence.

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 Post subject: Re: RVET #57: Global Mafia - Day 2
PostPosted: October 5th, 2012, 10:23 am 
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Sighence wrote:
Landerpurex wrote:
In truth, if the roleblocker DID block the mafia godfather, he should continue to block that target until we have verified the identity of the blocked person.



Whoa whoa whoa hold up right there. The mafia's killer is the one who was blocked, not the godfather, a point you're familiar with as you show in the following paragraphs. Further, advocating keeping silent on the identity of a mafia? I could see it for a detective who gets to identify on all mafia every night, but a roleblocker who has a mere 1/x shot each night? We got damn lucky here as it is and you want him to shush? I disbelieve your townie credentials, sir.

Landerpurex


Whoa whoa yourself. We have four possibilities to explain the lack of night kill right now. Check them again.
Roleblocker, inactive Godfather, inactive Mafia without a Godfather, Doctor without a notification.
Roleblocker - 1 in 20 chance of hitting the correct killer, whether it be the person who sends in the PM, the Godfather explicitly, or a designated killing role. 5% chance.
Doctor - 1 in 20 chance of protecting the correct victim. 5% chance.
Detective - ... (21 / 3 = 7 - 1 = 6, 6/21 = ) 28.5% chance of hitting ANY given Mafia. The odds are made better if we do have seven (but I like to assume it's never actually a 33% mafia rate, as that leads to too short games), and made worse if an existing Godfather appears Innocent on an investigation (which is possible but unconfirmed for this game).

If a Roleblocker somehow nails the 5% chance, how is that the same as the Detective landing the ~28%? Detectives only need to confirm their target by making sure they're not insane, or by checking for Framers. So they have higher odds to succeed and more wiggle room with making their compare compared to a Roleblocker, because they can only get confirmation by blocking the same person again and again. That or their blocked target dies, but I'd hate it if the worst case scenario happens: Roleblocker blocked someone important (doctor, detective), no night kill from an inactive Mafia in some way, and the Roleblocker's "evidence" turned out to screw over the village day two.

So if you want to vote for Lander for saying we should make sure the lucky 5% chance without any confirmation GETS confirmation, I've got to wonder what's going on in your head, Sighence. Why the rush?

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 Post subject: Re: RVET #57: Global Mafia - Day 2
PostPosted: October 5th, 2012, 12:07 pm 
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Landerpurex wrote:
I'm saying if there is a roleblocker, and he has blocked someone, what exactly is the problem with that person blocking that target again and testing those waters?


Because the Godfather would have to be an idiot to send the same killer out again.

Landerpurex wrote:
If he blocks the same person and there is no kill AGAIN, what do you suppose that means?


It means that the Godfather is an idiot.

Landerpurex wrote:
I'm saying it could be either the Godfather or the designated killer...but again, see above. If the Godfather is required to send the kill, as has been the norm more often than not in my opinion, he could be blocked again and indefinitely if that is the case.


We've both been, in various games, the host, the Godfather, and a mafia goon. Never has that been how roleblocking works and you know it. The one who is sent is blocked, not the Godfather telling the host who is being sent.

Landerpurex wrote:
you ought to know that in any case it is in the roleblocker's best interest to keep quiet. There are too many questions to be had, and if a roleblocker came out the person he blocked may or may not be the mafia killer, godfather, etc.


Again, you're wrong and you know it. Picture yourself as the roleblocker. You know who you roleblocked, and you know that there was no nightkill that night. Since, again as you know, a doctor protection is announced, either your roleblock was successful or the mafia was simply inactive. The latter case has happened only once. While the night went on slightly longer than Jaron indicated, a) today's day phase has been extended due to the amount of players, meaning a longer, or at least more lenient with the PM deadline, night phase can be expected, and b)the extra length was not a significantly long time; most days open slightly after 36 hours as it is. Therefore an inactive mafia is unlikely. We've already gone over how unlikely it is that Tru is the Godfather. The only option remaining is that the roleblock was successful. Since the roleblocker has a hilariously unlikely chance of hitting a killer again, it's best that we as a town are informed to the roleblock. As a town-side roleblocker is not as important a power role, even if the doctor decided to be moronic and not protect him, we'll have eliminated a mafia at a 1:1 ratio, perfectly within any sort of realistic acceptable loss scenario for the town.

Landerpurex wrote:
But I believe that if we did have a roleblocker he would have come clean by now, if only to give us some context. So ultimately, your vote has very little credence.


Jack did claim roleblocker. I was, and to an extent still am, somewhat skeptical, but at least his vote matches his claim. So no, my vote doesn't really lack credence.

Kikori wrote:
Whoa whoa yourself. We have four possibilities . . . Doctor without a notification.


I've gone over above why the roleblocker situation is by far the most valid.

Kikori wrote:
Detective - ... (21 / 3 = 7 - 1 = 6, 6/21 = ) 28.5% chance of hitting ANY given Mafia. The odds are made better if we do have seven (but I like to assume it's never actually a 33% mafia rate, as that leads to too short games)


Not entirely relevant to what's at hand but you're forgetting that the detective isn't a mafia member, making any N1 non-self investigation x/20, not x/21.

Kikori wrote:
If a Roleblocker somehow nails the 5% chance, how is that the same as the Detective landing the ~28%? Detectives only need to confirm their target by making sure they're not insane, or by checking for Framers. So they have higher odds to succeed and more wiggle room with making their compare compared to a Roleblocker, because they can only get confirmation by blocking the same person again and again.


This would be true on a role that doesn't get reassigned based on the Godfather's wishes. In our case, the lack of a kill means the scenarios already described, and again only one of those is really valid.

Kikori wrote:
That or their blocked target dies, but I'd hate it if the worst case scenario happens: Roleblocker blocked someone important (doctor, detective), no night kill from an inactive Mafia in some way, and the Roleblocker's "evidence" turned out to screw over the village day two.


Again, a non-zero, but still definitely negligible, chance.

Kikori wrote:
I've got to wonder what's going on in your head, []Sighence[/]. Why the rush?


And yet you rush to vote me. Cognitive dissonance, or protection instinct-induced reaction?


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