I usually tele to pray/restock. It may take extra time, but it saves P pots.
My order is usually- (at full prayer) Dharok, Verac, Karil, praying. Then Ahrim and torag, not praying. Then one dose of P pot on guthan, which usually takes him to 1/3 or so health and I finish him without prayer.

So far, exact order doesn't seem to influence the chest, but my theory is something the lines of:

(7 random numbers from -3 - +3)
-1 +2 +1 -3 -2 +3 +3
+2 -1 +2 +2 -3 -1 +1 (Each monster adds or subtracts a set amount to the numbers- They spread from -40 - +40)
+0 +1 -2 +1 +3 -1 +1 (This would explain why killing certain monsters yeilds more of certain items)
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+1 +2 +3 0 -2 +2 +5 (Total after killing said monsters)

(Of course since most people kill more than 2 monsters, the numbers would more realistically be like:
+15 +32 +7 -1 +13 +25)

Each number represents the amount/chance of a particular item- For example

+1 to minds = 8-12 mind runes
+2 to chaos = 15-20 chaos Runes
+3 to deaths = 30-48 death runes
0 to bloods = no bloods
-2 to Bolt Racks = no Bolt Racks
+5 to *item*= +5 to jackpot (explained below)

The amount of *item* you get is usually pretty high. The numbers for this are added together from trip to trip in a pot, and once they get to over 150, you have a chance of getting an item. If they are over 225, you have a chance of getting two items. If they max out (350) you will get two items, no matter what, although since the chance of getting an item before this point (thusly emptying your pot) is pretty high that would be a rare occurance.

The bros would each add +4 to *item*, while each monster would add only +1 (some would add 0). Since the monsters add low amounts, they don't make neraly as much of a difference as the brothers do. And since the max is +40 per trip, you can't get MONSTROUS chances by just killing a few hundred monsters.

That's just my theory, of course. Tell me if you like the idea. Since the exact amounts would be pretty hard to find, we'd have to just go with estimates. And of course, it IS just a theory.

EDIT: Oh, WHAT THE HELL?! I think barrows is mad at me for getting the secret, because this is my THIRD DHAROK TUNNEL IN A ROW >_>

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According to your theory Boa by now I have a chance of two items at least and I think I might be up near 350. My friend had a 115 run dry streak, he killed all 6 bros and at least 4 others each trip. He should have get two items a while before that happened. At least that's what I think unless there would be a monster which lowers jackpot

EDIT: Just got an item

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Okay, as of this morning I am back in the Barrows ready to do the next 400 runs.
These next series all I am doing is tracking drops in relation to KC (Kill Count)

So runs 601-700 will be looking at KC of 18 on each run.
Runs 701-800 will be looking at the drops with 21 KC
Runs 801-900 will look at drops with KC of 24
and then on runs 901-1000 we will re-visit the 6 KC set-up and see if the first 100 run series was just the randomness of the Barrows at work.

On a suggestion from Kingphatguy2, I am not using mage clothing at all. Trying to see if Magic Dart hits the same wearing Magic Robes as it does with D-Hide. So far I am into my 11th run and I am not seeing any real differance. His idea might be a keeper because of the space savings in your inventory.

I also have the Holy Wrench in my inventory to see if that can help stretch out the pots. Maybe it's working, I switched to Super Restore vs. Prayer pots and I have had 2 runs where I only used 1, 4 dose pot. But to be honest, i'm a little higher level now than last time I barrowed so it's a coin toss right now.

Lets see how it does over the next 50 or so runs


Boa, your idea is interesting, and it might be right. Unfortunately, I see no way to prove it, or any other idea anyone else puts forth, without having some 'know' rules to start with. For example I had a guy telling me a couple of weeks ago that Barrows drops were based on speed. The faster you killed the 6 brothers, the better your chances of getting a drop!!!

Who knows? We have no way to prove or disprove that because the dang thing is random, and does not have a definate trigger every time someone goes, it has a maybe trigger. Even if you killed every creature and brother every run exactly the same, same hits, same timeing, same damage. Your reward would still be different, run to run.

I think the best we are going to be able to do is "You kill this many of this creature and your reward will be in this range" I dont think we will ever be able to influence brother drops other than in how many brothers you kill.

If we keep collecting data, and hopefully others will as well, with luck and lots of patience we might spot some trends that allow us some small measure of control on what else is in the chest though.

Now, please, somebody, anybody come up with a viable method and prove my thoughts wrong.

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When we find the formula jagex will change it though...

Maybe it changes all the time...

I'm gonna start recording aswell now to help you out I was thinkin of 100 runs with 20 kill count, then maybe 100 runs with 10 kill count. I'll start recording tomorrow as it's near midnight here.

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Okay, my newest series of 100 runs is complete, as of May 21.

Here is the raw data.

Runs 601-700. On this next series of runs I went in with the intent of having a kill count of 18 on every run.

Runs 601-700
Total Kills 1800 – 18 kills per run
24,868 Minds
6,398 Deaths
12,233 Chaos
2,887 Bloods
98,332 Gold
3,487 Bolt Racks

Half Keys on Runs 647, 657
10 Brother drops on runs Run 605, 611, 629, 631, 644, 655, 657, 666, 673, 698
Dragon Medium on run 656


Here is a chart I created from my Excel Data. It’s pretty straightforward.



As you can see, it has the amount of drops I received from each series of 100 runs. I had other series of runs, but on those I had varying Kill Counts that I felt would not be a true representation of the Drops.

For a little more clarification, I wanted to compare data that had the same group of parameters to see what varied. I knew I had to kill the 6 brothers on each run because I like the Brother drops and am not willing to give those up just to do these data collection runs.

So the one thing that changes is the number of kills on each run. On these I tried to not focus on a particular creature but instead made sure to kill different things on each run to keep the runs as close to the same as possible.

1st series – 6 kills per run. I killed the six brothers on these 100 runs. Nothing else. Total Kills - 600
2nd series – 9 kills per run. Killed the six brothers plus 3 additional random creatures. Total kills – 900
3rd series – 14 kills per run. Killed the six brothers plus 8 additional random creatures. Total kills – 1400
4th series – 18 kills per run. Killed the six brothers plus 12 additional random creatures. Total kills – 1800

If you look at the chart there are a few observables that you will notice right off. Here is a quick synopsis of each drop category.

1) Mind Runes – You have a huge decrease in the amount of runes you get from 6 kills to 9 kills, and then a steady decrease as you get your kill count higher. It is extremely obvious with this item that the fewer kills you have, the better chance you have of getting large amounts of Mind Runes in the Chest
2) Death Runes – You do not get a huge amount with a kill count of 6, but with a kill count of 9, you more than triple your Death Rune drops. As you continue to get a higher kill count, the amount of Death Runes you get decreases. I will need to do a 100 run series with 12 kill counts to fine tune this number and see where the drop starts occurring, or if there is a better number than 9 KC to get a better return.
3) Chaos Runes – Again a Kill Count of 6 provided the best numbers, although not way outside the norm that you see on the rest of the series. As you can see, the difference in Chaos Runes after 100 runs of 14 kill counts and 18 kill counts is only 48 runes. It would seem that Chaos Runes are not influenced as greatly by Kill Count as any of the other Items are.
4) Blood Runes – Immediately catches the eye. At 6 Kill Count you get 0 Blood Runes. As your number of kills goes up, so does your Blood Rune Drops, until you get to the 14 Kill Count area, after that it appears to start dropping in numbers.
5) Bolt Racks – The Single biggest reason to get High Kill Counts. Watch the numbers climb as your kill count goes up. From just the 6 Brothers and 0 Bolt Racks in 100 runs, to 18 Kill Count and almost 3500 bolt racks in 100 runs. The thing to look at here is that even at 9 Kill Counts, your Bolt Rack Drops are pathetically small. This is another area that could use a look at the 12 Kill Count numbers to see where Bolt Rack drops really start to increase.

The Last factor here is the Gold drops, I could have included it in the chart as well, but doing so would have made the scale too large to pick out the details on the Bolt and Blood drops. Instead I will just list them here

0600 - $161,860
0900 - $113,052
1400 -- $97,387
1800 -- $98,332

Hmm, it almost looks like the amount of Gold Piece’s in your Drops, act inversely to the amount of Blood Runes you get in your Drops. Could they be tied together in some kind of formula? More details are obviously needed.

I am currently doing a set of runs with 21 Kill Counts, I will update this data here when done. My next series of 100 after that was originally scheduled to be 24 Kill Count runs, but unless there is an unexpected development in the data from 18 KC to 21 KC, I will probably change this and look at 100 runs with a KC of 12. I will, as I have stated before, also revisit 100 runs with 6 kill counts to see if the 2 brother drops I got on that series was an aberration.

Now on to the best part, the other drops.

Run 605 – Guthan’s Platebody
Run 611 – Dharok’s Helm
Run 629 – Verac’s Flail
Run 631 – Torag’s Helm
Run 644 – Torag’s Platebody
Run 655 – Karil’s Coif
Run 657 – Dharok’s Great Axe
Run 666 – Verac’s Flail
Run 673 – Dharok’s Great Axe
Run 698 – Dharok’s Platebody


Run 647 – Half Key – Loop
Run 656 – Dragon Medium
Run 657 – Half Key – Teeth

Not bad at all, 10 Brother drops plus a Drag Med. As a matter of fact, Runs 655-657 were very nice, those 3 runs netted me a Coif, Drag Medium, a Great Axe and a Half Key.

So, over 700 runs complete now and I still have never had 3 drops. Guthan Helm, Guthan Legs and Guthan Warspear. Obviously, Guthan is the only Barrow armor I do not have a complete set of.

But I am determined to get every drop in the Barrows and I have infinite patience, so it is only a matter of time. (We hope, it is after all random so realistically I could potentially NEVER get one of those final 3 drops. – What a wonderful thought)

When I Barrows, I have private Chat off and I don’t use other IM programs like AIM or MSN either at that time, so it gets very quiet. So here’s a shout out to all those RV’s that stopped by and said hi last week. It was pleasant to visit with you guys, thanks. I need to add that the funniest one that I ran into was Alpr, he pops out of the tunnel as I am going in and after a second’s hesitation, tells me my name looks familiar for some reason, then heads off to his next crypt. ;roll; That just cracked me up. I could not respond to him I was laughing at the keyboard so hard. Thanks Alpr, you made my day on that one.

Hmm, maybe if I give him 2 amulets of Fury for the next RVDDP he will remember my name?

Anyway, I am considering taking a break long enough to do the new quest, but I will probably do it after this series of 100 and before the next. Hopefully see you guys in about a week when this next set is done and I post that data as well.

And Ranger Blue, I will be more than happy to see any data you gather. If you want a pretty easy to use spreadsheet already set up, give me your e-mail in a PM and I will send it to you.

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Thanks for the new data, will be glad to use the spreadsheet you have set up. Notepad on swiftswitch isn't ideal for recording things like that really.

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The spread sheet is great, a couple of points to insert and the spread sheet does the rest.

I would reccomend it to any barrows data loggers.

rarius you are an absolute legend. I love reading the information that you provide us with such detail. I look forward to the 901-1000 series. It'll make or break many of us barrowers. I have used your information, doing 14 kills per run, and i have averaged a barrows item every 9 trips for 120 odd runs. 2 spears and 2 verac helms included in there too. Thankyou, before istarted incorporating your theory i was on a maaaaassive drought, roughly 50 runs broken by karils coif then another 70 runs.

keep up the good work

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rs name: gikal
PIXEL SIG MAKER! PM ME

^^THX Viva la Che for da nice sig!!^^

nice man ur rich lol

zoefer1 - no, actually I'm not. I give a lot away. I play because I like the game. I play to achieve levels in the game and do different things. Early on I had set a goal that I was going to do Barrows until I got at least one of every drop. That is not why I do this log, but thats what prompted me to start the Barrow Runs in the first place. When will it end? Not sure. I've made 810 runs and have got 22 of the 24 possable items at least once. 2 more to go. But thats why I play, not to get rich, not to hoard it. I have no interest in Masks and Phats. I play for myself, because I have always enjoyed - the fun of the game.

But,........I do have a little nest egg. You never know when your going to need cash in a hurry. You know, if someone offers me the deal of the week, like they'll sell me 1000 snapdraggon seeds at 10k each, I like to be able to accept thier offer. So I'm not rich, but i'm not exactly poor either.


I LuV CLaSSic - Thank you for sharing your info. Glad to hear that you are on a good streak, remeber that when you go 40 to 50 runs between drops. It's random and it can happen. Just remember not to give up and stay with it and you'll be alright.

[hr]


Okay, my newest series of 100 runs is complete, as of May 29.

Here is the raw data.

Runs 701-800. On this next series of runs I went in with the intent of having a kill count of 21 on every run.

Runs 701-800
Total Kills 2100 – 21 kills per run
25,164 Minds
6,442 Deaths
10,269 Chaos
3,630 Bloods
97,490 Gold
3,487 Bolt Racks

Half Keys on Runs 706, 724, 730, 736, 752, 780
9 Brother drops on runs Run 703, 720(2), 723, 737, 758, 763, 785, 786
Dragon Medium on runs 745, 786

Here are the actual run numbers -

703 - Guthan's Platebody
706 - Half Key - loop
720 - Torag's Helm & Karil's Leathertop
723 - Karil's Crossbow
724 - Half Key - loop
730 - Half Key - Teeth
736 - Half Key - Teeth
737 - Verac's Flail
745 - Drag Med
752 - Half Key - Teeth
758 - Karil's Leathertop
763 - Guthan's Warspear
780 - Half Key - Teeth
785 - Ahrim's Hood
786 - Verac's Helm & Drag Med

[hr]

I'll do a little disection on this latter in the week.

A couple things worth mentioning right off..

• First - Brother Drops. The numbers have been pretty consistant no matter what the KC (Kill Count) was, with the exception of the 6 KC run where I only killed the 6 brothers and nothing else. With that in mind I am going to do runs 801-900 at 6 KC again to see if I can get different results than the last time.
• Everything seemed to level out in quantity of drops from 18 KC to 21 KC. If you look there is a trade off occuring between Bolt Racks and Blood Runes. For the 18 KC run I killed more Skeletons than anything else, for the 21 KC runs I killed more Spiders and Rats, although skeletons where close behind. I am going to have to dedicate 25-50 runs to each creature type at some point just to prove or dis-prove to myself that they do without a doubt influence the drop types.
• Over 700 runs into this log and I just realized something on this last set. You get the last brother either at the chest or in the tunnel. Something triggered during this last set of 100 and I watched a trend unfold. If you get the brother in the tunnel, 95% of the time, it is within 2 doors of the puzzle door. If you think about it, that can be a very handy piece of information to know.

Thanks for reading my log and I hope to hear from more of you that have keep track of your data, please don't hesitate to share.

Back to the Barrow and my 6 KC runs.

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Is Your Name On This List? Your friends are listed here, why arn't you? Maybe you are wondering just how DO you get your name on that list? Send me a PM and find out how. That was simple huh?

Nice runs 701-800 looks smoth, good luck on the 6 kc 801-900, then possibly 901-1000 after that?

Without a doubt!!!

Runs 901-1000 will be at 12 KC just to fill in that range of numbers and see how the data inflences the trends. I will however, have to stop soon and do some more farming and fishing to restock my Food and my Super Restores.

I have enough to do about 25 more runs and then i'll have to stop.

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Is Your Name On This List? Your friends are listed here, why arn't you? Maybe you are wondering just how DO you get your name on that list? Send me a PM and find out how. That was simple huh?

Well atm I've only made about 10 runs as I've been busy over the last few days, but I hope to get a decent amount in over the holidays. I also hope I'll get my second item soon (only one so far 71 runs and counting).

Also, do you think it would be profitable to drink pots to restore prayer, or go to the nature altar/ tele. Would the time taken going to and from the altar be worth the extra 3 or so doses per run?

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Yea and sorry bro bout that

1st trip i got Flail

5th trip i got flail

=]

ive only done 5 trips

Nice return, current Flail prices are running $950,000 to $1,200,000 so you can sell both for a nice 2 mil profit or just one and keep the other till you get full Verac's



First what do you mean by “alter/tele”? That ‘tele’ piece has confused me a bit

Stay with it and you are bound to get more drops eventually. (We can only hope)


If you use the alter, you use less pots on each run which means you get more runs for the same amount of pots, more runs means more potential Brother drops which means more money.

The downside is that you lose lots of time, every run means a trip past the general store, through the winding path to the Nature alter. How many minutes does that add to each run both ways?

I don't like to be slowed down, I use the store, I only use the bank when I have to deposit drops because they are starting to take up food and pot slots.

It costs me more, but I am willing to pay it because it is a hidden cost. By that I mean that I make Gold on every run to the chest, that same gold is then used to swap pots and food every 3-4 runs. So I never have to get gold out. Like Minds and Deaths, while I might not be putting them all in the bank, I am not buying any either.

Some people buy logs to fletch, some cut their own. Like you question, there is no right answer to this. It's a personal tradeoff issue. You will be trading time for money, which is more valuable to you?

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Is Your Name On This List? Your friends are listed here, why arn't you? Maybe you are wondering just how DO you get your name on that list? Send me a PM and find out how. That was simple huh?

Hey Rarius, can I come Barrow Hunting with ya?

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By the "altar/tele" i meant that go to the nature altar or tele somewhere else to recharge prayer. The whole trip to the nature altar and back takes around 2 mins running and about twice that walking. Never actually timed it though. As for the pots that makes sense and I think that as soon as I start making money from barrows I can use the pots to restore prayer

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With your luck i would give up after about 9 million runs and torag hams it isn't ver good eh

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very nice rarius and i totaly feel you on the part about playing for fun.
i mean unless gaining tons of money was fun then whats the point anyways...its always nice to be loaded but money is money so u can spend it not save it forever
mmm 1000 snaps mmmm lol

Gl with 1000 trips cant wait to see all the results.

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GF to my imageshack based sig.