Mafia Revival, 2of4: Town wins!

Spirographed · **Posted:** August 2nd, 2016, 2:41 pm

It couldn't have gone any better last night. Jailkeeper, here. We can take out 50% of the mafia right here and now.
I jailed Sparky last night, and look what we caught.

Spirographed · **Posted:** August 2nd, 2016, 2:44 pm

In case this lynch happens really quick. Doctor, if you exist, please protect me tonight. I am the closest thing we have to a Detective...unless there's a Detective and no Dr. If that's the case, it's been real comrade. Avenge me!!!

SparkyAMS · **Posted:** August 2nd, 2016, 3:42 pm

Huh. I was sure surprised to see those posts... Well I've though long and hard about this, and have come up with only three possible options for what happened.

1) Spiro did put me in jail, but the mafia decided to not actually kill anyone last night, so that on the off chance there was a jail-keeper, this exact situation would happen. (This is my hope)

2) Spiro is flat out lying, using the fact that a jail-keeper did indeed stop a kill last night, and taking the credit for it.

3) I am mafia ((I am not) Though his argument is compelling so I would not blame you if you did lynch me)

:S

I'm not going to vote for Spiro in case it was option 2

If anyone else has any theories or knows how else this could have happened please let me know I guess

SparkyAMS · **Posted:** August 2nd, 2016, 3:50 pm

Of course if I do get lynched and you see I'm a villager, there would be no reason for the doc to save Spiro? So why would he lie... I'm gonna say that option 2 has to be it because there is nothing to gain from him doing this otherwise? I'm digging a hole here but I just can't wrap my head around this

Spirographed · **Posted:** August 2nd, 2016, 4:07 pm

SparkyAMS wrote:

1) Spiro did put me in jail, but the mafia decided to not actually kill anyone last night, so that on the off chance there was a jail-keeper, this exact situation would happen. (This is my hope)

Why would the mafia ever not kill anyone? This is fluff.

SparkyAMS wrote:

2) Spiro is flat out lying, using the fact that a jail-keeper did indeed stop a kill last night, and taking the credit for it.

If that's true, then the "real" Jailkeeper only has to back this up. Won't happen, because I am he.

SparkyAMS wrote:

3) I am mafia ((I am not) Though his argument is compelling so I would not blame you if you did lynch me)

Yes, exactly, minus the (I am not).

SparkyAMS wrote:

I'm not going to vote for Spiro in case it was option 2

You wouldn't vote for....the liar?

Spirographed · **Posted:** August 2nd, 2016, 4:13 pm

SparkyAMS wrote:

Of course if I do get lynched and you see I'm a villager, there would be no reason for the doc to save Spiro? So why would he lie... I'm gonna say that option 2 has to be it because there is nothing to gain from him doing this otherwise? I'm digging a hole here but I just can't wrap my head around this

There's another mafia out there, and I, as the Jailkeeper, would be a prime target for the remaining mafia. It's pretty obvious that I would be a target. I'm all for discussion, though. Even the obvious stuff.

Please protect me, though, Dr, if you exist. That should go without saying, although I am saying.

SparkyAMS · **Posted:** August 2nd, 2016, 4:35 pm

"Why would the mafia not kill anyone?" To find out what the roles were? Which has happened one way or anther now.

"the "real" Jail keeper only has to back this up" Well I sure hope so!

And I meant option 1, not 2. Though that should go without saying, although I am saying...

I guess option 4 is that they didn't try to kill anyone, AND there is no Jail Keeper. But that would make YOU a mafia then eh Spiro? So I guess that can't be it...

Spirographed · **Posted:** August 2nd, 2016, 4:44 pm

Lol. We went through this last game with Pyro... there would be no benefit for a mafia to false claim a shot in the dark like that. That draws attention to them, and at any point the real role can say "Hello". The person gets lynched, and the mafia that false claims gets lynched the next day. Why not hide and take town out silently at night?

SparkyAMS · **Posted:** August 2nd, 2016, 5:07 pm

I completely agree, that's why I think they didn't kill anyone, so the Jail Keeper would think they caught a mafia member. Making us bicker back and forth until one of us is dead. They get their kill, but with no blood on their hands, AND with a role or two revealed.

I'll admit, there's not much wiggle room for me to defend myself here, but I don't know what else to do man!

Frank 4.0.1 · **Posted:** August 2nd, 2016, 5:31 pm

Spirographed wrote:

It couldn't have gone any better last night. Jailkeeper, here. We can take out 50% of the mafia right here and now.
I jailed Sparky last night, and look what we caught.

The Games we could be in wrote:

Mafia Goon, Mafia Stalker, 6 Villagers, Jailkeeper.
Mafia Goon, Mafia Stalker, 5 Villagers, Detective, Jailkeeper.
Mafia Goon, Mafia Stalker, 5 Villagers, Doctor, Jailkeeper.

Spiro wrote:

and look what we caught

Sparky wrote:

1) Spiro did put me in jail, but the mafia decided to not actually kill anyone last night, so that on the off chance there was a jail-keeper, this exact situation would happen. (This is my hope)

Sparky wrote:

2) Spiro is flat out lying, using the fact that a jail-keeper did indeed stop a kill last night, and taking the credit for it.

Strange Narration wrote:

Nobody even showed signs of being attacked.

Sparky

Frank 4.0.1 · **Posted:** August 2nd, 2016, 5:49 pm

Sparky wrote:

"Why would the mafia not kill anyone?" To find out what the roles were? Which has happened one way or anther now.

Sparky wrote:

I completely agree, that's why I think they didn't kill anyone, so the Jail Keeper would think they caught a mafia member. Making us bicker back and forth until one of us is dead. They get their kill, but with no blood on their hands, AND with a role or two revealed.

Pyro3000 · **Posted:** August 2nd, 2016, 5:51 pm

Yeah, I don't think so.

If Spiro is the jailkeeper, why assume he captured the mafia and not a target of the mafia?

If Spiro is mafia, doesn't this mean that he's essentially lured the real jailkeeper's attention and knows that he'll get targeted again, allowing for the other member to freely perform the kill tonight?

So here are the plays:

We lynch Sparky, and he's mafia: We're down to 1 mafia, but the jailkeeper is certain to die the next night. In the end, we have an even exchange. We kill a mafia day 2, but have a 66% chance of losing the jailkeeper the next night if the mafia attacks Spiro.

We lynch Sparky, and he's villager: We still have 2 mafia, but Spiro will probably die the next day, and we get a mafia kill Day 3

We lynch Sparky, and he's a special role: Self explanatory. Bad idea. We get a Mafia kill Day 3, but lose a detective or doctor Day 2.

We lynch Spiro, and he's mafia: We're down to 1 mafia, the real jailkeeper can jail someone else and possibly spot the other mafia or protect someone. We successfully kill a mafia Day 2, and maybe get a mafia kill Day 3.

We lynch Spiro, and he's villager: We wonder why he role claimed and risked a random villager. This is a completely illogical scenario.

We lynch Spiro and he's jailkeeper: We've lost a special role, but we know that his claim on Sparky was true. Spiro has a 66% chance of not having a doctor in the game to protect him and is likely to be killed the next night anyway. We successfully kill a mafia Day 3.

So let's look at the most likely scenarios that these turn into.

Spiro is jailkeeper, and Sparky really is mafia: We down a mafia today on Day 2, but most likely lose our jailkeeper on Night 2. I doubt it's lost on them that there is only a 33% chance of there being a doctor to begin with. Not to mention they wouldn't want to risk a repeat of today where they were jailed and outed. They'll go for the confirmed role.

Spiro is mafia, and Sparky is villager: We're down a villager, and the real jailkeeper will be obligated to jail Spiro. The mafia can freely kill the next night knowing that Spiro can't be the one to carry out the kill.

Spiro is mafia, and Sparky is a special role: Do we really need to discuss how bad that would be for us?

Now, going by the day post, it looks like there was no struggle at all, and no ones house was messed up. I assume we would have heard that a jailed victims house was messed up if they were attacked. Which means that a mafia member WAS jailed last night. Now, this obviously means that the person jailed would be at a desperate play, and what better play than to claim jailkeeper, out the real one, and ensure that the other mafia member won't be a target during the night? Meanwhile, wouldn't the real jailkeeper find it more beneficial to wait quietly, see who sides with the person he knows is mafia, and then reveal what happened? By revealing a role early, the floor just gets opened up for the other mafia member to side with the jailkeeper and boost his image to the villagers.

We risk more by following Spiro's play than we do by following Sparky's play.

I'm voting Spirographed. In the event that I'm wrong, then we still know who to kill tomorrow. Letting both live will just keep up confusion, and letting Spiro live only to find out he's mafia will increase our risks.

Topsummoner · **Posted:** August 2nd, 2016, 5:59 pm

On request I've gone ahead and added a Letter designation to each of the possible setups in the first post for ease of discussion.

I also clarified that, as per usual, any successful protections would be announced in the day start post, whether they were by a Doctor or a Jailkeeper, but the flavor text will not clarify which of the two it was.

Frank 4.0.1 · **Posted:** August 2nd, 2016, 6:11 pm

Topsummoner wrote:

...any successful protections would be announced in the day start post... Jailkeeper.

Spirographed · **Posted:** August 2nd, 2016, 6:20 pm

Thanks Top.

Frank, It means if I protected Sparky from a mafia kill, it would read as so.

Pyro, that answers your opening question (which you actually answered yourself further down in your post {you're right, there was no mess in a house}).

I don't see the logic in not going for the guy that the Jailkeeper jailed, when the flavor text backs it up.

Pyro, those are great thoughts, but you've missed the mark, my friend. We can take out 50% of the mafia here.

SparkyAMS · **Posted:** August 2nd, 2016, 6:33 pm

Pyro3000 wrote:

If Spiro is the jailkeeper, why assume he captured the mafia and not a target of the mafia?

I didn't even think of that! That would explain a lot. In which case there was no plot or plan, just good luck as a jail-based protection, and bad luck in not knowing the circumstances. Unvote Spiro

Also Frank, for being the second nail driver.

SparkyAMS · **Posted:** August 2nd, 2016, 6:36 pm

For you sake Spiro, I hope its option "C", but that's a 1 in 6 chance so good luck.

Spirographed · **Posted:** August 2nd, 2016, 6:43 pm

Lol. That theory was just laid to rest, dude.

SparkyAMS · **Posted:** August 2nd, 2016, 6:48 pm

Oh you're right I didn't get what Top meant until you said that. Hmm. Well might as well stick with the one defending me ish then. Unvote Frank.

Spiro

Pyro3000 · **Posted:** August 2nd, 2016, 6:53 pm

Spirographed wrote:

Thanks Top.

Frank, It means if I protected Sparky from a mafia kill, it would read as so.

Pyro, that answers your opening question (which you actually answered yourself further down in your post {you're right, there was no mess in a house}).

Which I guess means the person that was jailed is, without a doubt, mafia.

Spirographed wrote:

I don't see the logic in not going for the guy that the Jailkeeper jailed, when the flavor text backs it up.

You're right. I fully agree.

Spirographed wrote:

Pyro, those are great thoughts, but you've missed the mark, my friend. We can take out 50% of the mafia here.

Except, if we kill Sparky, we most likely aren't taking out 50% of the mafia. But, if we take you out we definitely are.

After all, you're the one that was actually in jail last night.

Mafia Revival, 2of4: Town wins!

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