A Very British Mafia [Town Wins]

Riptide · **Posted:** January 31st, 2014, 7:03 pm

I'm honestly surprised Lander or Sighence wasn't taken out first. Usually the mafia vets are the first one to go.

Landerpurex · **Posted:** January 31st, 2014, 8:30 pm

Dr Henry wrote:

Thr wrote:

Well... Out of all the people I didn't expect market to be the one killed.

That's exactly what the mafia would say!

Time to be serious, Dr Henry.

You guys fail to realize that we know there is a detective, doctor, and mafia roleblocker in this game. Doc, myself, and Monk are the primary doctor targets for the reasons you all mentioned. The mafia is clearly rolehunting while trying to avoid the doctor.

Muscular Ape · **Posted:** January 31st, 2014, 9:24 pm

Hard to know (for someone playing/watching their first RV game anyway) whether the mafia didn't target popular targets because they are the popular targets or because they just want us to think they are the popular targets. Of course, maybe they just felt like killing the first person the list.

Riptide · **Posted:** January 31st, 2014, 9:35 pm

Muscular Ape wrote:

Hard to know (for someone playing/watching their first RV game anyway) whether the mafia didn't target popular targets because they are the popular targets or because they just want us to think they are the popular targets. Of course, maybe they just felt like killing the first person the list.

Doc, Sighence/Monk, Kikori, and Lander are the biggest targets by far. If they're out, the game becomes easier for the Mafia.

Landerpurex wrote:

You guys fail to realize that we know there is a detective, doctor, and mafia roleblocker in this game. Doc, myself, and Monk are the primary doctor targets for the reasons you all mentioned. The mafia is clearly rolehunting while trying to avoid the doctor.

Why Doc then, and not Monk?

Dr Henry · **Posted:** January 31st, 2014, 9:47 pm

Landerpurex wrote:

Dr Henry wrote:

Thr wrote:

Well... Out of all the people I didn't expect market to be the one killed.

That's exactly what the mafia would say!

Time to be serious, Dr Henry.

You guys fail to realize that we know there is a detective, doctor, and mafia roleblocker in this game. Doc, myself, and Monk are the primary doctor targets for the reasons you all mentioned. The mafia is clearly rolehunting while trying to avoid the doctor.

Want to explain your vote?

If it was for not being serious, there still wasn't much to go on, and I was pointing out a valid fact that a mafia is usually the first to make a comment on what happened the night before, without actually contributing. Experienced or not, Thr could easily have been guided by an experienced mafia and told that Market isn't a likely target, thereby explaining his comment to be more than it may first seem.

FoS Thr

If it is because I survived N1... well that is just a poor reason to vote for me.

Also @ Riptide, Musc is very possibly one of the best players in the game, judging by his time playing on other forums. He may not know our meta as much, but I see him as a dark horse who could easily be a mafia knowing how to play the game and turn the vets against each other, or a villager worthy of targetting early.

Fact is, most players have been around long enough to be valid N1 targets.

Spirographed · **Posted:** January 31st, 2014, 10:46 pm

I agree with Henry. Most have been around long enough... That's why I think it's an activity vote.
FOS: Lander

Spirographed · **Posted:** January 31st, 2014, 10:47 pm

Activity *kill

Not activity vote.

Muscular Ape · **Posted:** February 1st, 2014, 2:47 am

Dr Henry wrote:

and I was pointing out a valid fact that a mafia is usually the first to make a comment on what happened the night before, without actually contributing.

It is valid. The equivalent in power role heavy games is usually something like "I'm so confused, what happened there?".

Dr Henry wrote:

Also @ Riptide, Musc is very possibly one of the best players in the game, judging by his time playing on other forums.

As I said in the sign-up thread, the games are so different I may as well have only played one game before. This is the first 'traditional' style game I have played.

I am interested in seeing Lander's clarification of why he chose to vote for Dr Henry over Sighence, though.

Landerpurex · **Posted:** February 1st, 2014, 7:23 pm

I voted for you because in a game of this size, with so few roles, we need to produce our own information rather than rely on the detective coming forward. I voted for you because you should be doing what I'm currently trying to do, as quickly as possible. Instead, you chose to make a joke. This is as good a reason as any to vote at this stage.

What's more is you FOS'ed Thr and Defeat FOS'ed me without votes. Cast votes. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I have never been a fan of FOS'es and never will be, especially if your vote isn't already cast.

I wouldn't vote you for the sole reason that you're alive, especially at this point in the game. Did you miss the part where I said we are all alive on D2 because we are prime doctor targets? Ape made a good point, but we have to be careful in entertaining too much WIFOM. We are either still alive because we are mafia, or because we are prime doctor targets. We won't be able to deduce whether or not the former is true until the doctor is dead and we start to die, or we have more info.

Always the one to stir the pot, often the one to be burned. I wouldn't have it any other way.

Careful of the ones trying to avoid the discussion.

Riptide · **Posted:** February 1st, 2014, 7:58 pm

Landerpurex wrote:

I wouldn't vote you for the sole reason that you're alive, especially at this point in the game. Did you miss the part where I said we are all alive on D2 because we are prime doctor targets?... We are either still alive because we are mafia, or because we are prime doctor targets. We won't be able to deduce whether or not the former is true until the doctor is dead and we start to die, or we have more info.

You're not proven innocent either. Isn't it customary for there to be a description if someone was attacked but saved the doctor? Ex they had bandages on them or something? All the prime doctor targets weren't attacked at all, you included. Any one of you three could be mafia, or god forbid, two of you.

Thr · **Posted:** February 1st, 2014, 8:05 pm

So because I posted first I suddenly seem like Mafia. I would gladly have said something useful but it was the beginning of day two and I didn't have anything to go on. I just wanted to start a conversion.

Dr Henry · **Posted:** February 1st, 2014, 8:23 pm

Landerpurex wrote:

I voted for you because in a game of this size, with so few roles, we need to produce our own information rather than rely on the detective coming forward. I voted for you because you should be doing what I'm currently trying to do, as quickly as possible. Instead, you chose to make a joke. This is as good a reason as any to vote at this stage.

What's more is you FOS'ed Thr and Defeat FOS'ed me without votes. Cast votes. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I have never been a fan of FOS'es and never will be, especially if your vote isn't already cast.

I wouldn't vote you for the sole reason that you're alive, especially at this point in the game. Did you miss the part where I said we are all alive on D2 because we are prime doctor targets? Ape made a good point, but we have to be careful in entertaining too much WIFOM. We are either still alive because we are mafia, or because we are prime doctor targets. We won't be able to deduce whether or not the former is true until the doctor is dead and we start to die, or we have more info.

Always the one to stir the pot, often the one to be burned. I wouldn't have it any other way.

Careful of the ones trying to avoid the discussion.

Didn't vote for Thr as I was waiting for your response before voting for you. Your reasoning seems fairly poor, I expected better from you.

Trying to point out, more than anyone else, that one of us should be big targets for the mafia early on just screams like a mafia ploy to turn suspicion onto me and either waste the day into a no-lynch and free mafia kill, or set me up for a later lynch just by purposefully not killing me at night. Out of those you are drawing attention to, you stand in the better position as you have a vote cast, so I am one nearer to lynch and therefore a 'viable option' to 'gather information'.

Lander.

Muscular Ape · **Posted:** February 1st, 2014, 8:46 pm

A conversion Thr? Nobody said anything about a cult

I was misunderstanding what people were referring to at first when speaking of prime doctor targets. Probably doesn't help that Dr Henry is playing in that regard. Either way, I follow the logic now.

Intriguing that in a game with this set-up, assuming the mafia are successful in all their kills, it's game over if we were to lynch two townspeople. Quite a low margin of error compared to what I'm used to.

Assuming, too, that our investigator didn't investigate Market Man Night 1 (1/7 chance assuming random), isn't the person lynched (1/8 assuming random/someone is lynched), doesn't investigate the townsperson who dies (assuming one does) this night phase (1/4 chance assuming random), then by tomorrow's day phase they will know exactly who the two mafia are regardless of who they choose to investigate. That is also assuming they weren't roleblocked Night 1 (5/6 chance assuming random/mafia don't also roleblock the person they kill) and also not roleblocked Night 2 (3/4 chance assuming not random/mafia don't also roleblock the person they kill).

Why am I waffling on about this? Just trying to work out whether it's best to lynch someone or to not lynch someone based on the numbers in this type of game from a town perspective.

For an RV newbie, have the success rates for town generally relied heavily on lynches or non-lynches on days other than Day 1?

Thr · **Posted:** February 1st, 2014, 9:32 pm

Ya know what Thr because I can. Also on a more productive note, taking ape's analysis into mind I think holding off on lynching might be a good idea. So long as our detective doesn't die. Just my input on the matter.

Muscular Ape · **Posted:** February 1st, 2014, 9:41 pm

I don't think it really supports either option, that's why I asked the last question in my post. I also got one minor detail wrong, if that hypothetical played out, we'd only know the two mafia members if the investigator had investigated the remaining townie.

Thr · **Posted:** February 1st, 2014, 9:51 pm

Its only my second game so I wouldn't know. As for my other statement I was just saying what I thought based on your deduction. Not saying that I was agreeing on something.

Landerpurex · **Posted:** February 2nd, 2014, 12:02 am

Riptide wrote:

Landerpurex wrote:

I wouldn't vote you for the sole reason that you're alive, especially at this point in the game. Did you miss the part where I said we are all alive on D2 because we are prime doctor targets?... We are either still alive because we are mafia, or because we are prime doctor targets. We won't be able to deduce whether or not the former is true until the doctor is dead and we start to die, or we have more info.

You're not proven innocent either. Isn't it customary for there to be a description if someone was attacked but saved the doctor? Ex they had bandages on them or something? All the prime doctor targets weren't attacked at all, you included. Any one of you three could be mafia, or god forbid, two of you.

I wasn't saying that. Merely implying it is the most likely possibility. The mafia do not want to risk a botched attack, and hence, they did not target myself, Doc, or Monk. Speaking of Monk, WHERE IS MONK?

You should know by now that when I am a townie, I am not concerned with proving my innocence, but rather, proving others' guilt. I know I am innocent, whether or not you believe that doesn't really matter to me. IF I'm lynched, and WHEN I flip town, you'll be forced to reevaluate everything I've said.

That leads me to Doc.

Dr Henry wrote:

Landerpurex wrote:

stuff I wrote

Didn't vote for Thr as I was waiting for your response before voting for you. Your reasoning seems fairly poor, I expected better from you.

Trying to point out, more than anyone else, that one of us should be big targets for the mafia early on just screams like a mafia ploy to turn suspicion onto me and either waste the day into a no-lynch and free mafia kill, or set me up for a later lynch just by purposefully not killing me at night. Out of those you are drawing attention to, you stand in the better position as you have a vote cast, so I am one nearer to lynch and therefore a 'viable option' to 'gather information'.

Lander.

Fairly poor? Of course it was, there are only a handful of actual posts to go on. Still fairly poor? Read on.

You spin a few hypothetical conspiracy theories that really don't make any sense. I am not the kind of person to enact such elaborate plans as mafia, because it's the best way to be caught. The first thing that happens when a townie is lynched after deliberation is the person who started the train is looked at. Your whole mention of 'purposefully not killing me' could be seen as a little blurb of 'i said this earlier, see' later on when you are alive and you are suspected to be mafia. And waste the day in a no kill? Is that what you see this as? Because rest assured, I am trying to see you lynched.

And to top it all off, an OMGUS vote. (see RVs guide to mafia in this very forum for the definition of that, newbies) And you expected better from ME.

That said, I will also respond to Ape. Because he raises yet another good point. Without really saying anything of substance...

We traditionally will lynch rather than not lynch except in the case of gross inactivity. Waiting for a detective to come forward is a bad, bad, BAD idea and I'm surprised you've suggested it. Because a detective can be killed at any time, while waiting for a mafia reading or enough townie readings for a process of elimination. They could be killed N2 or N3 without ever breathing a word, and forgoing a lynch that will generate solid, quantifiable evidence is just plain dangerous. In my opinion. Though it may be true we have to proceed with especial caution because of the size of the game, I am willing to risk a mislynch vs a dead detective and us practically giving the game away that way by waiting it out.

Anyways, if we're just waiting and no one is to be lynched, why play? What's there to do during the day? :awesome:

Muscular Ape · **Posted:** February 2nd, 2014, 1:04 am

Landerpurex wrote:

That said, I will also respond to Ape. Because he raises yet another good point. Without really saying anything of substance...

We traditionally will lynch rather than not lynch except in the case of gross inactivity. Waiting for a detective to come forward is a bad, bad, BAD idea and I'm surprised you've suggested it. Because a detective can be killed at any time, while waiting for a mafia reading or enough townie readings for a process of elimination. They could be killed N2 or N3 without ever breathing a word, and forgoing a lynch that will generate solid, quantifiable evidence is just plain dangerous. In my opinion. Though it may be true we have to proceed with especial caution because of the size of the game, I am willing to risk a mislynch vs a dead detective and us practically giving the game away that way by waiting it out.

Anyways, if we're just waiting and no one is to be lynched, why play? What's there to do during the day? :awesome:

I'm mostly just theorycrafting. I've never played a mafia game with less than 20 people, haha. It's all so different!

The hypothetical I provided was the result of crunching some basic probability assuming random choices (which is a reasonable assumption for some of the probabilities, unreasonable for others). It was an example of a favourable result for town that has a reasonable chance of occurring even with the setback of lynching a townsperson (that isn't the investigator or the investigated). I wasn't suggesting we wait and twiddle our thumbs for a detective, quite the opposite actually; the hypothetical situation I crafted contained the assumption of a lynch today. As you say, the 'wait and see' plan is easily foiled with the early death of the detective. I am unsure on the 'lynch vs non-lynch' consideration mostly due to inexperience. The hypothetical alone didn't really convince me either way. What it does provide is an example of how a mislynch can still actually benefit town under somewhat realistic circumstances.

If someone who is experienced in these types of games believes that it is better to lynch, I'd be inclined to take their word for it (although more opinions would be welcomed to ensure I'm not being led on).

One thing is for certain: Assuming the mafia's kills are successful each night (90.5% random chance that it will be tonight for example), lynching two townspeople will result in a mafia win. If one mislynch occurs, the next lynch ought to be damn good.

Unfortunately, as far as an actual vote goes, I'm still on the fence. I don't find the arguments for Dr Henry & Lander particularly compelling at this stage. There is a lot of talk of about Dr Henry & Lander both being prime doctor targets, but what of our silent friend Monk?

Do any of the other quiet folk have anything to add before I cast my vote?

Spirographed · **Posted:** February 2nd, 2014, 1:26 pm

Lander, explain why some are "primary Drtargets". It's always been my experience that the Dr. self protects until they get an inkling of who the Detective is.

Aragorn Ix · **Posted:** February 2nd, 2014, 4:18 pm

Just a heads up: you have just under 15 hours of daytime left.

A Very British Mafia [Town Wins]

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