This is indecent, and I am appalled you would write such smut.

So I'll do the quick obvious deductive work. Mafia targetted Dr Henry and Sighence, so people on those lists are two of the mafia.

With Sighence on their list:
Aragorn
defeat
Ex Rex
Jackstick
Rory
Topsummoner

With Dr Henry on their list:
defeat
Godders
Market Man
PenguinGuy
Sighence (dead)
Tennis Ace
Topsummoner

Godders has eight people on his list

Some names are crossed out, I'm going to guess that means they are decoys revealed by some role?

Anyway, of these ten two are mafia. Those are the obvious deductions. I'm going to guess that mafia purposefully picked those two people because they thought they would be on many people's lists; neither are good traditional targets for N1 kills, as both have a tendency to either self-incriminate or play into the mafia's plans. I don't think we should discount the chance Dr Henry is mafia, his muting could be a ruse.

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This reminds me of a variant on the Jester/Fool role, where they can visit a player during the night to perform no consequential action, simply to throw off Tracker/Watcher style roles. This could be what we are seeing, keep that in the backs of your mind for anyone acting overtly suspicious who visited Sighence tonight, a list which Penguin conveniently compiled in the above post.

Bummer we weren't told what Sighence's role did. Knowing his role name alone won't help us determine what was significant about his actions, meaning the same applies for all future deaths.

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Woh woh woh. You all need to get me off your lists, lest ye be judged. Also: Dr. Henry

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Care to elaborate?

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We dont know that the person who targeted Dr Henry, far from it. We do need to start targeting those who had Sighence on their list though.

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The magic pen holder allows you to choose a player who will have one of his fake choices striked out. I am a magic pen holder as Sighence was, and as are a few other people considering how many strike-throughs there were on the lists.

Thankfully the strike-throughs give us a bit of an edge here. Defeat had 2 strike-throughs and also targeted Sighence. Mathematically he gives us the best odds of all of the people who targeted Sighence (1 in 4 chance he actually targeted him). If anyone has any better thoughts Im open to hear them, but Ill usually side with the math.

Defeat

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Not a problem.

The mafia are almost sure to use one of their own to mute as there hasn't been time for them to figure out who would need a good muting. Mafia don't usually *want* to talk.

Yeah. And you may be killing this fool/jester that was mentioned. Smart.

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Also, all the Magic Pen Holders should combine forces here to make our targeting more effective. Again, we should be looking at those who targeted Sighence. I'm randomly going to select Rory as the magical pen target for this upcoming night. I urge my fellow magic pen holders to join me.

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Is the person who mutes another player definitely a member of the Mafia?

At this point, I think it's best to target someone who included Sighence on their list, and I'll side with math at this point unless someone can change my mind with a better conclusion.

defeat

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Ooh ooh ah ah!

Actually, unvote. I want to wait a little.

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Ooh ooh ah ah!

Sorry for the triple post because we can't edit, right? But just looking at the results, in addition to the people Penguinguy posted, Sparky also included Dr Henry on his list.

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Ooh ooh ah ah!

I wouldn't say certain; nothing in this game is ever certain. However, your point is still valid. If the mafia mute one of their own, it gives that member an excuse not to talk, and not to expose them selves. That also prevents them from manipulating the village, as one of the mafia's greatest strengths is their numbers. Either are likely, and the muting is not proof Henry is mafia.

Did you seriously just soft-claim jester?

Yes. Muter (also called a witch) is always a mafia role. Discussion is the town's greatest tool, preventing people from talking is of no benefit to the town.

I'm not sure that is the best idea. Generally the town making plots during the day only gives the mafia to subvert those plans at night, but I doubt we can avoid that. What we should worry about, is the chance that the mafia doesn't have a designated hitman, and that they can chose. If that is the case, then we could easily falsely confirm a mafia member.

That is correct, my mistake, I apologize.

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Yeah, I think it would be almost too easy to say that Dr Henry was muted by one of his own (In the case that he is mafia), it seems a bit rushed to use that as reasoning to conclude that Dr Henry is mafia. He COULD be, but we don't know.

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That soft claim of a jester type role combined with what I think is a poor attack on DH makes me think defeat is mafia. The fact that the numbers suggest this is helps too.

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|Items and Monster Database Staff|Villager Writer|Guide Writer|
|Legend|
Gamestar is my twin

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Nah. You're over-complicating things. He's mafia. My vote stands. And who soft claimed anything. What people always fail to recognize in my game are the suggestions. They always take them as "Ohp. Derp. Defeat said this...He's claiming. He must be mafia. HHe said this but means this and therefore must be this." Settle down, kids. Let's not complicate things. Help me kill Dr. H, and then we'll move on to the next. I get done. My game is flawless. I always win. Why not win with me?

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Ya, I considered this as well. It would be a huge advantage to the mafia though. And even if we did falsely confirm a mafia member, at least we would learn what we were up against. If by chance we can kill the Godfather this easily, I think we need to go after that chance 100%.

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Right now, there's a 1/4 chance that defeat is the Godfather, according to his list. Just looking at it numerically, the odds aren't in our favor. Are we really that willing to go after him as a Godfather? Wouldn't the Godfather role just switch over to the next Mafioso anyway?

I do think, right now, if we should weigh the consequences of Dr Henry vs. defeat.

Scenario 1:
We lynch defeat-
If defeat is Mafia, then Dr Henry should almost definitely be a Villager, and if Defeat is a Villager, then at least we know his claims aren't attempts to rowel the rest of us on Dr Henry's role. It's very convenient for Defeat right now that Dr Henry is muted and can't defend himself.

Scenario 2:
We lynch Dr Henry-
If we lynch Dr Henry and he is a Villager, then defeat could very well be a Mafioso. If Dr Henry is a Mafioso, then defeat is almost certainly not a member of the Mafia. I feel like defeat's accusation of Dr Henry comes seemingly out of nowhere and could be a very planned Mafia tactic, possibly planned on Night 1.

At this point, it's almost too risky either way in my opinion. Whether we think 25% is good enough odds to predict that defeat is the Godfather vs. dwindling the Villager numbers.

And I just want to get peoples' opinions on this. We had 5 names struck out last night. Do we actually believe there are FIVE Magic Pen Holders???

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Ooh ooh ah ah!

There wouldn't be a sure way for him to defend himself even if he could...the mafia know this. The mute itself is the tactic.

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Nothing risked nothing gained. Defeat.

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JIMMY IMAGE FOR PRESIDENT!

Wa-wa-we-wa

defeat

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