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 Post subject: Re: Mafia XXIII - Mountain Village Edition - Day 3
PostPosted: August 16th, 2012, 7:19 pm 
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PenguinGuy. Not often I outright typo names.

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia XXIII - Mountain Village Edition - Day 3
PostPosted: August 16th, 2012, 8:26 pm 
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Or they couldn't get on in time to dogpile. I think they tried, but that's suspicion for another time.

I see your point, but I'd think Penguin wouldn't have such an obvious and self-incriminating kill pattern. No, the setup's too convenient.


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 Post subject: Re: Mafia XXIII - Mountain Village Edition - Day 3
PostPosted: August 16th, 2012, 8:41 pm 
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What do you mean on in time? If Godders was the last Mafia, I'd be hammered. Dead.
If Aragorn was the last Mafia, I'd be hammered. Dead.
3/4 the way there and two people didn't take the chance. Godders messed up the Mafia because he's not Mafia. He was stupid enough not to vote for PenguinGuy, but we can be damn sure Godders isn't Mafia. We can be damn sure Aragorn isn't Mafia.
I'm effectively proven. I was the near kill, and Godders messed up the plan.

Sorry, but Finger of Suspicion on you, bigtime. The first to try to vote for Godders, especially as logical as you have been. I can't help but see that as having a chance of being "Fuzzy Bunny, the plan failed, but I can get the detective dead out of this."

My vote on Penguin stands. Godders stands as the detective because the Mafia had zero reasons to play that card. My gut still says Topsummoner after that, my head now thinks you.

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia XXIII - Mountain Village Edition - Day 3
PostPosted: August 16th, 2012, 8:59 pm 
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C'mon, Monk. Your one single other explanation is right there. What's the fault in my logic about me, Aragorn, and Godders being cleared?

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia XXIII - Mountain Village Edition - Day 3
PostPosted: August 16th, 2012, 9:01 pm 
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... which is why I changed my vote instead of waiting for the last mafia to get his act together. Right.

(also if any in that list mafia they'd be hard-pressed to vote for you, so no, they're not clear)

The mafia could easily go with a now-unchallenged fake detective had they killed him either of the past two nights. Godders, with his lower activity, was the best choice for that, framing Penguin for the last kill. No, it's Godders, you, and probably Aragorn.


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 Post subject: Re: Mafia XXIII - Mountain Village Edition - Day 3
PostPosted: August 16th, 2012, 9:02 pm 
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Goad, successful.
I ask the crowd's attention before wrapping up 2/3 of the mafia here. I.E. No voting until my next post is done, if you please.

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia XXIII - Mountain Village Edition - Day 3
PostPosted: August 16th, 2012, 9:14 pm 
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Murder-mystery style reveals aren't done by the murderer, Kik. Phrase things very carefully.


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 Post subject: Re: Mafia XXIII - Mountain Village Edition - Day 3
PostPosted: August 16th, 2012, 9:16 pm 
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Let's look at how the people seem to be divided up.

Monk, Top, and Riptide voted for me. 3/4 needed to hammer me.
Godders, claiming detectice, calls out Penguin.
Aragorn, suspecting Riptide, believes this.
Kikori suspects Top, Penguin is silent, Lander and Henry are dead.

We almost assuredly have three mafia. Two mafia for nine people? Highly improbable. 33% mafia rate is far more believable than... 2/9 is close to 22.5%, yes? So let's run under the assumption that there are three mafia until shown otherwise.

What happens if PenguinGuy is Mafia?
Godders is confirmed as Detective.
Aragorn, who had a chance to hammer Kikori, is practically proven Villager.
Kikori, who was nearly hammered, is practically proven Villager.
Because PenguinGuy, Mafia, was unable to hammer Kikori, it's safe to bet the other two Mafia were on board the train. This leaves Monk, Top, and Riptide to compose the Mafia.
Monk Basher is the almost complete certain choice. He has repeatedly defended PenguinGuy and chose to initiate the attack against Godders.
We get to work out after Godders' death who the last Mafia is before turning around and killing Monk. At the worst, 50/50 chance to kill the last Mafia on the last day.

What happens if Godders is lying about being Mafia?
Godders, as Mafia, screwed up a chance to kill me.
PenguinGuy would very likely be Villager.
Monk Basher would slightly less likely be Villager, due to being able to honestly defend Penguin.
Kikori would be mafia, who Godders took the chance to save.
One of the last Mafia would most likely be among the team voting for Kikori, who's built up some of the most suspicion in the game.

I'll go ahead and make the worst potential move possible for myself: reveal the one train of logic potentially used against me.
You have one way out of this, Monk.
"Kikori is Mafia and just saved his own ass by telling Godders to claim detective to get Penguin killed off".
You refused to take this one way. You, a smart player, did not see the smart lie because you were too busy trying to turn it into a way to defend your ally. You've defended him all day and tried to take out someone who claimed Detective. There is an undeniable link between you and PenguinGuy.
Day one? Post weird together.
Day two? Buddy buddy.
Day three? You defend him to all hell.
The entire time you're trying to debunk me for "not responding due to a quirk" the same way Henry (and to a point you, Monk) tried to debunk me in Neighbors. We all remember how that ended. The entire time you're protecting him, even from special roles.

Go ahead. Try to claim I made Godders call Detective just to cast suspicion off me. Try to turn this into "Kikori wants to sacrifice 2/3 the mafia just so the last one can win". Try to deny your link with Penguin.

I'll wait.

My vote on PenguinGuy stands.

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia XXIII - Mountain Village Edition - Day 3
PostPosted: August 16th, 2012, 11:26 pm 
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Godders
And Kikori too

I am not mafia. I am our doctor. N1 I protected Lander, and N2 Riptide. Kikori is mafia, and when he was so close to being lynched, Godders stepped up with a fake detective claim to bail him out. With two cleaned kills they must have killed our detective, and used this to claim unchallenged. Kikori has been suspcious all game, under fire from Lander, (who is now dead), and later Top, Monk, and myself. Godders has been inactive this whole game, trying to hide his role as mafia.

Kikori wrote:
There's only one logical problem with this. Why would it have to be Godders making this claim? Why would he have to in the first place? I was nearly dead. The Mafia, if there are three, either all but had the win and chose to play it fancy or all but had the win and Godders just screwed it up by taking the heat off me. Why would Godders need to claim Detective and try to peg one specific villager when another was already nearly dead, leaving the move open for the next day if the town somehow survives?


Why? Because you are Mafia with Godders, and he's trying to save you before you get lynched, by framing me. You two are the Mafia.

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia XXIII - Mountain Village Edition - Day 3
PostPosted: August 16th, 2012, 11:45 pm 
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There's one quite big flaw with your plan.

I'm a Villager.
Godders knows he's a villager.
Aragorn now knows he's a villager.
None of the above three will vote for Godders.

You chose the route that secures three people against you, and confirms Monk and you are linked. You want Godders dead? Three mafia together can nearly. Feel free to give away who your third ally is while you and Monk vote together for Godders.

By the way. I've ignored you two for having nothing against me, been under fire from Lander for all of one post and zero votes, and your idea that Godders is an inactive Mafia also applies to inactive Detective.
You've got nothing. It took YOU making the post against me to use my "one way out" rather than Monk, who couldn't afford to be the cement that tied you and him together.

You lose. Good day, sir.

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia XXIII - Mountain Village Edition - Day 3
PostPosted: August 17th, 2012, 12:19 am 
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Kikori wrote:
There's one quite big flaw with your plan.

I'm a Villager.
Godders knows he's a villager.
Aragorn now knows he's a villager.
None of the above three will vote for Godders.


Obviously you and Godders won't vote for Godders, since you two are the mafia. If there are three mafia, the third is Aragorn, although we do not know that for sure (if this is a 2of4 type game, where there's 9 players 2 mafia). If there is only two, and Aragorn is indeed a villager, hopefully he will see through your ruse and vote for Godders.

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia XXIII - Mountain Village Edition - Day 3
PostPosted: August 17th, 2012, 12:50 am 
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Well if you lynch Penguinguy the janitor peson wont be able to clean up the mess showing he is Mafia. And if for whatever reason he were to turn up village then i would happily belynched, after id had my Night 3 detectice role use, and give you the info from that, although id probably be killed.

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia XXIII - Mountain Village Edition - Day 3
PostPosted: August 17th, 2012, 1:01 am 
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Penguinguy.

Also i have never fake claimed anything before except in my first game, but that was because i was almost dead at that point as a 3rd Party serial killer.

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia XXIII - Mountain Village Edition - Day 3
PostPosted: August 17th, 2012, 1:32 am 
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Here's hoping penguinguy is the janitor then, Godders.

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia XXIII - Mountain Village Edition - Day 3
PostPosted: August 17th, 2012, 5:27 am 
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Godders wrote:
Penguinguy.

Also i have never fake claimed anything before except in my first game, but that was because i was almost dead at that point as a 3rd Party serial killer.

Doesn't mean you can't be doing it right now. :?:

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Kikori wrote:
Topsummoner wrote:
Riptide wrote:
I used to get you and J@n mixed up. Except your funnier. And nicer. Happy 21st bro!

Oh man Jan, you just got zinged by Riptide. How much does THAT suck?


Well, statistically speaking, slightly more than a giant suckusaur. A dire one.


PenguinGuy wrote:
Lets see if I remember how to play...

EX REX IS MAFIA SCUM FOURTHVOTER UNVILLAGE BLAH BLAH BLAH SCUM BLAH WINE IN FRONT OF ME BLAH BLAH META GAME BLAH BLAH BLAH SMELLS OF ELDERBERRIES BLAH

Right?


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 Post subject: Re: Mafia XXIII - Mountain Village Edition - Day 3
PostPosted: August 17th, 2012, 6:30 am 
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Riptide wrote:
Godders wrote:
Penguinguy.

Also i have never fake claimed anything before except in my first game, but that was because i was almost dead at that point as a 3rd Party serial killer.

Doesn't mean you can't be doing it right now. :?:


Yes, but im not very good at it.

If a Doctor protects someone at Night without someone attacking them would that person be notified? If so then i would believe Penguinguy to be aligned with Riptide, because ofcourse a Mafia partner would say that thy got protected by the Doctor.

I believe that the first person killed or lander was a Doctor and that Pengujnguy can use the info from the Janitor to claim Doctor without being unchallnged.

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia XXIII - Mountain Village Edition - Day 3
PostPosted: August 17th, 2012, 7:34 am 
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Recipients of Doctor protections are usually not told unless they are also attacked that night. Thusfar Scar's game is going by the book, so there's no reason to suspect any different.

If you guys notice, we are at LYLO (Lynch-Or-Lose), if there are indeed three mafia, which Kikori has been happy to assume. Seven players, if one more non-mafia dies, that puts the ratio at even, mafia win.

Kikori's level of commitment to his 'clearing' of himself, Godders, and Aragorn, strikes me as an attempt to push for the winning lynch on Penguin. There are two janitored bodies, under no circumstances can we be trusting a detective so lightly. Note that these three are the only three voting for Penguin, and that none of them were on the Kikori train.

It's too perfect. The nightkills perfectly frame Penguin, Kikori's on the verge of a lynch before being bailed out by Godders. Honestly it's safer to kill Kikori than Godders for obvious reasons, but if Kik turns up mafia it's fairly certain Godders is too.

My vote on Kikori stands.

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia XXIII - Mountain Village Edition - Day 3
PostPosted: August 17th, 2012, 7:44 am 
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Maybe Kikori is Mafia and is just trying to split the votes so there isnt a kill today, i knkw for a fact that Penguinguy is Mafia, but the timing of my information seems to have messed up really be because if i was the first person to post you all probably wouldve swayed towards voting for Penguinguy and seen that he is Mafia.

Summarise: I hope it is only 2 mafia and if so that if i am killed tonight well then please vote for Penguinguy so then we'd atleast have a chance of winning.

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia XXIII - Mountain Village Edition - Day 3
PostPosted: August 17th, 2012, 8:44 am 
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That's bullshit and you know it, Godders. Splitting the votes between who? PenguinGuy (Mafia), myself (Mafia but nearly bussed by two of them...?), and you (detective)? I'm on your side, so you're not helping your case.

Top, I'm shocked you'd follow that logic. This is almost a perfect mirror of what happened during Scrubbing Bubble's climax of claims. Remember how I was fake claiming doctor, knew it was bullshit, and wanted to take out the biggest threat who was possible to kill (Market Man6, who actually was a detective) so the actions in the night could have more meaning?
Mirror: Penguin is Mafia, is screwed, and wants to make sure the biggest threat of the day, Godders, dies. Otherwise a doctor that may or may not exist will spend the night protecting him, figure out who the next Mafia is, and the Mafia is screwed over. To the Mafia, the detective has to die ASAP and the confusion about Godders' timing and lack of immediate vote gave them a chance to do it.

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia XXIII - Mountain Village Edition - Day 3
PostPosted: August 17th, 2012, 9:12 am 
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Godders wrote:
If a Doctor protects someone at Night without someone attacking them would that person be notified? If so then i would believe Penguinguy to be aligned with Riptide, because ofcourse a Mafia partner would say that thy got protected by the Doctor.

No. That is not how a doctor works nor how it has ever worked. You're just making up roles to try and save yourself. Riptide is town, not mafia as you say he is. He was on the Kikori train that almost killed him, before you had to step in.
Godders wrote:
I beleive that the first person killed or lander was a Doctor and that Pengujnguy can use the info from the Janitor to claim Doctor without being unchallnged.

I beleive that Henry or Lander was a Detective, and that Godders can use the info from the Janitor to claim Detective without being challenged. You're using logic that incriminates you. So either you're lying, or a hypocrite. But I know you're lying, because I'm our doctor, not mafia. You are Mafia.

Topsummoner wrote:
My vote on Kikori stands.

Although I agree with you on Kikori being Mafia, you're splitting the votes. Godders already has two votes, and has the momentum.

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