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 Post subject: Re: Mafia: XX - Day One
PostPosted: June 1st, 2012, 10:11 pm 
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I'll admit, it's definitely an original and entertaining approach for day one.
Monk Basher wrote:
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Henry, as he's just shown, can't afford to have my posts be a joke. Only one alignment truly can't.

I'll let you guess which that is.

Hey, Monk. Correct me if I'm wrong. But Mafia try to joke around more often than villagers.

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia: XX - Day One
PostPosted: June 2nd, 2012, 8:49 am 
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Monk Basher wrote:
That's far too basic of a way to look at it. Relative amounts corresponding to alignments on an individual level is what I'm talking about. It's based on the same principles as my average post count per day theory, where, using the patterns each individual player has developed over the course of the games they've played, a given player will shenanigan either more or less according to the three categories of Town PR, vanilla, or scum PR. I don't expect it to be quite as reliable, but this would be usable first thing D2, where average post count doesn't really shake out until D4.


Monk Basher wrote:
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Henry, as he's just shown, can't afford to have my posts be a joke. Only one alignment truly can't.

I'll let you guess which that is.


I find this a pretty startling 180, Monk. I don't see how you can really blame Henry for seeing the first post as serious, because I don't see how it could be taken as a joke. Your subsequent vote for him reeks of OMGUS too.

Seems like you're hyding something to me. Monk, what about the first post quoted in this post was a joke?

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia: XX - Day One
PostPosted: June 2nd, 2012, 9:12 am 
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well that puts monk halfway to a lynch...
unvote

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia: XX - Day One
PostPosted: June 2nd, 2012, 10:08 am 
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Kikori wrote:
Correct me if I'm wrong. But Mafia try to joke around more often than villagers.


Wouldn't know. Never measured it because it's a dumb metric to use.

Top wrote:
Seems like you're hyding something to me. Monk, what about the first post quoted in this post was a joke?


The first sentence, mainly. Which, you'll notice, by extension makes the rest of it pretty jokey too. In fact, the only serious part of that was that average post count doesn't really shake out until D4. While technically usable beforehand, having less than three data points isn't as reliable.

As I've said, Henry, and other mafia, can't afford for me to be serious on something like that. He assumed, out of fear, that if I were to be measuring that, I'd have it usable by next game day. It takes about half an hour per person to get all the data I use all nice and refined. It would take at least that to do the same for something like this. Over here in Oregon, it's the week before finals. I've not the time to try to quantify all that data, not for a silly mafia game. Then there's the unsolvable problem of objectifying those posts. I mean really now, did you think I was going to develop some sort of shenanigan-o-meter and take the average and standard deviation and anyone whose average shenaniganning was outside of a standard deviation I was going to accuse of being mafia? I think I demonstrated last game that a have at least a rudimentary knowledge of when statistics are being misused. The subjectivity of any shenanigan-o-meter I could come up with makes it a misuse right there.

So yes, it *was* shenanigans.

Henry, however, took this as a credible threat, where Market, Kik, and Aragorn didn't. Combine that with his utter non-defense of my vote for him, and it's gonna stay there. I urge you to do the same.

Finally, FoS on Top. Seeing this as an OMGUS isn't like you. Neither is misspelling 'hiding' like that. Make your questionable breadcrumbs more subtle next time.


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 Post subject: Re: Mafia: XX - Day One
PostPosted: June 2nd, 2012, 11:02 am 
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Monk Basher wrote:
I, too, love D1 shenanigans. I'm in the process of seeing if there's any correlation between D1 shenanigans levels and alignment.

So please, continue to shenanigan.


Monk Basher wrote:
As I've said, Henry, and other mafia, can't afford for me to be serious on something like that. He assumed, out of fear, that if I were to be measuring that, I'd have it usable by next game day. It takes about half an hour per person to get all the data I use all nice and refined. It would take at least that to do the same for something like this. Over here in Oregon, it's the week before finals. I've not the time to try to quantify all that data, not for a silly mafia game. Then there's the unsolvable problem of objectifying those posts. I mean really now, did you think I was going to develop some sort of shenanigan-o-meter and take the average and standard deviation and anyone whose average shenaniganning was outside of a standard deviation I was going to accuse of being mafia? I think I demonstrated last game that a have at least a rudimentary knowledge of when statistics are being misused. The subjectivity of any shenanigan-o-meter I could come up with makes it a misuse right there.

Topsummoner wrote:
I find this a pretty startling 180, Monk.


And.

Monk Basher wrote:
So yes, it *was* shenanigans.

Henry, however, took this as a credible threat, where Market, Kik, and Aragorn didn't. Combine that with his utter non-defense of my vote for him, and it's gonna stay there. I urge you to do the same.

Finally, FoS on Top. Seeing this as an OMGUS isn't like you. Neither is misspelling 'hiding' like that. Make your questionable breadcrumbs more subtle next time.


So when someone goes into serious mode about a person joking about using a new metric to measure a relation between behavior and mafia, you urge people to vote for them. Check.

Well, I've found my day one lynch target. My vote for Monk stays, and I'm currently giving Market Man6 a very severe glare for so swiftly unvoting for him. Eight votes to lynch, bro; it's hard to accidentally joke-vote someone to their own death in this kind of game, especially when there's a reason for it now.

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia: XX - Day One
PostPosted: June 2nd, 2012, 1:33 pm 
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Kikori, I have never been in favour of D1 lynches.

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia: XX - Day One
PostPosted: June 2nd, 2012, 2:30 pm 
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Monk Basher wrote:
Henry, however, took this as a credible threat, where Market, Kik, and Aragorn didn't. Combine that with his utter non-defense of my vote for him, and it's gonna stay there. I urge you to do the same.


I'm seeing a rather big similarity in the attitudes of you and Henry in this situation. Namely, both of you are being far more adamant in your accusations than you have any right to be at this point.

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Finally, FoS on Top. Seeing this as an OMGUS isn't like you.


It's exactly like me, actually. Any meta-evidence to back that claim up?

Quote:
Neither is misspelling 'hiding' like that. Make your questionable breadcrumbs more subtle next time.


Y have no ydea what you're talkyng about.

Ultimately your post is more shenigansy than I gathered the first few times I read it, the 'serious mode' vocabulary was probably distracting me. I think you and Henry are being kind of ridiculous against eachother though. IGMEO both of you.

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Market Man6 wrote:
Kikori, I have never been in favour of D1 lynches.


This is entirely untrue. Just looking back at the last few games, in Bifurcate you participated in the lynch of Lander on Day One of Act Two, and in Roman Numerals you said on Day One 'with all this arguing, its the vote that kills'. You're using meta-evidence that doesn't exist as a defense, and this is pretty scummy. Market Man

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia: XX - Day One
PostPosted: June 2nd, 2012, 4:18 pm 
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This puts an interesting thought in my head.

Monk is being uncommonly adamant and has pulled two outright 180's within a single day. Almost rushing to his defence when it seems an attack is had against him is a Market man who unvotes, and lies to try to cover himself as to why.

Between the two Monk and Market, my gut still goes for Monk.

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia: XX - Day One
PostPosted: June 2nd, 2012, 5:27 pm 
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Topsummoner wrote:
Market Man6 wrote:
Kikori, I have never been in favour of D1 lynches.


This is entirely untrue. Just looking back at the last few games, in Bifurcate you participated in the lynch of Lander on Day One of Act Two, and in Roman Numerals you said on Day One 'with all this arguing, its the vote that kills'. You're using meta-evidence that doesn't exist as a defense, and this is pretty scummy. Market Man

To be fair, on Act Two, we had some sense as to what was going on. Usually on D1 we just screw around.

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I used to get you and J@n mixed up. Except your funnier. And nicer. Happy 21st bro!

Oh man Jan, you just got zinged by Riptide. How much does THAT suck?


Well, statistically speaking, slightly more than a giant suckusaur. A dire one.


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Lets see if I remember how to play...

EX REX IS MAFIA SCUM FOURTHVOTER UNVILLAGE BLAH BLAH BLAH SCUM BLAH WINE IN FRONT OF ME BLAH BLAH META GAME BLAH BLAH BLAH SMELLS OF ELDERBERRIES BLAH

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia: XX - Day One
PostPosted: June 2nd, 2012, 5:39 pm 
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Riptide wrote:
Topsummoner wrote:
Market Man6 wrote:
Kikori, I have never been in favour of D1 lynches.


This is entirely untrue. Just looking back at the last few games, in Bifurcate you participated in the lynch of Lander on Day One of Act Two, and in Roman Numerals you said on Day One 'with all this arguing, its the vote that kills'. You're using meta-evidence that doesn't exist as a defense, and this is pretty scummy. Market Man

To be fair, on Act Two, we had some sense as to what was going on. Usually on D1 we just screw around.


Yeah, I felt that one wasn't particularly strong, hence why I searched for another.

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia: XX - Day One
PostPosted: June 2nd, 2012, 6:04 pm 
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I don't really like how this is going.

People are linking me with Monk over nothing on my part. I made a semi-serious post and vote over what I saw as a load of nonsense. Then he did a 180 and voted for me claiming even MORE nonsense and somehow stating that it makes me mafia. I have not done a single thing differently to my previous games, all of which I have been pro-town, so frankly WHAT ARE YOU ON ABOUT?

Mainly going to concentrate on where Monk says I take his post as a credible threat to me... err no, I don't. Not even in the slightest. As far as I could see, it was Day One and you put a jokey OMGUS up vote. Didn't (and still doesn't) seem like anything valid to defend myself against.

Besides, Day One, one vote on me, there is no reason to defend myself. Apart from you making up a load of crap and flipping between joke and serious, you have nothing.

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia: XX - Day One
PostPosted: June 2nd, 2012, 6:07 pm 
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Henry, I didn't link you with Monk, I was saying you two were playing similarly, in that you were practically stating each other to be mafia. You're defending yourself from accusations never made, while claiming that you don't need to defend yourself. FOS

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia: XX - Day One
PostPosted: June 2nd, 2012, 6:11 pm 
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Topsummoner wrote:

Ultimately your post is more shenigansy than I gathered the first few times I read it, the 'serious mode' vocabulary was probably distracting me. I think you and Henry are being kind of ridiculous against eachother though. IGMEO both of you.


Could you please point out where I am being ridiculous against anyone? I made a post which I stick to - Monk's original post about analysing this stuff is, to me, a load of crap. His reply could be seen as being ridiculous... mine? In what was is that ridiculous?

If anything, I think he might be a lyncher (or a jester... but I don't want to talk about Jesters right now after spending the past 12 hours in a nightclub called jesters... second worst nightclub in Europe and it was horrible!)

@Top who replied whilst I was typing. Certainly seems like you linked me with him here. I didn't state he was mafia, my vote wasn't exactly based on solid evidence so wasn't the most serious vote either. I don't need to defend myself from Monk, I do need to defend myself from claims that I'm linked with him. I'm playing how I always play.

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia: XX - Day One
PostPosted: June 2nd, 2012, 6:14 pm 
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Dr Henry wrote:
Sounds like a load of crap to base poor trains on tomorrow in a hope to get a free lynch... Monk


That comment is what I was referring to, it was the first serious accusation anyone had made and it stuck out to me.

Noting that you two were scrapping (i.e. voting for eachother seriously) with each other in similar ways is not linking you. It's merely an observation of play-styles. You're jumping to conclusions that are going to make me want to link you though....

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia: XX - Day One
PostPosted: June 2nd, 2012, 6:16 pm 
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Topsummoner wrote:
Dr Henry wrote:
Sounds like a load of crap to base poor trains on tomorrow in a hope to get a free lynch... Monk


That comment is what I was referring to, it was the first serious accusation anyone had made and it stuck out to me.

Noting that you two were scrapping (i.e. voting for eachother seriously) with each other in similar ways is not linking you. It's merely an observation of play-styles. You're jumping to conclusions that are going to make me want to link you though....


As I said, wasn't really serious. I was grasping at straws at best.

I'll admit though, Monk's reaction since then has seemed quite scummy, hence my vote remaining.

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia: XX - Day One
PostPosted: June 2nd, 2012, 7:15 pm 
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Monk Basher wrote:
Wouldn't know. Never measured it because it's a dumb metric to use.


And measuring people's posts-per-day is smart and useful? As Doc said, there are many reasons why someone's number of posts might not line up. And there's no reason to highlight just how much time you spend calculating such figures either. If someone is playing way outside their normal activity level, then we know something's up. But at this point, everyone who plays has settled into their style and will either be active or inactive regardless of alignment. A few games ago, you tried to use this strategy against me and it was the first time I could recall hearing about it. And you yourself said, when I was mafia, that I wasn't playing (far) outside of my normal villager post count.

In short, I don't put much stock in your figures. And why you're making such a huge deal out of it is beyond me.

Quote:
I urge you to do the same.


I certainly don't like this.

I was willing to forgive your initial transgression, your 'flip flop' or whatever everyone is calling it, but now you're just acting way out of your norm. Monk Basher

See what I did there? heoheheoeheeheheehehehe

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia: XX - Day One
PostPosted: June 2nd, 2012, 7:45 pm 
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This is quite ridiculous.

Monk says what everyone (even himself) agrees is bullshenanigans. Dr. Henry called him out on it, and Monk delared him scum for that, and adamandtly defends that assertion.

I had dismissed it at the time as more jokes, it is hard to take any claim made in image macro form serious. But now it appears he truly meant it. His logic is that calling out BS makes you mafia, and spouting BS doesn't. That is bad logic. Monk Basher

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia: XX - Day One
PostPosted: June 3rd, 2012, 12:13 am 
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Dr Henry wrote:
I made a semi-serious post and vote over what I saw as a load of nonsense.


Jokevotes, aren't. I never take, or mean, them that way, and never have.

Lander wrote:
And measuring people's posts-per-day is smart and useful?


[youtube]-lfiTebewnc[/youtube]

Yes.

Yes it is. I'm rather surprised you have to be told this.

You see, I assume that you assume that people do what you do - settle into a routine that doesn't much deviate in that regard.

They don't.

And as touched on previously, with so many games under so many people's collective belts, the outliers caused by non-game-related inactivity get minimized both by the day and by the game. Sure, you may notice something "way outside" their activity level. I know I did. That's when I started keeping track of these things. Now I notice, and leverage, much slighter variations on post count.

In short,

[quote="Lander']But at this point, everyone who plays has settled into their style and will either be active or inactive regardless of alignment.[/quote]

Please keep promoting this. It helps to stabilize the patterns.

In other news, you may indeed be wondering why I'm acting out of my norm. Well,

I AM YOUR TRACKER. KILLING ME IS A BAD IDEA(TM).

Obviously didn't wanna claim but it looks like I must at this point.


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 Post subject: Re: Mafia: XX - Day One
PostPosted: June 3rd, 2012, 1:23 am 
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My good man, you borked your quote BBcode. You are obviously mafia and your claim is fake.

I'm gonna be honest, your claim doesn't set well 100% with me. A tracker is a far less productive Village role, one uncommonly implemented, and just the same one very easy to see not challenged by a genuine tracker. After all, without a genuine tracker, you can see how a fake claim would go without a problem. However, killing a village-aligned power role day one... Yeah, I'd rather avoid that.

The only saving grace in your argument is the fact that, if you are lying, you chose an investigative role. You won't live out the game without something useful coming of it, given the size of the game. We'll certainly find out your honesty in time. Unvote. I still don't like how you've 180'd yourself twice in a day, though.

... I should've known it was too easy, thinking Market had given himself and Monk up as mafia on day one.

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia: XX - Day One
PostPosted: June 3rd, 2012, 4:02 am 
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I can buy that for now.

For the record, out of town for most of today and tomorrow (realtime). May or may not have internet access.

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