At the very least, we should be able to deduce who is more likely to be scum via what we know from last game.

Market Man6 - Insomniac, Lynched Day 3
Scar - Mafia, Lynched Day 5
Aragorn Ix
Dr Henry - Medical Student, Slain Night 1
Topsummoner - Detective - Slain Night 4
Tahu 1000
Monk Basher - Mafia, Lynched Day 4
Riptide - Doctor, Slain Night 3
Landerpurex

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Market WON'T be the insomniac.
Scar and Monk aren't mafia.
Top WON'T be the detective.
Riptide WON'T be the Doctor.
Doc WON'T be the med student.
It seems that Aragorn, myself, and Tahu were vanilla townies last time around, and will not be vanilla again. This is key in that we either A. Have a role or B. are mafia.

If you take aaaall of this information, there's a 3/7 chance to hit a mafia. There is a 50% chance that myself, Aragorn, or Tahu are mafia. There are many more possibilities for everyone else, as they could be mafia, another role, OR vanilla townie. Not so many for us.

In keeping with tradition: Tahu

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Scar - Villager

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Straight odds are supplemental at best past D1. You're basing things off one (unlikely) scenario for D2. We're all screwing up numbers everywhere. You're acting differently where so far nobody else is... UNTIL:


Lander, there are two "normal villager" slots open now, most likely, with three mafia. Four special roles and three mafia slots means you former normals have the same 3/7 chance everyone else does. The fact that you missed that while not missing anything else is more suspicious than Henry right now.
unvote
vote Lander

You're assuming that there are three mafia. It's likely, but it's just as likely that there are roles involved as well. It could be both.

But that was an honest mistake on my part. As you said, I didn't miss anything else. There's a lot of information to be processed here, far be it for me to miss one detail. I already acknowledged that there are possibly three mafia in my earlier post. Nor did I ever say that there were three vanilla townie roles available this time. I never specified a number. You seem to be mistaken. When I said Tahu, myself, and aragorn were townies, that was last game. I was pointing out that none of us are (or should be) vanilla this game, assuming aragorn was vanilla. Tahu has admitted it, and I'll admit it now. I was vanilla last time around.

In short, I honestly don't see what you're getting at.

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Just to confirm I was a villager last game, haven't read all the way back yet but I assume there wasn't an end post confirming all prior roles?

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Monk, as Lander rightly stated, since I died night one of the last Act, I want to speak as much as possible today, see if I can perhaps work out who I think is mafia so if I get killed again, I've helped a bit at least.

However, my maths has gone all out the window - I actually didn't think of the point Lander made about the vanilla townies not being able to be vanilla townies again.

Obviously, it does mean that they are more likely to be a power role, so it is 50/50 that they are mafia or power role. The fact that Lander made the point, and immediately voted for one of the others in an attempt to get a train going, strikes me as suspicious.

Seems like a mafia trying to act 'helpful' to the village by telling us this, whilst also trying to rid of us a power-role, because he would obviously know who is mafia with him, and his logic would imply that Tahu is some kind of role.

Lander

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Alright, someone explain to me where this 50/50 stuff is coming from, nice and slow, because I'm just not getting it.

Second, Lander, since you advocate a mass claim, how about you follow suit. We know you're not vanilla, and we know the roles involved. A lie will be almost immediately exposed, and a doctor can protect you should you be truthful (and should you be mafia and fakeclaim doctor, we still have the backup of the med student so we lose but a safety net where you lose a mafia).

So yes, make your claim, if you please.

Great. One of you commends my logic and then votes for me on the grounds that I'm trying to look 'helpful', and the other puts words in my mouth and doesn't respond to the fact. And wants me to roleclaim.

Doc- It's one vote. On Tahu. He's at least marginally active. He'll have plenty of time to roleclaim if he's not scum, and given the nature of this game, others ought to know to be careful with their votes. I said a mislynch could be very bad, but if it happened, you could almost be guaranteed that the mafia are in on it. Like I said. They are more likely to have a role, but they are ALSO more likely to be scum. High risk, high reward.

Monk- Explain why you voted for me in the first place. You claim I made an oversight and said there were three vanilla townie roles available in this game when in truth I never said any such thing.

In terms of my logic, I'll spell it out for you: Aragorn, myself, and Tahu were all vanilla townies last time around. This means we CAN NOT be vanilla townies this time around. This means we either A: Are mafia or B: Have a power role. Do you understand?

In terms of a roleclaim: I asked you first. Also, it would be a bad idea at this point...my triple-post was more or less my final logic coming to fruition. I'd rather pursue Aragorn and/or Tahu right now than have a mass claim happen. Before I arrived at my conclusion, a mass claim made the most sense, but now, I don't think it's as necessary.

Mass claim should be a failsafe because if the mafia has a role, it's possible they could have a roleblocker. If the power roles claim, they get killed and blocked. This thesis would need a lot of things to be true, but it seems far from impossible.

In short: the mass claim wasn't the greatest idea I've ever had. It was the most valid course of action at the time before I considered other options. Hence why I asked if anyone was up for a mass claim, not jump right into it myself.

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There's been a lot of discussion already, but there's something I want to get out there right away.

1) No one had the same role as they did in Act I, and
2) The threat to the Village was greater than ever.

I'm a little worried about everyone jumping to confirm Scar and Monk so soon. The role they CANNOT be is 'Mafia', aka a basic mafia goon.

Act 1, the setup was clearly town-biased. The town was FLOODED with roles, and the Mafia had NOTHING. However, this time the 'threat to the village' is 'greater'. I believe this is implying the Mafia now have one or more power-roles.

Scar and Monk are LESS LIKELY to be mafia, but they are by no means confirmed.

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oh derr derr I just re-read the flavour text again.

"everyone knew they were telling the truth"

I am le stupid

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oooo a new day one

i will share that last round i was the insomniac. this meant i was allowed to leave my house during the night and camp outside another house. the first night i stood watch over tahus house. no one entered. no one exited. the second night, i watched monks house. monk left. then returned home.

also, now, monk and scar could very well be a 3rd party/mason group.

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So the 'Insomniac' is in fact a 'Watcher'.

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yeah.
but if i wasnt asleep during the final few votes against me... i still wouldnt have mentioned monk, because at that point i didnt know if he was the doctor, or mafia(if he was doctor he would be dead instantly). i needed to return to his house one more night to confirm.

before i vote, im waiting to hear more from aragorn, lander and tahu...

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Point out where I said you said that. You'll be looking for a long time. Let me rephrase it for you:

9 people:
4 town PR
3 mafia
2 normal

We know you cannot be normal; therefore, you are either town PR or mafia. This is a 3 in 7 chance. 3 in 7 is somewhat close to, but still definitely not, 50/50.



Perfectly. Now explain the 50/50 thing like I asked.




Uh huh. I find it a far simpler explanation that you've realized that a roleclaim puts you an in untenable position. Between this and attempting to reframe my argument, you're playing just like you always do as mafia. My vote's staying on you.

lander was saying: aragorn/lander/tahu can not be vanilla townies again. therefore they have 2 options left(power role, or mafia). each person can only be 1 of those two things. one out of two is equal to 50%

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Sorry about my inactivity. Got grounded. Again. So if I am correct with these shenanigans, Jaron basically just scrambled all the roles?

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Kikori wrote:

Topsummoner wrote:

Riptide wrote:

I used to get you and J@n mixed up. Except your funnier. And nicer. Happy 21st bro!

Oh man Jan, you just got zinged by Riptide. How much does THAT suck?

Well, statistically speaking, slightly more than a giant suckusaur. A dire one.

PenguinGuy wrote:

Lets see if I remember how to play...

EX REX IS MAFIA SCUM FOURTHVOTER UNVILLAGE BLAH BLAH BLAH SCUM BLAH WINE IN FRONT OF ME BLAH BLAH META GAME BLAH BLAH BLAH SMELLS OF ELDERBERRIES BLAH

Right?

Possibly, with also the possibility of adding a mafia member, or adding mafia power roles.

Also, I am off to London now so don't expect to see me for the rest of the day - I will pop on if I can. Should be here by the start of Day 2.

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This was what I was talking about. I appear to be mistaken, however. Your argument was/is still flawed, as we 'former normals' DO NOT have the same odds as everyone else. It's alarming to me that you are still struggling to get what I am saying when it's clear to everyone else.

Market hit the nail right on the head:



If we are either mafia or have a power role, what are the odds? 50% that we're scum, 50% that we're a power role.

Anyway, it's good of the inactives to come crawling in here.

I'm not claiming at this point in time. You can say what you want. No one else is claiming. Scar claimed because he's confirmed, and because he's a vanilla townie he has nothing to hide, and nothing to lose. Not so much for many of us.

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i was going to force something out of aragorn, simply because he is alphabetically first, and each of the three is as good a guess as the next.... but lander has more votes on him, and adding one more will get more results.

also, lander, this has nothing to do with my previous vote on you in phase I. that old vote was simply because at that time, you hadnt said anything for the longest period of time.

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Hahaha, more of the same, this time with implications of... well, any combination of a few things really, but hilarious ones nonetheless. I have already explained how this too is a mischaracterization at best.

You're now at 3/5 votes. I'll ask for your role one last time. I know I would, regardless of my alignment, be claiming something, anything right about now. As a town, it allows for a doctor to protect you since there won't be a counterclaim, and as a mafia, you get to find out the identity of a role for your cronies to try to kill.