Mafia 15 - A Party Game - Day 8

Dr Henry · **Posted:** August 14th, 2010, 6:33 pm

Top, I see Steely's points, and yours, but I still would rather put my vote towards chasing mafia, than voting off neutral/third party.
Has he told us his win conditions?

Monk, I'm disappointed that you've failed to provide any stats on the two "claimed townies" and crossed them off your list so easily... I've not yet targetted either of them, and just because your roleblock didn't seem to do anything, that doesn't mean that they haven't got any roles.

Do people no longer look at what a confirmed mafia has said as evidence on other mafia?

I still think Defeat is mafia... but will happily wait for a Bluecoat reply on his inactivity, but I've never been one to train on someone for being inactive... I want to find mafia, not inactives

Also, Monk's Bus Driver thing, I believe, came from confusion as to whether he had roleblocked me or not, but I assume it was just Paidea confusing me as I tried to follow a villager, Scar, who was killed (assumption that if I had left to follow him, I'd have seen the mafia).

PenguinGuy · **Posted:** August 14th, 2010, 6:50 pm

Monk Basher wrote:

Oh, so we want better stuff to go on, do we?

Stats time! Just remember, you lot asked for it.

1) TheAnimal
5) bluecoat
7) Dragoncrusher1, claims townie
9) Monk Basher, claims roleblocker
10) Topsummoner, claims townie
11) PenguinGuy
12) Tahu1000
14) dr henry, claims tracker
15) Steely Mallon
17) Defeat
18.)RipTide, claims lone ranger

11 people, meaning 2, possibly 3, mafia.

5 have claimed. With no challenges (and because[color=#BF80FF][/color] there's an essay breathing down my back), for now they must be presumed to tell the truth.

1) TheAnimal
5) bluecoat
11) PenguinGuy
12) Tahu1000
15) Steely Mallon
17) Defeat

All are active on RV.

Not all are active on the topic - and before you go all 'outside evidence' on me, I'm judging this based on the fact that they haven't been replaced. Secondly, traditionally past mafia games are allowed as evidence.

TheAnimal, villager last game, 7/4 = 1.75 posts/day
bluecoat, villager last game, 6/2 = 3
PenguinGuy, doctor last game, 16/7 = 2.29
Tahu1000, villager last game, 8/3 = 1.67
Steely Mallon, villager last active game, 17/5 = 3.4
Defeat, villager last game, 44/8 = 4.5

Now, this game's stats to this post:

TheAnimal, 10/4.5 = 2.22 posts/day, 26% more than usual
bluecoat, 5/4.5, no posts since D3 = 1.11 , 37% of usual
PenguinGuy, 4/4.5, no posts D3 = 0.89 , 39% of usual, but offset due to pro-town role. Still significantly low.
Tahu1000, 10/4.5 = 2.22 , 33% more than usual
Steely Mallon, 17/5 = 3.78 , 11% more than usual
Defeat, 14/4.5 = 3.11, 69% of usual.

It's my experience that mafia generally post significantly less than usual, while pro-town roles post significantly more than usual, with villagers hovering around their average. Ranked on those attributes, from most likely to least likely to be mafia:

bluecoat
PenguinGuy
Defeat
BZZZZZZZ
TheAnimal
Tahu1000

Yeah, so I changed my vote -- because of the most solid thing in this game. I urge you to change yours as well.

Three things,

Inactive =/= Mafia.
I was gone for a week, so my activity is lower than normal.
Last game I posted like half my posts during the last day shenanigans.

Steely Mallon · **Posted:** August 14th, 2010, 9:17 pm

Topsummoner wrote:

It shouldn't for the purposes of that list, but claiming you are a villager IS a roleclaim and generally has an effect on the game when you do claim that.

"For purposes of that list" is more or less what I meant. I know claiming vanilla townie can have an effect on the game, but it's not a counter-claimable role like drunk or tracker, or a testable one for that matter.

dr henry wrote:

Has he told us his win conditions?

He wins when everyone (Town included) is dead.

Spirographed · **Posted:** August 15th, 2010, 12:16 am

Oh, hello. I have a bit to read through, as my internet and phone have been shut off for a few days.

Found there is free wifi @ the library in my town, so....yeah. In the words of The Governator, "I'll be back"....well......I am back, rather.

Steely Mallon · **Posted:** August 15th, 2010, 9:36 pm

If you're back, cast a vote or opinion or something, don't just say you're back. :?:

My vote stays on Riptide for today.

Steely Mallon · **Posted:** August 15th, 2010, 9:58 pm

Riptide, Defeat, bluecoat, Tahu, and Penguin have not cast votes yet.

Dr Henry · **Posted:** August 16th, 2010, 6:08 am

Nor have some posted at all :/

Tahu 1000 · **Posted:** August 16th, 2010, 6:11 am

Interesting statistics. Does comparing the posting frequencies of those who have had their roles confirmed (read: are dead) with their posting frequencies last game support the idea that mafia post less? I know it's somewhat true for me, personally.

Steely Mallon · **Posted:** August 16th, 2010, 8:55 am

Who cares just do something productive.

Dr Henry · **Posted:** August 16th, 2010, 9:23 am

BZZZZZZZZZZZZ wrote:

Who cares just do something productive.

This.

Spirographed · **Posted:** August 16th, 2010, 9:44 am

Monk Basher wrote:

Oh, so we want better stuff to go on, do we?

Stats time! Just remember, you lot asked for it.

1) TheAnimal
5) bluecoat
7) Dragoncrusher1, claims townie
9) Monk Basher, claims roleblocker
10) Topsummoner, claims townie
11) PenguinGuy
12) Tahu1000
14) dr henry, claims tracker
15) Steely Mallon
17) Defeat
18.)RipTide, claims lone ranger

11 people, meaning 2, possibly 3, mafia.

5 have claimed. With no challenges (and because[color=#BF80FF][/color] there's an essay breathing down my back), for now they must be presumed to tell the truth.

1) TheAnimal
5) bluecoat
11) PenguinGuy
12) Tahu1000
15) Steely Mallon
17) Defeat

All are active on RV.

Not all are active on the topic - and before you go all 'outside evidence' on me, I'm judging this based on the fact that they haven't been replaced. Secondly, traditionally past mafia games are allowed as evidence.

TheAnimal, villager last game, 7/4 = 1.75 posts/day
bluecoat, villager last game, 6/2 = 3
PenguinGuy, doctor last game, 16/7 = 2.29
Tahu1000, villager last game, 8/3 = 1.67
Steely Mallon, villager last active game, 17/5 = 3.4
Defeat, villager last game, 44/8 = 4.5

Now, this game's stats to this post:

TheAnimal, 10/4.5 = 2.22 posts/day, 26% more than usual
bluecoat, 5/4.5, no posts since D3 = 1.11 , 37% of usual
PenguinGuy, 4/4.5, no posts D3 = 0.89 , 39% of usual, but offset due to pro-town role. Still significantly low.
Tahu1000, 10/4.5 = 2.22 , 33% more than usual
Steely Mallon, 17/5 = 3.78 , 11% more than usual
Defeat, 14/4.5 = 3.11, 69% of usual.

It's my experience that mafia generally post significantly less than usual, while pro-town roles post significantly more than usual, with villagers hovering around their average. Ranked on those attributes, from most likely to least likely to be mafia:

bluecoat
PenguinGuy
Defeat
BZZZZZZZ
TheAnimal
Tahu1000

Yeah, so I changed my vote -- because of the most solid thing in this game. I urge you to change yours as well.

I like your style. bluecoat.

FoS BZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ -too pushy man. I had computer problems, it's not my choice.

Topsummoner · **Posted:** August 16th, 2010, 1:57 pm

FOS Defeat.

Quick to jump onto bluecoat, and FOS Steely for a very flimsy and unbacked reason.

twinArmageddons · **Posted:** August 16th, 2010, 2:06 pm

Putting this out there now, while I am keeping my vote on riptide for now, I can safely conclude that one of these three are mafia:
bluecoat
defeat
penguinguy

Riptide · **Posted:** August 16th, 2010, 3:35 pm

Claiming detective? Also, I have my suspicions on some people, but I'll save them until they're confirmed.

Animal · **Posted:** August 16th, 2010, 3:48 pm

Riptide wrote:

Claiming detective? Also, I have my suspicions on some people, but I'll save them until they're confirmed.

If he were claiming detective he would've outright said who the mafia was.

twinArmageddons · **Posted:** August 16th, 2010, 3:52 pm

Riptide wrote:

Claiming detective?

No, that would be a bad idea. That, and I'm not the detective.

Tahu 1000 · **Posted:** August 16th, 2010, 4:19 pm

DragonCrusher1 wrote:

Riptide wrote:

Claiming detective?

No, that would be a bad idea. That, and I'm not the detective.

Do you have any reason outside of posts during the day which lead you to that conclusion?

Sighence · **Posted:** August 16th, 2010, 4:26 pm

Tahu 1000 wrote:

DragonCrusher1 wrote:

Riptide wrote:

Claiming detective?

No, that would be a bad idea. That, and I'm not the detective.

Do you have any reason outside of posts during the day which lead you to that conclusion?

I thought my rolefishing was blatant...

Also, DC, "one of these guys are mafia BUT I'm not gonna get on the train for one of them!"

Huh??

Something about this whole day stinks, and I can't figure out who yet.

Spirographed · **Posted:** August 16th, 2010, 7:37 pm

What say you Steely. I've posted. WHAT SAY YOU. lol.

twinArmageddons · **Posted:** August 16th, 2010, 8:39 pm

Defeat wrote:

What say you Steely. I've posted. WHAT SAY YOU. lol.

Where's your vote?

Monk Basher wrote:

Also, DC, "one of these guys are mafia BUT I'm not gonna get on the train for one of them!"

Huh??

I want to make more certain before I vote for whichever I deem most likely to be mafia. That, and I already know no good is going to come from RipTide if he is left living.

Tahu 1000 wrote:

Do you have any reason outside of posts during the day which lead you to that conclusion?

Lack of posts*. Outside of that it's just subtle differences in playstyle, overall inactivity, refusal to vote.

Mafia 15 - A Party Game - Day 8

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