May I ask how you're calculating these percentages?

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There are 10 types of people in the world, the ones that understand binary, and the ones that don't.

Thanks Lou for the help with the avatar.

Sayaka, the onus is on you to backup your claims, deliberately withholding your evidence is more than a little suspicious. Unless you give more reasoning I'm voting for you.

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Hidden: 

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

There's no strict calculation. I apply different weights to a host of factors and tally it up in my head. If you've seen me in Chat (or in life itself) I do it endlessly. What it really means in the end is I think there's a roughly one-in-five chance I'm wrong about you.Nope. I already said that I'm not going to give those three the knowledge of what's making them look scummy to me, and I'm not changing my mind on that. Vote away.

(On an unrelated note, props to you for using "onus" in a sentence; I don't think I've ever seen that done successfully.)

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.Legendary themed months are back! Maybe.

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Sayaka, why do you need doctor protection?
If you are village, thanks for the info. And you should hope the mafia kills you rather than the doctor/detective.

As of right now, I'm not going to use what you said to alter my vote.

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I can't even take the level of metagame Jaron is channeling with his strategy. Paidea, help me out here.

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All we can really take from this is that he is not the Doctor.

Could be a Villager.

Could be Mafia, not trying to protect oneself, but trying to get the Doctor to protect him, so other Mafia players can kill off you (i say you because you're bassically a confirmed villager which wont help Mafia later on in the game) or a Veteran player.

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There are 10 types of people in the world, the ones that understand binary, and the ones that don't.

Thanks Lou for the help with the avatar.

So we are to simply hold blind faith in you that these three are scum? If you won't tell us your reason, hopefully you can give us the reason for this lack of reasons.

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I think I was already pretty clear in my original post. If I'm right about any two of those three, the Mafia won't want me alive to continue to figure them out. But as Godders added, if I'm wrong about those three, and they're Villagers, the Mafia will want to kill me to make it look like I was "on their trail" so that those three get lynched during Day phases. In a nutshell, after I made that post, I can't think of a reason why the Mafia wouldn't want me dead.

As to your second line, I agree entirely. I'd rather die than lose either the Doctor or the Detective as both are major Village roles. But I assume the Doctor can't self-protect, and the Detective has not publicly claimed yet, which means our Doctor will typically go with who is most likely to die. I simply suggest that I fall under that category now.Are...are you serious? Are you even reading my posts?

1) No, you're not simply to hold blind faith. I want you to take what I said into account and think about it yourself, re-reading the topic and finding scumtells. If you disagree, don't vote for them--Market Man is a perfect example of this already and I don't fault him for it. I admit I can't give you evidence and really that kinda sucks! But you guys are better than Mafia than I am so I kinda figured some of you would come to the same conclusion.

2) The reasoning for the lack of reasoning was stated twice now. Kikori, for instance, is a "pro" player. In my opinion he messed up really bad on two different things. Don't you think Kikori would take that into account next time and avoid doing those things again? Of course he would. That's why I don't want him to know what they are, because once he does, I won't have anything to go on anymore.

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.Legendary themed months are back! Maybe.

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Although in saying that the Mafia would then want to do the opposite and keep you alive.

Although i think this is all irrelevant, i believe with the amount of votes you have on you now, and the trouble you are causing for better or worse, the mafia will keep you alive unless they believe you to be a power role.

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There are 10 types of people in the world, the ones that understand binary, and the ones that don't.

Thanks Lou for the help with the avatar.

I can't discount that possibility, but in my experience the better Mafia teams will usually know I know that and kill me anyway as a double fake-out. (But if I assume you're Mafia, then you bringing it up makes the entire conversation moot because neither side would be able to guess the other, lol.) Anyway, that's why I only offered myself as a choice as long as the Doctor doesn't have a better plan, and as long as the Detective stays quiet. If either of those were to change I would expect to die quickly.

I don't know if I actually agree with your second line--although it might have some truth to it, that's not how I would usually play if I were Mafia. (But it IS what I'd expect and have seen from games where Dr Henry is Mafia.)

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.Legendary themed months are back! Maybe.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'm not putting blind faith into an unjustified assertion, Sayaka.

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Hidden: 

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I'm not sure what is going on with you, but it's some surefire bullshit. Sayaka.

Also telling us wouldn't hurt. Eventually someone would slip up in a future game. Or hell, for all we know, you could just be making this up.

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Hidden: 

Kikori wrote:

Topsummoner wrote:

Riptide wrote:

I used to get you and J@n mixed up. Except your funnier. And nicer. Happy 21st bro!

Oh man Jan, you just got zinged by Riptide. How much does THAT suck?

Well, statistically speaking, slightly more than a giant suckusaur. A dire one.

PenguinGuy wrote:

Lets see if I remember how to play...

EX REX IS MAFIA SCUM FOURTHVOTER UNVILLAGE BLAH BLAH BLAH SCUM BLAH WINE IN FRONT OF ME BLAH BLAH META GAME BLAH BLAH BLAH SMELLS OF ELDERBERRIES BLAH

Right?

Yes I have, and yes, I am serious.


I suppose you're expecting us, now that you've made your position clear, to go and find our own reasons for Kikori, Henry, and Godder's guilt. And after that, once we've come up with an exhaustive list of all the reasons these three should be hanged, we are to ask whether we are correct in these accusations, if they are the same as your hidden ones, and you will hopefully then answer. Why you have chosen this path is beyond me. Maybe you are trying to make us think for ourselves, instead of having the answers handed to us. Maybe you believe this approach will lead to more discussion, and thus more information. Maybe you have no reasons, and you're hoping we will provide some for you. Though strange, two of the three might end for the better, though all are gambits, should be avoided by towns people, and invoke Lynch all Liars, for strictly meta-game purposes.


You only gave the reason for Kikori, though I assume it is the same for the other two. I'm not sure this is the most sportsman-like approach, as you are not only making this more difficult for us, you're trying to perpetuate an advantage over these three. Now we all have to guess at what you are alluding to. Are you referring to the semi-serious stance Kikori took late D1 on Godders to generate activity? Are you referring to Godders ignoring what he perceived as joke votes? Are you referring to Henry trying to change the subject and place blame on Paidea?

None of this sits well with me, and I'm sure it doesn't sit better with anyone else.

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Unvote.

As much as it pains me to cop out like this, the lynch is getting dangerously close to fruition while some important voices have gone unheard.

Sayaka's strategy makes no sense to me, but at the same time I'm not quite ready to believe he'd make this level of commitment to it as a mafia member. Pretty much all of the focus of the game is on him now. This does not speak 'going under the radar' to me.

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Where the percentages are concerned, I'm going to take a wild guess he's treating them the same way I treat my gut feelings. There's no rhyme, reason, or actual formula. There's just the strength of it there, and it's up to words to explain it.

That said. ... What? Let me take a few guesses what I might have done.

Day one. Lack of normally large post count, or joining a faulted train.
Day two. Explaining said day one train joining, or attempting to guess Mafia logic. I doubt you'd be OMGUS'ing this, and I equally doubt my position in the train against you matters as much as the logic against you, which (given it's the basis for my vote) I don't see as faulty.

Those are pretty much the only things I can literally guess would be "critical errors", which I think more people than just the person making them don't see as critical.



I'm flattered. <3

Topsummoner, this screams one of two things to me.
One is the best case scenario, he's pulling what some people would think I would do and taking the game into his own hands. He has his idea, he's putting himself in as much a position as he can to do damage to who he thinks is Mafia, and he's sticking to it no matter how the votes stack. If so, kudos to him for breaking out like that, no matter how wrong he is.
Alternatively, he's doing what Paidea has done twice. He's taking the game into the Mafia's hands, with an idea to cast such suspicion onto some particularly notorious names (given my abrasiveness, Henry's unexpected expertise, and Godders' habit of self incrimination, it's a good and solid mix), and potentially sacrificing himself for one of the largest WIFOM setups for the Mafia to run with until survival is an option. Bonus points to the idea if it includes trying to incriminate who the Mafia would believe to be a power role, as it almost completely ensures they will be under fire.

If it helps solidify which option I think he would be closer to acting out, my vote stands.

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Good; I'm glad, actually.
Pfft dude no. I don't want you to go on a witch hunt, I just thought you should take a closer look at those three because you guys all seem to write off a lot of stuff that I feel shouldn't be ignored. Also I don't know how many times I have to say it (I guess several more?) but I will not be explaining my reasoning, even if you guess it.
I don't ever try to "make" discussion or information. That happens on its own and having it forced out of you usually taints it, in my opinion.
Maybe I'm sitting here going "my god did Kikori seriously post that why is no one saying anything about it" and decided that if no one's going to notice than I don't want to make it known.
(I'm not sure what "reason" you mean, sorry. But I think all of them acted scummy in different ways and that's the reason for the varying percentages of my feelings on them.)
If I were you I wouldn't bother guessing because I'll never confirm or deny a thing. I'm not intending that to sound "all-high-and-mighty", it's strictly because the things they did are easily fixable and I don't want them easily fixed.
My. Point. Exactly.
Haha this is so great! (Not in a sarcastic way but rather that I like your post. It's very well written!)
1) I don't know if you know me but I'd sooner quit than 'take the game into my own hands'. That doesn't interest me at all, nor will it ever. I was pretty sure you knew that? Also, we'll see how wrong I am when this game ends.
2) I know WIFOM means "Wine in Front of Me" but I don't know what that means, haha. I really don't understand how doing this would make any sense if I were Mafia, either, because chances are looking good I'll be lynched, and then you'd know I was Mafia, and the whole thing would've been fruitless for no reason? (Wow in hindsight if Paidea pulled that off that's actually kinda neat.)
My intention has never been to make any sense, nor was it to stay under the radar. My intention was to throw my opinions out there like everyone does, and if you agree, that's cool I can totally add a +1 to your train because you know where I stand and I'm on board as well.

I didn't expect people to get so worked up about me not giving explanations though, haha! Aragorn's and Riptide's recent votes don't give me the impression that they think I'm Mafia, but rather that they don't like what I'm doing. To each his own I guess! But because of that, and since there's more than 40 hours left in Day 2 and I won't be around most of tomorrow because I work, I'm pretty sure I'm probably dead tomorrow after all. So I'm going to put the rest of my feelings on the table:

I'm 100% certain Market Man6 is a Villager.
I'm 100% certain Sayaka is a Villager (duh?).
I'm 91% certain Aragorn Ix is a Villager.
I'm 88% certain Topsummoner is a Villager.
I'm 82% certain PenguinGuy is a Villager.

(Aragorn or Penguin if either of you take that as me trying to buddy up to you and get you to unvote then you misread the point of my entire post yet again and I will stab you in the face.) That means in my eyes, one of the following is also Mafia, although I currently have absolutely no idea which one:

Landerpurex
Paidea
Riptide
Jackstick
Ex Rex (haha I forgot he was playing!)

Holy COW this post is WAY too freaking long.

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.Legendary themed months are back! Maybe.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sorry for inactivity etc etc I have a day job etc etc

That said, I could follow what Jaron was saying for a skinny minute. I suppose I have done the same thing, to a certain degree before. It also alarms me that Kikori thinks it's nonsense because *I KNOW* he has done the same thing in the past. That is, withholding scumtells so the perpetrator continues to make mistakes.

But here's your blunder Jaron (or perhaps your genius): among the ones you listed, the three, the mafia member's playstyle will change *the most* based on what you've said, as he will try to fix the perceived mistake. Or, if he is a veteran, in the case of Kikori, he will continue to play as normal and basically ignore you. Epic WIFOM, as most things in the game boil down to.

The villagers among the list don't (or shouldn't) care that they're being fingered as scum, as they know they are innocent and will continue on their business as usual. Your mistake is letting them know that you're onto them at all. What purpose does this ultimately serve, explicitly? Those of us in the past who said "I have a role but won't tell what, just trust me" were lying scum more often than not. Either you remain totally mum to wait and gather more damning information, of you come forward with what you have. There is no in between.

Mafia is a game of persuasion. I will continue to repeat my mantra: it's not what you believe that's important, it's what you can get others to believe. And, as a self declared member of the village, why would you withhold pertinent information if you ultimately want to see the death of the mafia?

Moreover, your claim of withholding info for the sake of future games is nonsense as well. You can point out explicitly what these scumtells are, and I can promise you that the people will go on to make them in the future regardless of what you say. People settle into their styles whether they're villagers or scum, and as scum, they will continue making mistakes because they have to lie. Keeping these things to yourself isn't that important, when the proverbial issue at hand is.



The above quoted is just bullcrap in a chef salad. If you've ever followed a mafia game, you know that once all of the 'active' players die off, inactivity kills the game. Even early on, if no one posts, the mafia wins. Someone has to 'create' information. What's more is you're contradicting yourself. You say the above, yet you finger Godders, Kikori, and Doc as scum knowing full well the consequence of your actions.

The person who contradicts himself most is usually mafia. Sayaka

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Kikori for trying to directly persuade me. It just smells of trying to solidify a lynch on its last legs.

I've left this train for a good reason: it does NOT make any sense for Jaron to make the move he has as a mafia member. Say Jaron flips mafia. He said that he is nigh-certain that you, Dr Henry, and Godders are mafia, whatever the reasons he may have are. This tells us absolutely no new information on the three of you. The WIFOM cancels itself out. We could go back and forth forever saying HE WAS TRYING TO CLEAR HIS FRIENDS, or HE WAS TRYING TO INCRIMINATE HIS ENEMIES. It's a waste of time and no good player would focus on that. What Jaron's death would yield would be entirely dependent on how everyone else REACTED to his strategy. Who voted for him, who argued with him, who DIDN'T vote for him.

Jaron's play has generated pretty much the only useful information we have thusfar in the game, for better or for worse. He has completely singled himself out by sticking to his "don't give reasons" strategy. There is no reason he should have done this as Mafia. It would put the Mafia down a man early, and it would generate a wealth of information for the town based on players reactions.

SO, since your reasons for him being mafia don't really make sense, why the direct persuasion? With a lynch so close, the mafia could pile on easily to finish Jaron off, with good justification. So this suggests to me either all the mafia are already on the train, or the remaining ones are inactive. Which is why you need to appeal to me.

One last thing:



In reflection, this post sticks out like a sore thumb. Kikori intercepts a question by Riptide aimed at Sayaka, and uses it as a vehicle to 'justify' his Day One behavior, which at this point no-one had brought attention to.



After getting the justification out of the way, Kikori then flip-flops against Sayaka for a train he was the third voter on, and never abandoned even when it got to 5/7 (from my memory). Something's not right here, and it's you.

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Niiiiiice. My "Lander is a Villager" count is at 64% for that post.

That's bull dude. You can't edit posts so the mistake is still there. And I'm not saying what it is, so he won't be fixing it. I don't care how he plays out the rest of the game.

I agree 100%. That's why I have never used "FOS" because I think it is pretty dumb.

I didn't feel like remaining mum, haha! In the end it comes down to I want to see where this goes.

That's a really good point actually, and a point I recall making myself in previous games. I don't have an answer for you. Sorry!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=McAeQiLmEYU

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=McAeQiLmEYU
(Partially. In truth they will continue making different mistakes, ones that might be much harder to catch.)

1) I totally disagree with your intent here, and I think you're missing a key point that I accidentally left out. When I said "make discussion or information", I was talking about when someone like Kikori completely reams someone for two thread pages nonstop under the guise of trying to get them to talk. I hate that playstyle with a passion, and there are a couple people here who can confirm that because I've said so many times before. When you take that into account, I don't think I'm contradicting myself at all. (I do agree with the inactivity late in the game but I think that's completely irrelevant to what we're talking about here, dude. It's day 2.)
2) Isn't it obvious? I haven't been considering the consequences of my actions this entire game.

Anyway I am going to bed so in the case you guys lynch me, this has been a ton of fun. Cheers!

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.Legendary themed months are back! Maybe.

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Boy, a lot of Mafia happened during DOTA. Was just Jaron's post when I started writing a response and starting to play at the same time.

In response to Sayaka.
1.) It's been a long time since we've actually played a proper, active game together that featured a lot of new steps for the sake of progressing thought. Seriously, I think the last time we personally had interaction that was any bit of a clash was back in Legend's, maybe my sixth or seventh game. So no, I honestly think it's in your capacity to take control of the game. YOU KIND OF DID.
2.) Wine In Front Of Me is made famous by "The Princess Bride", in which poison is supposedly poured into one of two goblets and the villian can only learn which one by asking questions. A battle of wits made EXTREMELY complex ("You're strong, so you would hope to withstand the poison, so I can not trust the wine in front of you, but you'd expect me to think that, so I clearly can not trust the wine in front of me"... times maybe six) when the actual result is something as simple as both goblets being poisoned. In Mafia terms, it means making an incredibly elaborate or redundant argument that either turns heads away from the truth, or simply confuses people and eats up time. If you're Mafia, it makes sense because everyone you associate with comes under fire. Voted for someone? Odds are it was to make us question why. Someone protected you? They may be Mafia, too! You've seen the effects of this firsthand. It's not something easily shrugged off. The activity, confusion, and potential for misdirection that can come from anyone's death (especially a Mafia's) are powerful things.
You've seen this happen before.

Dear Lander. Find "nonsense" in my post.
Not the point, I know. But there are still two perspectives to guessing why someone would withhold information. Make the suspicious continue their behavior, and cause confusion. Fun fact: I've done both. I tried withholding information and trusting people to look for it just because I made a point that "He's suspicious and I don't want him acting different once I pointed it out". Legend's game. Failed miserably. It's not a lack of belief in the usefulness of the trick, just not my cup of tea and one I will almost always lean closer to "scum" than I will to "villager".



If you want to vote for me, vote for me. But don't pretend voicing an idea that was going to come out regardless has anything to do with answering a question that you conveniently asked to lead me into it.

As for your two last things.
"Kikori" sees his name and responds. This is... new? And it's kind of stupid to take an unnoticed vehicle and start honking its damn horn for everyone to see if MY goal is not drawing attention.
And let's give you a bit more fodder for bolding my name. "Coincidence". Sayaka had a train started. I wanted to use it to try to get something going regardless of its target (as long as it wasn't me). No luck, and Sayaka's behavior after became genuinely suspicious to me. Yeah, I'll "flip-flop" if it means following a true suspicion against someone.

(While we're on the topic, though, you totally should vote for Sayaka.)

To Sayaka, again.
Where quote and response one are concerned, it's not about editing previous posts. It's about adjusting behavior in the future to avoid whatever scumtell only you can see.
Here's the rub, though. ONLY YOU CAN SEE IT. Anyone you peg as Mafia doesn't have to change anything about themselves if you are the only person who thinks the behavior is suspicious. You could have the entire Mafia figured out by behavior, but this kind of approach will not be a game-changer. Especially when your suspicions were founded over Day one (a day of jokes) and the very earliest hours of Day two.

Where the last quote and response are concerned, once again, I see my name and respond. I've kind of started to recognize how annoying it is to make two pages of confusing logic just to try to make someone go in circles until they get tired. So to both our reliefs, that's slowing to the best of my abilities to notice it happening. But I'm with Lander on the fact that you can not do any active attacking or suspicion casting without still making people think over what they've done or said, where they stand in the game, and how they have to proceed to make anything work in their favor. Whether you use my previous bum's rush, your attempt to force reflection and active search for scum-tells, or someone using short amounts of startling accuracy to behavior, it all boils down to the same thing. Someone lying will have to avoid tripping on the web they've spun, and when under suspicion, this will result in a lot of posts to do so.
(No post is too long as long as it's well written. <3)

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