Pirates, Mafia at Sea: THE MUTINY HAS BEEN SUCCESSFUL!

Riptide · **Posted:** July 30th, 2012, 4:56 am

Well spectacular.

Sig

Market Man6 · **Posted:** July 30th, 2012, 7:13 am

Arrr.
Me ship be lost to me forever.

Topsummoner · **Posted:** July 30th, 2012, 7:29 am

Monk

Mutiny!

Kikori · **Posted:** July 30th, 2012, 9:33 am

This is a little unsettling. Considering we're three for three on special roles with dead villagers, four being me as a drunk (more on that later), I don't like the chance we're taking now.
Educated guess: We have three mutineers.
Educated guess: We're at a situation of "If we lynch wrong, we lose", barring a doctor-type protection.
Gut feeling guess: There are more mutineers currently involved in Monk's current train than in Monk himself.

Why does my gut lie here? Well, first, let's elaborate on my drunk role. I'm not a roleblocker, per se. Gasp. For whatever stupid reason, Henry twisted the role around to make it an unconventional one for the sake of making the variant more variant'y. Day one, I must do nothing but vote and spew nonsense. If I am visited by anyone night one, they get angrily knocked out by my drunken hand. From Day two onward, I was allowed to speak normally. Except coming out with that thought would pretty much be screaming "Hey, I'm a Mafia, and that was my cover." Even now it does, but at this point, there's no point holding back the info.

So two things spawn from that. If Monk was roleblocked, it was done by someone else here. Most likely someone who threw him in the brig (jailkeeper / mafia roleblocker). We have no way of knowing if that was a pro-pirate or pro-mutineer roleblock, so don't bother letting a claim of it secure anyone as pirate or mutineer.

So who do I suspect?
Shockingly, not Aragorn. His playstyle is slow as usual but doesn't scream anything Mafia.
Shockingly, not Landerpurex yet. He's been less than productive and normally that sets my gut off on him, but this is an inactive variant. I don't blame him for lack of interest.
I do suspect, however, Riptide, Topsummoner, and PenguinGuy.
Penguin took the chance to start what was a legit attack on Aragorn and made it an attack on Monk.
Riptide, in his nervousness not to attract attention to himself and likely his trust that the lynch would have been passed, didn't vote.
Topsummoner, and this one is hardest to prove because he's a very logical player all around, jumped in at a good time to pound the near lynch pressure onto Monk.

Of the three, my heaviest suspicions lie on Riptide.

By the way, don't bother spending my work shift trying to call me a liar about my role and alignment. If I was Mafia, based on my educated guesses I could vote for Monk right now and put an end to this debacle. Changing it up to try to bus an ally would just be allowing the pro-pirate roles a great chance to undo the near secure win we have right now. I'm not a good bad guy, but even I can't attract that kind of attention to myself.

Topsummoner · **Posted:** July 30th, 2012, 11:51 am

[quote="Kikori"We're at a situation of "If we lynch wrong, we lose", barring a doctor-type protection.[/quote]

The term you're looking for is MYLO, (Mis-lynch and lose). Typically there's ~2 mafia in a 9 player game, but this game is 10 players, which is an unusual size. You certainly could be right about 3 mutineers, in which case we would indeed be at MYLO.

Thus far, nothing has really been 'variant' about this game except for unusual roles. Which is strange but entirely possible. Henry's 'don't assume anything' made me think there would be more, but thusfar nothing is really apparent to me.

Kikori, in your 'who I do and don't suspect', you notably excluded Monk. Your post implies you don't think he's a mutineer, but about the only reasoning you've given is 'gut'. Have anything better than that?

Aragorn Ix · **Posted:** July 30th, 2012, 12:11 pm

My suspicions of Monk haven't changed, so I'm going to follow up with a vote for him. I'm not putting the hammer down so if there's another viable alternative I'm willing to hear it.

Sighence · **Posted:** July 30th, 2012, 12:51 pm

A most satisfying post, Kikori. I was about to vote for you for roleblocking me (more on that later), get called crazy some more, and lynched.

See, I got more detail than "you were roleblocked". I couldn't have been sure before but with that explanation, you can't have been the roleblocker. I'll let last night's victim explain that further. (Victim, do this, it will essentially clear you and me both)

Now as for my new target, it's Riptide. Welcome to my train. Oh, wait, it left the station yesterday, when you were posting but not voting to try to look town when I flipped, sir.

Aragorn had a perfectly clean reason to hammer me - or even vote me long before - yesterday and didn't take it. Only a townie would have any reason in the slightest to do so.

To my mind, that makes 3-4 townies: myself (shut up I know I'm a villager and you will too with the other roleblocked person) Kik, Aragorn, and Mystery Roleblocked Man.

As for my suspects, it's Riptide, Penguin, and Topsummoner.

Penguin believes that my argument is an exact duplication of my last game's argument. His semantics over Scar saying that Aragorn is always attacked for inconsistency fails to see the obvious: it's because Aragorn is inconsistent. My last game was a fake use of this now-real inconsistency, born by being utterly inept at the mafia side of this game. tl;dr: My argument was actually true this time, just misdirected and differently motivated.

Topsummoner voted for me for "using being roleblocked to try to look town" and "giving up". The latter was caused by sickness. Call it a lame excuse, whatever, I don't care, that's what happened. The former, as we all now know, seems to be pretty damn lame, as this isn't all that varianty, and even if not, as I'm sure the next victim can confirm, is pretty damningly mafia-side blockage. Top then calls all that speculation irrelevant, but then proceeds to vote for me for thinking that it is. Nope, let's not focus on the roleblocker. Nope, don't want that. Can't have a suspected mafia special role running about here. Gotta lynch that kind of thinking. I've no proof, but my guess is Top's our blocker.

Sighence · **Posted:** July 30th, 2012, 12:52 pm

Whee more doubleposting.

That means someone should unvote me until the roleblocked person comes forward. It really is quite vital.

PenguinGuy · **Posted:** July 30th, 2012, 1:10 pm

Well this is an interesting turn of events. I beleive we should let Monk speak before we lynch him so fast. Our suspicion was his steadfast attacks on Aragorn, but if we were to lynch him this fast we would be guilty of the same.

In addition, Market's death does not sit well with me. He had the chance to hammer Monk but chose not to. If Monk was Mafia then Market is the kinda of villager they would want to keep alive. So to ech Kikori, this train likely has some if not all of the mafia, though I have to disagree on the specifics. Landerpurex's uncharacteristic bandwagoning sticks out to me, and obviously I don't think I am scum (I took a chance to attack someone you beleive town and attacked another person you beleive to be town. Not sure how that's scummy).

Anyway, I would like to hear from Monk before anything else.

Ninja edit: Well that was quicker than I thought, negative time even!

Sighence wrote:

Penguin believes that my argument is an exact duplication of my last game's argument. His semantics over Scar saying that Aragorn is always attacked for inconsistency fails to see the obvious: it's because Aragorn is inconsistent. My last game was a fake use of this now-real inconsistency, born by being utterly inept at the mafia side of this game. tl;dr: My argument was actually true this time, just misdirected and differently motivated.

I still don't like that argument, as you're saying that since Aragorn is being inconsistent since his last game, he is Mafia. My problem with that argument is that last game he was town, but died N1, giving too little time to gather sufficient information. And if you say he's inconsistent from two games ago, he was mafia that game, so that makes him town this game. I guess your argument rest on weither D1 is enough time to gather enough information on consistiency. That would justify your D1 use of the argument, but not the D2 use.

However, I beleive should should wait for the other roleblocked to come forth, it could justify your claim. However, how do you know it wasn't Market, in which case no one will come forth?

Riptide · **Posted:** July 30th, 2012, 2:00 pm

Sighence wrote:

Now as for my new target, it's vote. Welcome to my train. Oh, wait, it left the station yesterday, when you were posting but not voting to try to look town when I flipped, sir.

Spectacular. Well done, except that I am town. Sort of. Based on the black bold text in my PM I believe I am a third party role. A very restrained one, at that. I am the Lookout. On odd nights only, I can view any player's movement. Not their role, but if they move from wherever the hell we're sleeping. I was just hesitant to vote because people who hammer usually have FoS later on in the game. It's something of my playstyle to not get hot-headed at all. I usually keep low. As for my hesitance, it's gone now. My vote on you stands.

PenguinGuy · **Posted:** July 30th, 2012, 2:16 pm

Riptide, for your alignment, Pirates are town, Mutineers are Mafia. As for your role, who did you watch N1?

Landerpurex · **Posted:** July 30th, 2012, 2:17 pm

Kikori wrote:

Shockingly, not Landerpurex yet. He's been less than productive and normally that sets my gut off on him, but this is an inactive variant. I don't blame him for lack of interest.

You don't know me.

PenguinGuy wrote:

Landerpurex's uncharacteristic bandwagoning sticks out to me

Yeah, I guess that would stand out to you seeing as I haven't bandwagoned at all this game. For good or ill, I started the Monk train the past two days. Keep it up and earn my vote.

Interesting how everyone is saying "olol let's wait for the imaginary roleblocked person to claim they've been roleblocked". The only person who hasn't checked in since the start of D3 is Scar. Odds are that if someone was roleblocked, it'd be one of us who have already posted, and seeing as how that's pertinent information at this point, someone would have claimed in their opening post.

Another tick against Penguin is that he suggests that Market may have been the one who was roleblocked. Now, the mafia kills haven't made a lot of sense thus far, but I doubt they would kill their roleblock target. Unless they suspected a paranoid gun owner role or something. In short, I don't believe this to be the case. Rationalizing the fake roleblocker for your fellow mafioso?

The only reason I'm not voting for Penguin right now is because Monk's argument makes about as much sense as it did yesterday. Now, he's gone into more detail about it, but it still amounts to "my argument was nonsense last game but now it's true!" and to stall his lynch, he wants us to wait for something that potentially might not happen. He's assumed Aragorn innocent, when there could be a number of reasons he didn't hammer 'yesterday'.

PenguinGuy · **Posted:** July 30th, 2012, 2:30 pm

Landerpurex wrote:

PenguinGuy wrote:

Landerpurex's uncharacteristic bandwagoning sticks out to me

Yeah, I guess that would stand out to you seeing as I haven't bandwagoned at all this game. For good or ill, I started the Monk train the past two days. Keep it up and earn my vote.

Landerpurex wrote:

Sighence

Landerpurex wrote:

Sighence

Time to stir up this steamy pot of nonsense.

Sorry, bandwagoning was the wrong word. Voting without reason is what you did. My mistake.

Landerpurex wrote:

Another tick against Penguin is that he suggests that Market may have been the one who was roleblocked. Now, the mafia kills haven't made a lot of sense thus far, but I doubt they would kill their roleblock target. Unless they suspected a paranoid gun owner role or something. In short, I don't believe this to be the case. Rationalizing the fake roleblocker for your fellow mafioso?

We don't know if the roleblocker is mafia or scum. The only evidence for a roleblocker is Monk's claim, and he's said he doesn't know if its mafia or town roleblocker.

Landerpurex · **Posted:** July 30th, 2012, 2:38 pm

9 times out of 10 they are, but yeah, my mistake I guess.

With the apparent presence of MANY town aligned roles, I suppose I assumed the roleblocker would be mafia. If he existed.

Landerpurex · **Posted:** July 30th, 2012, 2:41 pm

Another thing that alarms me is that Monk hasn't claimed.

At any rate, Penguin, I gave my reasoning for voting for Monk. There was next to zero activity when I voted for him the first time. Now what? People are posting. Since then, he's done nothing to convince me that he isn't mafia.

And interestingly, if there were a town-aligned roleblocker, it wouldn't guarantee Monk's innocence like he (and others) believe. :?:

Riptide · **Posted:** July 30th, 2012, 2:57 pm

PenguinGuy wrote:

Riptide, for your alignment, Pirates are town, Mutineers are Mafia. As for your role, who did you watch N1?

Lookout would refer to pirates, so I'm assuming I'm pro-town. I watched Market N1.

PenguinGuy · **Posted:** July 30th, 2012, 3:03 pm

Landerpurex wrote:

With the apparent presence of MANY town aligned roles, I suppose I assumed the roleblocker would be mafia. If he existed.

We so far know of three town roles. Strong Swimmer-Godders, Captain-Market Man, (Claimed) Drunk-Kikori. If the roleblocker is Town, that would make four pro-town roles. A bit of speculation, but 2 mafia 8 town is too little mafia, and 3 mafia 7 town is too much mafia, so four pro-town roles could be to balance a large mafia, and mafia roleblocker could be to balance a small mafia. Basically, both two or three mafia is possible, and mafia or town roleblocker is possible.\

Ninja edit:

Landerpurex wrote:

Another thing that alarms me is that Monk hasn't claimed.

Now that you mention it that is strange. Might be because he simply gave up yesterday, but I don't know why he hasn't today.

Landerpurex wrote:

At any rate, Penguin, I gave my reasoning for voting for Monk. There was next to zero activity when I voted for him the first time. Now what? People are posting. Since then, he's done nothing to convince me that he isn't mafia.

I agree with all of that. But ending a 72 hour day in less that 12 is a little hasty.

Landerpurex wrote:

And interestingly, if there were a town-aligned roleblocker, it wouldn't guarantee Monk's innocence like he (and others) believe. :?:

Also true, but Monk is suggesting that there is something more to the roleblock that will somehow verify him. At least for now we should roll with it.

Ninja Edit2:Riptide, did he go anywhere?

Scar · **Posted:** July 30th, 2012, 5:28 pm

As far as I know I havn't been role-blocked yet in this game.

---

Sighence wrote:

Now as for my new target, it's Riptide. Welcome to my train. Oh, wait, it left the station yesterday, when you were posting but not voting to try to look town when I flipped, sir.

While I will give you that he may not have hammered you, that doesn't mean he is Mafia pretending to be Scum. It just means he wasn't comfortable voting for you at that time.

Quote:

Aragorn had a perfectly clean reason to hammer me - or even vote me long before - yesterday and didn't take it. Only a townie would have any reason in the slightest to do so.

To my mind, that makes 3-4 townies: myself (shut up I know I'm a villager and you will too with the other roleblocked person) Kik, Aragorn, and Mystery Roleblocked Man.

As for my suspects, it's Riptide, Penguin, and Topsummoner.

Where does that put me in your opinion? Also Aragorn did vote for you today.

Quote:

Penguin believes that my argument is an exact duplication of my last game's argument. His semantics over Scar saying that Aragorn is always attacked for inconsistency fails to see the obvious: it's because Aragorn is inconsistent. My last game was a fake use of this now-real inconsistency, born by being utterly inept at the mafia side of this game. tl;dr: My argument was actually true this time, just misdirected and differently motivated.

Your argument was complete bollocks to begin with, simply for the reason you said. He is inconsistent in every game, when you are consistently inconsistent that makes you consistent at some level. Add to that what everyone else has pointed out, the lack of substantial evidence for your theory, and you can see why no one really bought into this idea.

Quote:

Topsummoner voted for me for "using being roleblocked to try to look town" and "giving up". The latter was caused by sickness. Call it a lame excuse, whatever, I don't care, that's what happened. The former, as we all now know, seems to be pretty damn lame, as this isn't all that varianty, and even if not, as I'm sure the next victim can confirm, is pretty damningly mafia-side blockage. Top then calls all that speculation irrelevant, but then proceeds to vote for me for thinking that it is. Nope, let's not focus on the roleblocker. Nope, don't want that. Can't have a suspected mafia special role running about here. Gotta lynch that kind of thinking. I've no proof, but my guess is Top's our blocker.

You keep saying this other role-blocked person will prove you are town, but everyone seems to have posted today and no one else seems to have been role-blocked...

Sighence

Riptide · **Posted:** July 30th, 2012, 7:39 pm

PenguinGuy wrote:

[
Ninja Edit2:Riptide, did he go anywhere?

Nope.

Riptide · **Posted:** July 30th, 2012, 7:41 pm

Also double posting because PM's.
Doc clarified on the bold uncolored text in my PM. I am pro-town.

Pirates, Mafia at Sea: THE MUTINY HAS BEEN SUCCESSFUL!

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