ELECTION MAFIA - GAME OVER

tau_xi · **Posted:** January 13th, 2017, 2:57 pm

Paidea wrote:

Landerpurex wrote:

Paidea wrote:

Landerpurex wrote:

Also remember that the extra 12 hours added is arguably the town's biggest weapon this game.

How?

I shouldn't have to explain this, especially to you. But I suppose I will. An extra 12 hours to play in a day is an obvious boon to the town because the more mafiosos talk, the more likely they are to mess up. Painfully simple. Not sure if the aforementioned quote is you being purposefully dense or....I don't know. But I would be very interested to know your alignment.

You're constructing a narrative about how you think the game will go, and it's not consistent. Earlier you said,

Quote:

Goes without saying the best course of action is to discuss who we think is mafia, come to a consensus for a "lynch", and elect someone that will carry out said lynch.

which implies that the Elected will lynch whoever we came to a consensus on regardless of those extra 12 hours. That'ts why I asked the question. You said that we should determine the lynch beforehand but are also saying that the time afterwards is an "obvious boon to the Town".

To elaborate on this: it makes no sense that scum talking post-election is a boon for town, because if lynch consensus determined prior to election is correct (i.e. scum) than the president should carry out the lynch regardless (in fact, I believe that is the main reason for the extra 12 hours; in case the president is not active for some time after Top declares them elected). And if it's incorrect (i.e. we collectively decided to lynch a villager) than the scum will lay low and do little to counter that decision.

SparkyAMS wrote:

I actually doubt there's more than one Illuminati in this game.

While I agree that the voting mechanic means it's a little trickier for town, having only one scum seems like the possibility of a short, unsatisfying game is too high... it seems more likely to me that there are at least two scum-aligned players (so perhaps one Illuminati, but also some other faction).

SparkyAMS wrote:

It may have more hours to the day, (to account for having to come to two different consensuses)
but there is also a bigger chance of two citizen deaths per day,
and the added detriment of the guilt of the president for carrying out the bad lynch and looking suspicious,
which will turn the entire next day to him having to plead innocence and wasting the day.

If Spiro gets elected, kills Jaron, and Jaron ends up being citizen (which I personally am betting)
Do we end up with no blame on Spiro because he was just doing what he was told?
But then what happens when an elected Illuminati kills a citizen because he was told to, does he just get the benefit of the doubt?

So its all pretty much lose lose for the citizens unless we get very lucky.

I think the best course of analysis is simply to ignore who was our lynching vassal unless they go against our wishes. Again, this is precisely why I'm voting for Spiro despite my not being sure he is town. In fact, given that none of us will ever think of each other as 100% likely to be town, it's the only sensible way to approach the presidency issue. That said, the way in which the president is elected (who suggested it, the order of votes, etc.) could still be useful information.

tau_xi · **Posted:** January 13th, 2017, 3:03 pm

tau_xi wrote:

To elaborate on this: it makes no sense that scum talking post-election is a boon for town, because if lynch consensus determined prior to election is correct (i.e. scum) than the president should carry out the lynch regardless (in fact, I believe that is the main reason for the extra 12 hours; in case the president is not active for some time after Top declares them elected). And if it's incorrect (i.e. we collectively decided to lynch a villager) than the scum will lay low and do little to counter that decision.

Whoops, apart from I think incorrectly using "than" instead of "then", I should reword my first point: if lynch consensus is correct, the scum talking makes no difference because we should assume the president will carry the lynch.

SparkyAMS · **Posted:** January 13th, 2017, 3:07 pm

I'm just saying it might be smarter to vote for who to lynch after voting for the president.
Because then he has to go through with it even if they say to kill his partner.
Otherwise you'll have a bad guy saying "I'll vote for this guy you all hate" knowing full well that its a citizen, and getting to avoid blame.

If you do the lynch vote after, then only a citizen would even run for president out of fear of being made to kill his partner.

But that's just what I'm thinking. that's why Spiro's "vote for me and I'll kill Saten" is a scary way to do things from my perspective.

Also I nominated Spiro before he said he'd kill Saten, hell on the first day he voted him for President...

tau_xi · **Posted:** January 13th, 2017, 3:10 pm

Ah, that's an interesting point. The problem is the lack of time we have to discuss following an election. Perhaps we should also starting voting for the next day's president? But that would still be complicated by whatever happens in the night.

Spirographed · **Posted:** January 13th, 2017, 3:33 pm

SparkyAMS wrote:

I'm just saying it might be smarter to vote for who to lynch after voting for the president.
Because then he has to go through with it even if they say to kill his partner.
Otherwise you'll have a bad guy saying "I'll vote for this guy you all hate" knowing full well that its a citizen, and getting to avoid blame.

If you do the lynch vote after, then only a citizen would even run for president out of fear of being made to kill his partner.

But that's just what I'm thinking. that's why Spiro's "vote for me and I'll kill Saten" is a scary way to do things from my perspective.

Also I nominated Spiro before he said he'd kill Saten, hell on the first day he voted him for President...

But, can you imagine the advantage that someone who campaigned to kill another, and the another turned out to be mafia? A mafia dead, and a pretty much confirmed town. All the Dr., if there is a Dr. would have to do is protect them and such.

Rory · **Posted:** January 14th, 2017, 1:37 am

Paidea wrote:

Rory wrote:

[...] but I just find it interesting that you haven't mentioned anything about me either.[...]

Don't take it personally

It's because I've played a lot more games with Lander than with you. (Technically I've played 0 games with you). I freely admit that I am paranoid. But it's important to call out Lander for things I deem suspicious, as it's unlikely that the rest of the player-list will (in my opinion).

tau_xi wrote:

Ah, that's an interesting point. The problem is the lack of time we have to discuss following an election. Perhaps we should also starting voting for the next day's president? But that would still be complicated by whatever happens in the night.

That's a fair point, actually.

tau_xi wrote:

Ah, that's an interesting point. The problem is the lack of time we have to discuss following an election. Perhaps we should also starting voting for the next day's president? But that would still be complicated by whatever happens in the night.

I don't think that'll end well, the mafia could just kill them during the night, or if there are other roles, mess it up.

Rory · **Posted:** January 14th, 2017, 3:14 am

If it wasn't obvious, the first tau_xi was an error.

Komoe Tsukuyomi · **Posted:** January 14th, 2017, 4:15 am

SparkyAMS wrote:

If you do the lynch vote after, then only a citizen would even run for president out of fear of being made to kill his partner.

But thats also a very good reason for the iloomenaughty to run for President, especially early game. The chances that we can suss out a proper Bad Hombre and not just lynch an innocent Villager is low. If an iloomenaughty is Prez and they have to give the order on an inno, so what? Thats their goal.

If by chance we found one and they have to give the order on their comrade, well Fuzzy Bunny

sucks for them. But now we have an iloomenaughty with a big ol shiny alibi.

Landerpurex · **Posted:** January 14th, 2017, 8:12 am

Paidea wrote:

Landerpurex wrote:

Paidea wrote:

Landerpurex wrote:

Also remember that the extra 12 hours added is arguably the town's biggest weapon this game.

How?

I shouldn't have to explain this, especially to you. But I suppose I will. An extra 12 hours to play in a day is an obvious boon to the town because the more mafiosos talk, the more likely they are to mess up. Painfully simple. Not sure if the aforementioned quote is you being purposefully dense or....I don't know. But I would be very interested to know your alignment.

You're constructing a narrative about how you think the game will go, and it's not consistent. Earlier you said,

Quote:

Goes without saying the best course of action is to discuss who we think is mafia, come to a consensus for a "lynch", and elect someone that will carry out said lynch.

which implies that the Elected will lynch whoever we came to a consensus on regardless of those extra 12 hours. That'ts why I asked the question. You said that we should determine the lynch beforehand but are also saying that the time afterwards is an "obvious boon to the Town".

Sparky has more or less saved me from having to explain this with his in-depth WIFOM. Two outcomes are possible: decide on a lynch and then elect a president to carry out said lynch or elect a president we think has the town's best interest at heart and then discuss the lynch. Or, as it's happening now, just let things develop organically. Any way you slice it th day phase is for one thing only: killing mafiosos. Any extension of the day phase to further discussion and put more time between us and a nightkill is invaluable. Seemed obvious to me. My statement about coming to a consensus for a lynch and the extra 12 hours being a boon for the town are not mutually exclusive.

paidea wrote:

Landerpurex wrote:

[...]I'm comfortable lynching Jaron and I would be very wary of tau.

Landerpurex wrote:

Paidea wrote:

Jaron is roleplaying which actually points to him being Mafia based on previous games (IIRC).

To elaborate on my suspicion of Jaron: He roleplays mafia games more often than not, especially when there is a theme or it is a variant. Annoying, but I would not condemn him just for that. Actually I think he is on record saying he has retired from (standard) mafia leaving only variants or themed games for him to guest appear in and roleplay every single one.

Other than that, as I always say, purposefully being vague or contrarian (PYRO) even as a townie can hurt the town or game overall. We have come to a head over this before and we likely will again. But furthermore, I was thinking more along the lines of why jackstick would be the target for the kill given his track record in mafia games (wildly unpredictable, similar to Jaron/Pyro/muffin in his style) and I asked myself who would have most likely wanted him dead, and the answer was 'probably Jaron'.

Now this makes me wary. Analyzing night kills can be moderately useful in later stages of the game, but you know better than to try to read into the Night One kill. That is a WIFOM tactic and you know it. Furthermore, there's gotta be more than 1 mafioso.

It doesn't help that Jaron is defending from it with pure WIFOM of his own.

What else did we have to go on at that point in time? Had the kill been sparky, or Rory, or tau, there would be little to be gained from looking into it but because the kill was jack, given his track record in the past, I think there is information to be gained from thinking about who killed him.

At any rate, I'll ask one more time, very succinctly and clearly: tau, I had made two posts in the game and you had decided you were suspicious of me. Why? Unless I'm missing something, you have yet to give any real reasons other than my first post D2 was late to your liking.

Lastly, I believe it is very dangerous to elect president/s who have contributed little to the actual discussion. Tomorrow consider voting for me, paidea, or sparky. It's hard to tell their intentions and alignment when they have barely posted anything of substance and sparky's train of thought, while long and winding, is very valid. I think it'll be more important to elect someone we can trust versus someone who has agreed to carry out a specific lynch for reasons that have been stated.

Spirographed · **Posted:** January 14th, 2017, 9:42 am

Spirographed wrote:

Landerpurex wrote:

Possible theory is that you can say you were for the Jaron lynch, but in reality you don't put forth the action to get it done.

Getting more of this train of thought vibe from you, Lander. Because A.) You didn't even respond to this. And B.) The post you just made.

I just don't think waiting around to reach a vote for someone to lynch and then waiting around to vote for someone to carry out the lynch is great for the town. We usually have a problem getting the first done, without even adding the second in. We could go around in circles all day about which way is better, but that isn't going to help the town. We need to lynch. That is always my stance for the town. We need to lynch. That's how we get mafia. A lynch today, given the discussion we've had is beneficial for the town, even if the person we lynch is town. I'm thinking Jaron is not town. It's obviously a guess, but his (or anyone's) death will be great information. Don't talk about it, Lander. Be about it. Put some action forth with your talk. It's how the town wins. And that goes for everyone who hasnt voted. Diddy said it best: VOTE OR DIE!!!!!!

SparkyAMS · **Posted:** January 14th, 2017, 1:53 pm

There's many things I do and do not agree about, but one thing is true, we probably should get on this whole president thing if anythings gonna get done.

It's currently an uncontested 3 votes for Spiro.

So I would say if you haven't voted yet, It's because you either don't like Spiro, DO like Saten, or think someone else would be better.

Well? Do it then!

Either give us someone else to vote for, or add the two remaining votes to get part one of the day done.

As I said before I personally think Saten is innocent, so if you give me another option I'll probably switch.

tau_xi · **Posted:** January 14th, 2017, 3:03 pm

Landerpurex wrote:

At any rate, I'll ask one more time, very succinctly and clearly: tau, I had made two posts in the game and you had decided you were suspicious of me. Why? Unless I'm missing something, you have yet to give any real reasons other than my first post D2 was late to your liking.

Actually, this is the first time you've asked. Nice attempt to make me look more suspicious, though.

On D1, you committed as little as technically possible:

Landerpurex wrote:

topsummoner

Then, as you mentioned, your first D2 post is what tasted sour to me. Let's look at it again:

Landerpurex wrote:

Welp.

Goes without saying the best course of action is to discuss who we think is mafia, come to a consensus for a "lynch", and elect someone that will carry out said lynch.

Also remember that the extra 12 hours added is arguably the town's biggest weapon this game.

So who killed jack? JARON????

A useless combination of serious-but-shallow analysis followed by a joke. Moreover, I hadn't noticed before now, but making Jaron the target of your joke could have been an attempt to render any suspicious things he says with a veneer of "we're all just joking".

Everything you've posted since has been carefully considered misdirection. And notably, as raised by Sparky and Spiro above, despite all your talk, it appears that you're doing your best to stagnate the town. In your most recent post:
[quote="Landerpurex"]Lastly, I believe it is very dangerous to elect president/s who have contributed little to the actual discussion. Tomorrow consider voting for me, paidea, or sparky. It's hard to tell their intentions and alignment when they have barely posted anything of substance and sparky's train of thought, while long and winding, is very valid. I think it'll be more important to elect someone we can trust versus someone who has agreed to carry out a specific lynch for reasons that have been stated.[/p]
Why not vote for yourself, Paidea or Sparky today, since there is still a little breathing room? What harm would it do, apart from possibly getting something done, if you plan to vote for one of them tomorrow?

Saten Ruiko · **Posted:** January 14th, 2017, 3:48 pm

I think I like tau as a Mafia player. Have we played together before?

Anyway yes, the Village's downfall is always that they don't get around to lynching anyone. I kind of thought it'd be a different case this time, which is pretty much the only reason I joined up. Apparently it's not. Spiro's gunning exclusively for me (I am aghast, aghast I tell you!) and I guess no one else wants to volunteer possibly having innocent blood on their hands and their hands alone.

Soooooooo

Vote: SparkyAMS

I've been happy with Sparky's posts. Not the part about how he doesn't suspect me (I'm Mafia you fool, Spiro said so!) but all the analysis, like these snippets:

SparkyAMS wrote:

If Spiro gets elected, kills Jaron, and Jaron ends up being citizen ... Do we end up with no blame on Spiro because he was just doing what he was told?

SparkyAMS wrote:

If you do the lynch vote after, then only a citizen would even run for president out of fear of being made to kill his partner.

Everyone else seems to be treating this as a standard Mafia game. Sparky is actually delving into all of the nuances of what the President-elect changes, and that's what I wanted to see out of this game all along.

tau_xi · **Posted:** January 14th, 2017, 3:57 pm

With that post by Jaron, I'm even more confident he is scum. He's gone unexpectedly out of character in an attempt to split the vote right when pressure is building to vote Spiro and therefore take him down.

I agree that Sparky is looking very town, but those quotes are a weak reason to vote for him. Not only is the analysis they contain not bullet-proof (just take Komoe's clear rebuttal above), it's uh, not exactly unique. I raised similar thoughts in the second post of the entire game.

Saten Ruiko · **Posted:** January 14th, 2017, 4:06 pm

tau_xi wrote:

With that post by Jaron, I'm even more confident he is scum. He's gone unexpectedly out of character in an attempt to split the vote right when pressure is building to vote Spiro and therefore take him down.

I agree that Sparky is looking very town, but those quotes are a weak reason to vote for him. Not only is the analysis they contain not bullet-proof (just take Komoe's clear rebuttal above), it's uh, not exactly unique. I raised similar thoughts in the second post of the entire game.

Oh, I'm sorry! I'll get back into character for you and never leave it again.

Would you prefer that I

A) Vote for the person who's going to kill me if I elect them?

Wait, wait, there's another option!

B) Not vote for anyone at all and instead have ended the day without saying anything, thereby stagnating the town?

Wow, I feel like option B is even more scummy than what I ended up doing, which is voting!

If I vote for Spiro, I'll get killed. If I don't vote for Spiro, despite trying to drive activity, I'm "splitting the vote". If I weren't already the leader of the Mafia Illuminati, I'd be pretty darn annoyed at the no-win scenario you're trying to paint me in right now!

tau_xi · **Posted:** January 14th, 2017, 4:52 pm

I stand by my accusation. Despite Jaron joining only out of the hope that we'd be quicker on our feet to lynch, he spent D1 and the majority of D2 on the sidelines of real discussion. If he had a town-aligned role, that's not consistent.

My current read:
1. Paidea - likely town; but if I'm wrong about Lander/Jaron, Paidea's walked a clever line between contributing but not drawing attention
2. Spirographed - likely town; I did accuse him earlier but I feel quite good about him now
3. Landerpurex - likely scum; reasons already stated
4. Rory - possible town; difficult to read due to fewer posts
5. SparkyAMS - very likely town; his voice seems too transparent and genuine to be otherwise
6. Jackstick - confirmed town
7. Komoe Tsukuyomi - possible town; difficult to read due to fewer posts
8. tau_xi - town (tau-n!)
9. Saten Ruiko - likely scum; he's admitted it himself many times, let's take him at his word

Can I suggest that regardless of how this day/night turn out, that we all commit to voting in our very first D3 posts? By then, you should have enough of an opinion to cast a vote, even if it's for yourself. This will provide town some momentum and information to make it a productive day.

Saten Ruiko · **Posted:** January 14th, 2017, 5:04 pm

tau_xi wrote:

I stand by my accusation. Despite Jaron joining only out of the hope that we'd be quicker on our feet to lynch, he spent D1 and the majority of D2 on the sidelines of real discussion. If he had a town-aligned role, that's not consistent.

Totally not consistent. I suck at hiding when Mafia. By the way, Paidea, Lander, Rory, and Komoe haven't voted yet either. I doubt all five of us could be Mafia, but if that's your reasoning...

tau_xi wrote:

Can I suggest that regardless of how this day/night turn out, that we all commit to voting in our very first D3 posts? By then, you should have enough of an opinion to cast a vote, even if it's for yourself. This will provide town some momentum and information to make it a productive day.

We should do this! And anyone that DOESN'T do so should immediately get a lot of suspicion because it means A) they don't really intend to vote anyway and B) they're not reading these posts. Those aren't useful people! As Mafia, I'll know who to avoid killing off N3.

SparkyAMS · **Posted:** January 14th, 2017, 7:30 pm

@tau, if you think what Komo posted counts as a rebuttal, then you sure don't get what I've been saying.

SparkyAMS

If voted in I declare that I will vote for: REDACTED

Landerpurex · **Posted:** January 14th, 2017, 7:33 pm

SparkyAMS

Rory · **Posted:** January 14th, 2017, 7:42 pm

I'm not understanding something with Jaron's posts. Why does he keep pressing the claim that he's mafia? Because as far as I can tell, it's because some people believe he's scummy. I'm not buying it.
I do get that this game is about suspicion, but still.

A quick browse of posts D2 shows me that tau believes him to be mafia, he wants to take Jaron's word for it that Jaron is mafia. I'm not sure what sort of play this would be, openly admitting you're mafia.

Lander thinks he should be lynched if we vote a president. Speaking of, SparkyAMs. I have no reason to believe he's scum at this point.

ELECTION MAFIA - GAME OVER

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