Upick Revengeance - GAME SET

Kikori · **Posted:** April 5th, 2014, 10:26 am

Thr. I know we all have custom roles, but the flavor text pretty clearly showed someone went after him, so one of those ideas is fluff, and two of the others are repeats. I'm starting to bank on that silly Jester joke train being a vote deflector.

I think I see what Thr's saying. Instead of an actual protected victim coming forth, Aragorn could be Mafia and have a custom role that instead makes him appear to be the attacked person, "clearing" him as a townie. Plausible, but insanely circumstantial. Enough so that it wouldn't fit the bill of what's been done with roles before. My vote's going to stand.

Aragorn Ix · **Posted:** April 5th, 2014, 10:38 am

Thr wrote:

Aragorn Ix wrote:

Thr wrote:

Dr Henry wrote:

Muscular Ape wrote:

That being said, Occam's razor would make short work of the above, if such a thing is still applicable in Upick. I know in crazy power games I've played elsewhere it certainly isn't applicable.

It can be applicable at times.

Top's post says two things that happened last night:
1) Aragorn was attacked
2) Aragorn survived the attack

Now people are discussing whether he was attacked twice, people were roleblocked, doctors, vigilantes, batman.

If we go by the information given, it does not explicitly state WHO came for him in the night, so I would not go as far as to state that he is cleared, but obviously there is a high likelihood of it being mafia due to the lack of other known information. Just would not advise anyone to completely clear him just yet.

A vigilante in such a role-heavy game isn't unheard of, but is also a bit risky due to the randomness and the inbalance it can make of the already hard-to-balance role structure. A one-shot kill ability, perhaps a suicide bomber or something of that ilk, seems more likely. Pure speculation at the moment though.

Partially agree with Lander about Sighence's post, yet I don't feel that SCREAMS mafia to me.

For some reason, every time I play with Thr he gives me a mafia vibe, but the accusations of 'Jester' mean that I don't really want to vote for him right now.

That may just be my class showing.

Also, I still think there's a chance the Aragorns role replaces mafia nightkill. It could be he gets a fake attack on him. Secondly There is a chance there is a vigilantly but with limited kills maybe? Hence no night kill tonight.
Thirdly the second thing that happened may have been a roleblock. That could have also blocked someone from doing a kill.

(I quoted Henry on this because I didn't want to double post, and still say i was classy)

Regardless of the game style if someone survives an attack on night 1 and no other activity happens (or is made apparent to the village) the likelihood is that the person is a townie. Are you suggesting that I activated my role on night one (usually these kinds of OP actions are one shot) and wasted it straight away? I certainly wouldn't be using a role that stops the mafia nightkill on day one, that's just stupid. And finally, even if that was the case, why would that be a mafia role? How would replacing the mafia nightkill be beneficial to the mafia in any way, shape or form?

I'm getting more suspicious of you as mafia now.

I am stating that it may be an ability to make YOU look like the target. If used on night one suspicion of YOU would be erased pretty much the whole game. That means you could fly under the radar and you could do your mafia things. I think that would be better used than a night one kill. It would only need to be one shot.

Are you supposing that role can be used to replace the mafia kill or as well as? Because if it replaces the mafia kill it still isn't worth it and if it is alongside the mafia kill then someone would still have died night one and we would have to know about it...

Dr Henry · **Posted:** April 5th, 2014, 12:08 pm

I don't have a clue what Thr is talking about.

Tennis Ace. Stating that Aragorn is 100% villager in a UPick game from one 'attack' from an unknown origin (vigilante/mafia/etc.) sounds fishy. In fact, it sounds like a mafia who KNOWS Aragorn is a villager, as you were part of the failed attack, and are trying to at least get him on side by 'voting for anyone who thinks otherwise'.

All we know is that Aragorn was attacked, and it was unsuccessful. It does not 'prove' any actual allegiance, especially not in such a set-up.

Thr · **Posted:** April 5th, 2014, 12:16 pm

Kikori wrote:

Thr. I know we all have custom roles, but the flavor text pretty clearly showed someone went after him, so one of those ideas is fluff, and two of the others are repeats. I'm starting to bank on that silly Jester joke train being a vote deflector.

I think I see what Thr's saying. Instead of an actual protected victim coming forth, Aragorn could be Mafia and have a custom role that instead makes him appear to be the attacked person, "clearing" him as a townie. Plausible, but insanely circumstantial. Enough so that it wouldn't fit the bill of what's been done with roles before. My vote's going to stand.

That is exactly what I was trying to say. Its a mafia role that lets him look like a townie, by a fake attack. (I think this is a possibility) And yes the jester was me joking.

Sighence · **Posted:** April 5th, 2014, 1:06 pm

Landerpurex wrote:

[b]Sighence[/b

I was waiting for this. 'Taunting the mafia' is not 'congratulating the doctor', the actual mafia tell you and Doc have conflated here.

Thr's idea is possible, but not one we've ever seen here. I gotta see how a few people respond to their current loose ends before I feel comfortable voting for him or his accusers, though.

Aragorn Ix · **Posted:** April 5th, 2014, 2:21 pm

Thr wrote:

Kikori wrote:

Thr. I know we all have custom roles, but the flavor text pretty clearly showed someone went after him, so one of those ideas is fluff, and two of the others are repeats. I'm starting to bank on that silly Jester joke train being a vote deflector.

I think I see what Thr's saying. Instead of an actual protected victim coming forth, Aragorn could be Mafia and have a custom role that instead makes him appear to be the attacked person, "clearing" him as a townie. Plausible, but insanely circumstantial. Enough so that it wouldn't fit the bill of what's been done with roles before. My vote's going to stand.

That is exactly what I was trying to say. Its a mafia role that lets him look like a townie, by a fake attack. (I think this is a possibility) And yes the jester was me joking.

Right so as I thought, it would be a pointless exercise. Useful later in the game maybe, but it makes far more sense to get kills at night than waste a nights kill on an effort to appear non-mafia.

Tennis Ace · **Posted:** April 5th, 2014, 4:10 pm

Dr Henry wrote:

I don't have a clue what Thr is talking about.

Tennis Ace. Stating that Aragorn is 100% villager in a UPick game from one 'attack' from an unknown origin (vigilante/mafia/etc.) sounds fishy. In fact, it sounds like a mafia who KNOWS Aragorn is a villager, as you were part of the failed attack, and are trying to at least get him on side by 'voting for anyone who thinks otherwise'.

All we know is that Aragorn was attacked, and it was unsuccessful. It does not 'prove' any actual allegiance, especially not in such a set-up.

This is extremely counterintuitive, but I do see where you are coming from, if you are Mafia or village.

The thing is, I don't want to be wishy-washy on this. Other people are saying that Aragorn's attack "could" make him a Mafia member based on a variety of weird circumstantial things. To me, it would be too much of a coincidence. I personally believe a Mafia member would be much more likely to play like Kikori. I think Thr is misguided, and Kikori is jumping on that early for a logical lynch, which could then turn up Villager, but of which we all would be like, "Well, Thr did make some really strange accusations." But in the end, the winner in that situation is just the Mafia.

So right now, Ape and Kikori are on my radar.
I believe Aragorn and Thr to be Villagers.

Pick this apart as you will, but I want to leave my thoughts out in the open if I *do* get lynched or night-killed.

Muscular Ape · **Posted:** April 5th, 2014, 6:20 pm

Tennis Ace wrote:

^ And if that assumption is correct, it also presumes that Jaron is Village and that Ape is just trying to deflect attention to him.

Deflecting attention is a pretty big reach; it was a simple question with a simple answer and then the discussion rightfully ended. What am I supposed to be deflecting from, exactly?

bluecoat · **Posted:** April 5th, 2014, 6:56 pm

THIS DAY IS DEFICIENT IN VOTES. I work all day yesterday, forget to check the computer in the evening, work all day today, realize at 5 pm that I haven't checked mafia in two days, and COME BACK TO A WALL OF POINTLESS SPECULATION AND SHAMEFUL FINGERING. The only vote I see that I remotely agree with (other than my own, which I always agree with) is Tennis Ace's vote for Kikori. Seems plausible enough.

The last few games I've played have had few if any lynches, SO I, BLUECOAT, PLEDGE TO DO MY PART BY NOT DOING MY USUAL BULLSHIT OF ONLY VOTING ON TRAINS I START MYSELF.

You all can thank me by voting for Dr. Henry.

Kikori · **Posted:** April 5th, 2014, 7:13 pm

Tennis Ace wrote:

The thing is, I don't want to be wishy-washy on this. Other people are saying that Aragorn's attack "could" make him a Mafia member based on a variety of weird circumstantial things. To me, it would be too much of a coincidence. I personally believe a Mafia member would be much more likely to play like Kikori. I think Thr is misguided, and Kikori is jumping on that early for a logical lynch, which could then turn up Villager, but of which we all would be like, "Well, Thr did make some really strange accusations." But in the end, the winner in that situation is just the Mafia.

It's his fourth game, but he's trying to go along with both an established Mafia method of "Post some but say nothing" and going on a rather wild tangent about a nearly one-in-one-hundred shot role that would drop the credibility of Aragorn's being protected. Unless that's him soft claiming his role (which would be stupid, given I still feel he's a Mafia), it's the kind of overthinking that's made to raise eyebrows and shake heads instead of bring thought.
So yes, it's a logical vote. What's new? It still stands.

Kikori · **Posted:** April 5th, 2014, 7:14 pm

bluecoat wrote:

I haven't checked mafia in two days, and COME BACK TO A WALL OF POINTLESS SPECULATION AND SHAMEFUL FINGERING. The only vote I see that I remotely agree with (other than my own, which I always agree with) is Tennis Ace's vote for Kikori.

Says the guy who calls out "pointless speculation" but doesn't vote for the one making the most pointless speculations and offers nothing against the guy he votes for. :?:

bluecoat · **Posted:** April 5th, 2014, 7:37 pm

I can't vote for everyone, although that would be an awesome mafia ability. TOP, GET CRACKING ON THAT FOR NEXT GAME.

Muscular Ape · **Posted:** April 5th, 2014, 8:02 pm

Yeah, I think Thr crossed the line between plausible and implausible with his suggestion of that rather strange role (I've never heard of it personally). However I think that's just Thr being Thr rather than anything sinister.

I agree with others that despite there being several possibilities, a failed mafia kill is the most likely, and that Aragorn is probably town.

Dr Henry · **Posted:** April 5th, 2014, 8:43 pm

Tennis Ace wrote:

Dr Henry wrote:

I don't have a clue what Thr is talking about.

Tennis Ace. Stating that Aragorn is 100% villager in a UPick game from one 'attack' from an unknown origin (vigilante/mafia/etc.) sounds fishy. In fact, it sounds like a mafia who KNOWS Aragorn is a villager, as you were part of the failed attack, and are trying to at least get him on side by 'voting for anyone who thinks otherwise'.

All we know is that Aragorn was attacked, and it was unsuccessful. It does not 'prove' any actual allegiance, especially not in such a set-up.

This is extremely counterintuitive, but I do see where you are coming from, if you are Mafia or village.

The thing is, I don't want to be wishy-washy on this. Other people are saying that Aragorn's attack "could" make him a Mafia member based on a variety of weird circumstantial things. To me, it would be too much of a coincidence. I personally believe a Mafia member would be much more likely to play like Kikori. I think Thr is misguided, and Kikori is jumping on that early for a logical lynch, which could then turn up Villager, but of which we all would be like, "Well, Thr did make some really strange accusations." But in the end, the winner in that situation is just the Mafia.

So right now, Ape and Kikori are on my radar.
I believe Aragorn and Thr to be Villagers.

Pick this apart as you will, but I want to leave my thoughts out in the open if I *do* get lynched or night-killed.

Unvote Good enough for me. I just wanted to make sure you didn't fall completely into a trap of believing, without any doubt, Aragorn's innocence. The vote was for both your attention, and to make sure others didn't follow your '100%' attitude. Nothing in a UPick game is 100%.

I do agree with you on the speculation of Thr being misguided. Judging from the way he has played the previous few games, he does make strange accusations but as the game progresses he refines them and makes more sense (sometimes...), not convinced that a player opting for the 'logical lynch' equates to mafia though. I'm fairly sure, and anyone is welcome to correct me if I am wrong, that Kikori plays like this in most games, mafia or not, so confused by the 'a mafia would play like Kikori' sentence. Could you please clarify this?

I want to hear from Spiro and Sparky. Both are yet to post today (unless I am blind).

Landerpurex · **Posted:** April 5th, 2014, 9:04 pm

Dr Henry wrote:

I want to hear from Spiro and Sparky. Both are yet to post today (unless I am blind).

+1

I absolutely do not agree with the thr train. I am equally perturbed at kikori's involvement with it. What's more bothersome to me is Bluecoat's vote for him.

I know he's only being half serious still at this point with what he's said, like 'trying to get involved in trains he doesn't start'. His explanation of 'seems plausible enough' ironically isn't enough.

SparkyAMS · **Posted:** April 5th, 2014, 9:58 pm

It would seem illogical to ignore what Mr. Copper said, and everything else seems like hype to me this early in the trial.

So, Bluecoat.

bluecoat · **Posted:** April 6th, 2014, 1:38 am

Come on guys, you know me better than this. I wouldn't vote for somebody without reason.

My role is bluecoat, and I'm the village dungeon master. I'm village aligned (of course I'd say that), but my existence adds a randomness to every role in the game. If you randomly succeed or fail in an ability (~1/10), I know you tried something, but that's about it. I have to piece the rest together based on Top's day and night announcements. Kikori attempted a day action on D1 (towards the end of the day), and critically failed. I believe he accidentally targeted me for the whole "Don't trust" thing, and I wanted to [help] put the heat on him. Doesn't strike me as a villager role.

I don't learn anything about the action performed by the way, or the alignment, or the intended targets; the Kikori vote is based entirely circumcisional evidence, but the fact that someone else has a hunch about him is good enough for me to vote.

Sighence · **Posted:** April 6th, 2014, 3:38 am

bluecoat wrote:

circumcisional evidence

I love how targets always shift mid-day. Kikori's all-too-plausible deniability along with what Blue had to say are enough for me to feel confident with a vote for the moment.

Kikori · **Posted:** April 6th, 2014, 7:24 am

False.
I tried to put it on Thr for his soft claim of Jester.

I am Lesale the Venomancer (or just Venomancer for short, and I Fuzzy Bunny

love my role. Venomancer's got four very useful spells as a Dota 2 Hero, and James has made them very lovely, yet a tad overpowered.
Q - Venomous Gale: Single use night kill, due to its long cooldown.
W - Poison Sting: A passive that puts a rather long-lasting debuff on opponents. In this case? For the duration of the night on the last person I vote for in a day (Thr in this case), the person can not be protected by doctors for that night or the next. 'cause, you know, it has synergy with my Q.
E - Plague Ward: A ward that spits poison at any enemies I have is placed. I'll be honest, I was hoping this was the only spell I'd get with a main focus on killing invaders in the night, but he's sticking with Dota mechanics. I have to have Poison Sting "active" (as opposed to leveled in-game, it has to be applied to someone) for them to be hurt by it. If I guess right and sting a Mafia? I'm bulletproof from them for a night I feel threatened.
R - Poison Nova: Upon my death, everyone involved in my lynch or the person who night killed me will suffer a ton of poison. Unfortunately, it's never lethal. So (and we're back to my passive's synergy) only any Poison Sting victims will be killed.

The long and the short of it is, I'm a ticking time bomb that will try to take anyone I think's Mafia down with me when I die. And I can only do that by voting for people at the end of the day. I'd rather get the lynches, honestly, but damned if I'm not happy with trying to mark a potential Jester for death. Mafia would love to give him a win, some villagers will always want to avoid the lynch on him, and it's always a potential Mafia cover.
So once again. My vote stands on Thr.

Can't say I'm shocked about Bluecoat's role, to be honest. Saw my sting turned into a d20 role and said "... Fuzzy Bunny

."

Dr Henry · **Posted:** April 6th, 2014, 9:21 am

Wait what?

I don't get it :s

Upick Revengeance - GAME SET

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