Mafia - Day 12: Knockin' on Heaven's Door (DEMONIC WINS)

Aragorn Ix · **Posted:** March 30th, 2013, 10:40 pm

Landerpurex wrote:

And Mr. Aragorn, Mr. Jack of all Trades, did you ever investigate anyone? The volume and breadth of information in this game is boggling, so if you have to repeat yourself, I apologize.

I just recall you saying you were worthless after your kill, but don't seem to recall you claiming an investigation.

To save you backtracking:

Night 1: Tracked Godders, went to Top's house and died.
Night 2: Investigated Paidea: Possessed Villager and Nurse.
Night 3: Targeted MarketMan, blocked by Jaron's snowstorm
Night 4: Targeted MarketMan, killed, possessed villager.

I'm out of uses, so am basically an ordinary villager now.

imasquid · **Posted:** March 30th, 2013, 11:18 pm

JackStick]Kikori, Possessed Mafia and Mirror Mage, has been lynched.[/quote]J[quote="Landerpurex wrote:

I propose an idea. Let's lynch the balls off someone who either isn't active, or reeks more of mafia, and let me 'investigate' frisky tomorrow night. Regardless of the outcome of the investigation, if the guy isn't at home, I can't fail or succeed. The investigation won't happen.

3. Aragorn Ix - Almost certainly the JoaT and town-aligned.

You have convinced me to unvote Frisky and vote RatKing. Also, the first quote is for reference. Just because he is the JoAT does not mean that he is a townie. It would initially seem almost crazy to put him with the mafia. I think that given how weak the mafia appears to be in this game, it is possible that Jackstick would have put the JoAT with mafia to balance. We had a crazy strong power tied with the mafia already, why not another?

imasquid · **Posted:** March 30th, 2013, 11:28 pm

imasquid wrote:

JackStick]Kikori, Possessed Mafia and Mirror Mage, has been lynched.[/quote]J[quote="Landerpurex wrote:

I propose an idea. Let's lynch the balls off someone who either isn't active, or reeks more of mafia, and let me 'investigate' frisky tomorrow night. Regardless of the outcome of the investigation, if the guy isn't at home, I can't fail or succeed. The investigation won't happen.

3. Aragorn Ix - Almost certainly the JoaT and town-aligned.

You have convinced me to unvote Frisky and vote RatKing. Also, the first quote is for reference. Just because he is the JoAT does not mean that he is a townie. It would initially seem almost crazy to put him with the mafia. I think that given how weak the mafia appears to be in this game, it is possible that Jackstick would have put the JoAT with mafia to balance. We had a crazy strong power tied with the mafia already, why not another?

Please ignore the fact that between the site logging me off multiple times and the using the completely bassackwards hall computer the quotes became all jumpled. Let's try this again.

Jackstick wrote:

Kikori, Possessed Mafia and Mirror Mage, has been lynched.

Aragorn Ix · **Posted:** March 31st, 2013, 1:18 am

imasquid wrote:

JackStick]Kikori, Possessed Mafia and Mirror Mage, has been lynched.[/quote]J[quote="Landerpurex wrote:

I propose an idea. Let's lynch the balls off someone who either isn't active, or reeks more of mafia, and let me 'investigate' frisky tomorrow night. Regardless of the outcome of the investigation, if the guy isn't at home, I can't fail or succeed. The investigation won't happen.

3. Aragorn Ix - Almost certainly the JoaT and town-aligned.

You have convinced me to unvote Frisky and vote RatKing. Also, the first quote is for reference. Just because he is the JoAT does not mean that he is a townie. It would initially seem almost crazy to put him with the mafia. I think that given how weak the mafia appears to be in this game, it is possible that Jackstick would have put the JoAT with mafia to balance. We had a crazy strong power tied with the mafia already, why not another?

The JoAT is always a town role, I guess it could be third party but I highly doubt it's ever been a mafia role, mainly because it would be insanely overpowered in their hands. Notice how I was under no pressure to claim when I did, and everything I have done so far has helped the town (besides killing market, but that was down to luck).

Dr Henry · **Posted:** March 31st, 2013, 6:32 am

Lander, Monk was attacked by cult not Demon. It failed, he could be anything

We are so far into the game that I'm willing to go back and test the theory that he survived because he is demon or mafia, causing the fail.

Unfortunately, I no longer trust lander since his claim and worry that he may be a snake in the grass and clearing penguin, one of my heavy suspects, doesn't sit right

As for rat king, he could be anything at all, I agree his inactivity is detrimental to the game but killing him could go badly and we may be being swayed by a mafia or cultist to go for a inactive villager.

FriskyAlpaca · **Posted:** March 31st, 2013, 9:13 am

Explain "go badly", please? Do you fear he has a role? That he is a villager?

Here is what will happen if you lynch me. Village Commuter dies. Tonight the Mafia or Demon kills you/Henry, and possibly the demon turns or kills someone. The Mafia remains at their current strength 2-3 people. The town goes down to 10 and you have 1 person as the demon and the one known possessed Sayaka, who wants to help the village.

If he turns out to be village the numbers stay the same, but you will still have the commuter and evidence to the fact. However, the play could work in our favor, he could be inactive for a reason.

Dr Henry · **Posted:** March 31st, 2013, 9:26 am

FriskyAlpaca wrote:

Explain "go badly", please? Do you fear he has a role? That he is a villager?

Here is what will happen if you lynch me. Village Commuter dies. Tonight the Mafia or Demon kills you/Henry, and possibly the demon turns or kills someone. The Mafia remains at their current strength 2-3 people. The town goes down to 10 and you have 1 person as the demon and the one known possessed Sayaka, who wants to help the village.

If he turns out to be village the numbers stay the same, but you will still have the commuter and evidence to the fact. However, the play could work in our favor, he could be inactive for a reason.

No, we mislynch Rat and we lose him and others at night, we have probably been steered there by an active mafia who is managing to stay hidden because the demon aspect of the game is throwing us... This active mafia gets a strong position tomorrow, and we have wasted the day gunning for someone who can't fight back is an easy mafia ploy and gained no information about who is the mafia/demon.

And to make this perfectly clear to lander, who is somehow struggling to grasp a simple concept... Sayaka is a possessed villager. A godfather role wouldn't give that result, framing wouldn't either. Why are you trying to dispute this?

FriskyAlpaca · **Posted:** March 31st, 2013, 9:40 am

I am telling you the numbers stay relatively the same. I am a villager, and if Rat is too, then if you die tonight. The demon may either turn a villager, kill a villager or kill a mafia.

So it is either 9 villagers, 2-3 mafia, 1 possessed, and 1 demon
9 v, 1-2 m, 1p, 1d
10v, 2-3m, 2p, 1d
There are a couple other variations but these are the most likely given that someone will most likely take out Henry tonight. Just depends on if the demons wants to regain some control of the town.

Saten Ruiko · **Posted:** March 31st, 2013, 11:10 am

Unvote

Okay, here are my additional thoughts.

Sucks that Market died. I thought he was simply possessed, myself, though I wasn't certain he wasn't Mafia.

From Jackstick's opening post:

Jackstick wrote:

Jackstick: It's a strange feeling. These deaths have significantly weakened the Demon's control of the town, but it's not exactly something worth celebrating. Possessed or not, we lost two Villagers last night, and the Mafia remains at large. Is there a way out of this?

I would REALLY like to know how killing possessed people weakens the Demon's control of the town. Let's say the Demon has possessed 7 out of 10 people. Two of those die. Now the Demon has 5 out of 8 people. The percentage changes, but the number of people the Demon still needs to possess to win does not. For Jackstick to claim otherwise (that the Demon has been weakened) means that he knows something we don't. I'm starting to think that maybe the Demon gets more abilities with the more people that are possessed or something, because otherwise, I really can't think of a reason to kill someone who's possessed. If the Demon needs 3 more people to win and you kill someone he already has, s/he still only needs 3 more people and you've just wasted your time.

Landerpurex wrote:

[Lander's recent gigantic post; I don't want to take up a ton of space with it]

THAT makes much more sense. If you're using "it was vague" as an excuse instead of "I didn't read it close enough"--I felt Jackstick's PM to me was vague as well, so I can live with that. (I asked him to clarify and he told me all I needed to know was in my PM. Whatta jerk amirite?) But that makes it suck even more that you haven't been using it and that you don't have readings from Day 1 and Day 2 which could've really helped if you'd already targeted Frisky. Whyyyyy would you throw away free night actions arggggh that is so dumbbbbbb I still think you're dumb for doing that!

That being said, I believe you, and I like your idea of targeting Frisky tonight. One big problem with that though--are you told your detective work was Fuzzy Bunny

and fail to get a result? Or is Jackstick just not going to reply to you when you fail 75% of the time? Because you're pretty useless for executing this plan if that's the case, you know.

I'd also like to get your opinion on this, Lander, since you're so staunchly against Frisky being scummy. In order of votes:

Aragorn Ix - Villager (JoAT)
Dr Henry - Villager (Detective)
Ex Rex - Confirmed Villager
Sayaka - Confirmed Villager
Phantomrose - ???
imasquid - ???

Given Frisky's failed train previously in the game, I expected him to be dead by now. Hell, I expected him to be dead last night. If he's the Demon, the Mafia want him dead. If he's a Villager, the Mafia want him dead (unless he's un-possessed and they're planning for that which is something I thought of just now but let's set that aside.) Where are all the votes on Frisky? Maybe it's because fellow Mafiosos don't want to vote against him? Maybe they started figuring out too late that they should probably be doing something here and that's what Phantomrose and imasquid are doing at the end of the train?

A couple of games ago, Ex Rex made like barely any posts, and it turned out he was Mafia the whole time. I don't want that to happen again so I'm going to go with you on Rat King (but if we near the end of Day 5 and there's still not a frigging lynch for some stupid reason all bets are off because this is stupid, how can a Village expect to win if they don't lynch anyone.)

Topsummoner · **Posted:** March 31st, 2013, 11:28 am

Rat King. Willing to jump on this. Not much to say that hasn't been already said.

Sighence · **Posted:** March 31st, 2013, 11:38 am

I see we're in the boring phase of the game. Gonna be driving the rest of the day so I just want to point out that we're now 75% sure that Penguin isn't a villager and that's more of a certainty than we have on anyone else.

And before you yell at me for not jumping on the train, he's basically dead anyway. This way you're less likely to miss it.

Aragorn Ix · **Posted:** March 31st, 2013, 11:40 am

Sighence wrote:

I see we're in the boring phase of the game. Gonna be driving the rest of the day so I just want to point out that we're now 75% sure that Penguin isn't a villager and that's more of a certainty than we have on anyone else.

And before you yell at me for not jumping on the train, he's basically dead anyway. This way you're less likely to miss it.

What? Since when are we 75% sure?

Saten Ruiko · **Posted:** March 31st, 2013, 12:34 pm

Aragorn Ix wrote:

Sighence wrote:

I see we're in the boring phase of the game. Gonna be driving the rest of the day so I just want to point out that we're now 75% sure that Penguin isn't a villager and that's more of a certainty than we have on anyone else.

And before you yell at me for not jumping on the train, he's basically dead anyway. This way you're less likely to miss it.

What? Since when are we 75% sure?

We're not. Penguin is a Villager. Monk just didn't read Lander's Day 5 posts, apparently.

(Also, the part where the most information comes out is the "boring" part, huh?)

PenguinGuy · **Posted:** March 31st, 2013, 12:50 pm

Sighence wrote:

I see we're in the boring phase of the game. Gonna be driving the rest of the day so I just want to point out that we're now 75% sure that Penguin isn't a villager and that's more of a certainty than we have on anyone else.

And before you yell at me for not jumping on the train, he's basically dead anyway. This way you're less likely to miss it.

I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you skimmed the topic before leaving and didn't notice that Lander misinterpreted his role. He get no reading 75% of the time, as opposed to an incorrect reading. When he does get a reading, it is correct. So assuming you believe Lander, it's a 100% chance I'm what he says I am.

~~~~~~~~

As for the Rat King lynch, right now I'm apprehensive. The only dirt against him is his inactivity. We have Phantomrose and Imasquid who have been hopping on every train. We've also got Bluecoat for the reasons I stated yesterday (and still believe) and Monk is in no way cleared by his attack, and could just as easily be mafia. We have I was unavailable for the beginning of this day so even though I don't exactly agree with this lynch (I never like lynching inactives), given the town's ability to finish a lynch, it seems we either lynch Rat King or nobody.

Dr Henry · **Posted:** March 31st, 2013, 1:08 pm

FriskyAlpaca wrote:

I am telling you the numbers stay relatively the same. I am a villager, and if Rat is too, then if you die tonight. The demon may either turn a villager, kill a villager or kill a mafia.

So it is either 9 villagers, 2-3 mafia, 1 possessed, and 1 demon
9 v, 1-2 m, 1p, 1d
10v, 2-3m, 2p, 1d
There are a couple other variations but these are the most likely given that someone will most likely take out Henry tonight. Just depends on if the demons wants to regain some control of the town.

I think that you are being pretty stupid to think that there are that few possessed people at this stage of the game. Either that, or you are the demon trying to throw us and make us think we have more time than really do.

Penguin just made a very good point about phantom and squid jumping on every train so far, which is pretty scummy, yet they haven't finished off frisky when he was wide open to a hammer... I really hoping that we could uncover the mafia by a hammer vote.

Kind of thinking that rat king is an easy target for mafia to push us to still, which is worrying me.

Thinking of exploring bluecoat as the demon now

FriskyAlpaca · **Posted:** March 31st, 2013, 1:45 pm

There are 18 players. There is either 4 or 5 mafia, right? Lets go on the high side to be safe. That leaves us with 13 people. 1 is the demon, so 12. We have 4 people who have been confirmed as possessed. 3 of which we know started the game possessed. Market is an unknown. Did he start the game possessed or was he converted night two? From the text we know the demon attacked night 1 and 4. The demon was frozen night two like the rest of us. That means night two he most likely possessed someone. I am assuming here he must choose to either control or kill each night.
So of the 12 "villagers", 3-4 were/are possessed depending on if Market came preconverted or not. For balance sake the numbers make sense. If to start the demon got 3/12 possible villagers that is 25% control.

FriskyAlpaca · **Posted:** March 31st, 2013, 1:46 pm

Sorry Frozen night 3, not night 2. Apologies.

Aragorn Ix · **Posted:** March 31st, 2013, 1:49 pm

Alright I'm not convinced about anyone anymore, so Rat is as good as anyone.

Dr Henry · **Posted:** March 31st, 2013, 3:28 pm

FriskyAlpaca wrote:

There are 18 players. There is either 4 or 5 mafia, right? Lets go on the high side to be safe. That leaves us with 13 people. 1 is the demon, so 12. We have 4 people who have been confirmed as possessed. 3 of which we know started the game possessed. Market is an unknown. Did he start the game possessed or was he converted night two? From the text we know the demon attacked night 1 and 4. The demon was frozen night two like the rest of us. That means night two he most likely possessed someone. I am assuming here he must choose to either control or kill each night.
So of the 12 "villagers", 3-4 were/are possessed depending on if Market came preconverted or not. For balance sake the numbers make sense. If to start the demon got 3/12 possible villagers that is 25% control.

Stop throwing numbers around acting as if you are helping. We should be trying to lynch the demon and mafia.

Your actions just scream mafia in any normal game...

Landerpurex · **Posted:** March 31st, 2013, 6:33 pm

doc henry wrote:

Lander, Monk was attacked by cult not Demon. It failed, he could be anything

We are so far into the game that I'm willing to go back and test the theory that he survived because he is demon or mafia, causing the fail.

Unfortunately, I no longer trust lander since his claim and worry that he may be a snake in the grass and clearing penguin, one of my heavy suspects, doesn't sit right

yup.

I wrote:

We should all entertain the idea that the demon may have more powers than we are immediately seeing, and we should ALSO entertain the idea that the mafia may have a role investigator (cba to find out the actual role name).

Jaron wrote:

I'd also like to get your opinion on this, Lander, since you're so staunchly against Frisky being scummy. In order of votes:

Aragorn Ix - Villager (JoAT)
Dr Henry - Villager (Detective)
Ex Rex - Confirmed Villager
Sayaka - Confirmed Villager
Phantomrose - ???
imasquid - ???

Given Frisky's failed train previously in the game, I expected him to be dead by now. Hell, I expected him to be dead last night. If he's the Demon, the Mafia want him dead. If he's a Villager, the Mafia want him dead (unless he's un-possessed and they're planning for that which is something I thought of just now but let's set that aside.) Where are all the votes on Frisky? Maybe it's because fellow Mafiosos don't want to vote against him? Maybe they started figuring out too late that they should probably be doing something here and that's what Phantomrose and imasquid are doing at the end of the train?

I would never say he isn't or hasn't been acting scummy. I am saying I don't exactly want to test his role via lynch. It would be beyond dumb if we lynched him and he is the commuter. The guy is playing like garbage, I'll be the first to admit it, but he's active and he seems to be trying, at least. He reminds me of riptide, except...different.

The million dollar question is why haven't the votes happened for him. This could be for one of two reasons: people are afraid he is the commuter, and a powerful weapon for us because the only way he can die is to be lynched. Reason two could be that he is mafia. But REASON THREE is that the mafia absolutely wants him to live if he is a townie because he is going to draw a lot of heat and create a distraction for the rest of the game.

PenguinGuy wrote:

As for the Rat King lynch, right now I'm apprehensive. The only dirt against him is his inactivity. We have Phantomrose and Imasquid who have been hopping on every train. We've also got Bluecoat for the reasons I stated yesterday (and still believe) and Monk is in no way cleared by his attack, and could just as easily be mafia. We have I was unavailable for the beginning of this day so even though I don't exactly agree with this lynch (I never like lynching inactives), given the town's ability to finish a lynch, it seems we either lynch Rat King or nobody.

You're lucky you're a townie because this is absolute nonsense, considering you've said the complete opposite this very game. Don't make me look for it, but I will. I recall you saying something about lynching inactives for the sake of the metagame, which I agree with to a point. When it's this late in the game, dead weight is just that: dead weight.

Mafia - Day 12: Knockin' on Heaven's Door (DEMONIC WINS)

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