Mafia -- And that's the ballgame. Mafia win.

PenguinGuy · **Posted:** January 28th, 2013, 1:43 am

Dr Henry wrote:

I didn't do half of that crap.

Correct. You did all of it.

PenguinGuy wrote:

he repeated the logical falacy that both dead mafia commited, speaking in ultimatums, using "either or" logic to turn a grey situation black and white.

Dr Henry wrote:

1) I was accused of being mafia for zero reason on day two, so obviously would be pretty much forced into siding with godders and Kik, not denying that. Out of the two, I saw sayaka, a guy accusing me of being mafia when I know im not, as the more likely scum.

This is the ultimatum, saying you had only one choice of action, to OMGUS Sayaka.

Dr Henry wrote:

3) What do you expect me to say during a 'soft vote'? The detective makes it odseem like he is mafia, what options are there for ANYONE, town or mafia? Either defend someone looking scummy and condemn yourself even if you feel he is vanilla and just get it wrong. Or don't vote and get called up for that, or vote because you see this new evidence, realise you may have been wrong and have nothing more to add.

This is the "either or" fallacy, saying you could either defend Kikori, not vote, or attack Kikori, with no other options.

PenguinGuy wrote:

He is still trying to distance himself from the two now dead Mafia members, by saying the conflict, in which he sided with them and defended Kikori, did not involve him, and was only Kikori Lander vs Sayaka Topsummoner.

You admit to doing that in your latest post, and as for defending Kikori:

Dr Henry wrote:

I am inclined to agree with Kikori at the moment, having played enough games with him to know his awkward playstyle. At present, I have not seen a mafia tell.

Yes, you did do all that.

Aragorn Ix · **Posted:** January 28th, 2013, 5:03 am

Of all who are left Henry seems most likely mafia member to me. Sayaka has been pretty accurate so far so I'm willing to trust his insight.

Dr Henry · **Posted:** January 28th, 2013, 5:07 am

PenguinGuy wrote:

Dr Henry wrote:

I didn't do half of that crap.

Correct. You did all of it.

PenguinGuy wrote:

he repeated the logical falacy that both dead mafia commited, speaking in ultimatums, using "either or" logic to turn a grey situation black and white.

Dr Henry wrote:

1) I was accused of being mafia for zero reason on day two, so obviously would be pretty much forced into siding with godders and Kik, not denying that. Out of the two, I saw sayaka, a guy accusing me of being mafia when I know im not, as the more likely scum.

This is the ultimatum, saying you had only one choice of action, to OMGUS Sayaka.

Dr Henry wrote:

3) What do you expect me to say during a 'soft vote'? The detective makes it odseem like he is mafia, what options are there for ANYONE, town or mafia? Either defend someone looking scummy and condemn yourself even if you feel he is vanilla and just get it wrong. Or don't vote and get called up for that, or vote because you see this new evidence, realise you may have been wrong and have nothing more to add.

This is the "either or" fallacy, saying you could either defend Kikori, not vote, or attack Kikori, with no other options.

PenguinGuy wrote:

He is still trying to distance himself from the two now dead Mafia members, by saying the conflict, in which he sided with them and defended Kikori, did not involve him, and was only Kikori Lander vs Sayaka Topsummoner.

You admit to doing that in your latest post, and as for defending Kikori:

Dr Henry wrote:

I am inclined to agree with Kikori at the moment, having played enough games with him to know his awkward playstyle. At present, I have not seen a mafia tell.

Yes, you did do all that.

Can't be bothered to separate the quotes for me replies... so I'll just number them.

1) No, I did not do all of them :roll:

2) That isn't an ultimatum. That is me thinking that someone who would randomly pick 3 names and list them as mafia, whilst knowing that I am villager, has something off with them. This wasn't an OMGUS vote because he thought I was mafia and was acting villager, this was a vote because I know I am a villager, yet he was labelling me and two others as scum on Day Two without evidence. Something as dramatic as that set my alarm bells ringing.

@Sayaka in conjunction with the above point - yes, you are right, my phrasing was wrong in that instance. You and Kikori being mafia at once is perfectly plausable. The reason I have not voted for you today is because frankly you have been difficult for me to judge this game and don't want to get it wrong. I am getting concerned with the fact that the mafia haven't bothered killing you off yet when the three you labelled are apparently the 3 most mafia like.

3) Well what other options were there? My playstyle has always involved listing possible options and then picking one, so to say that it makes me a mafia is absurd.

4) Defending kikori... or making one sentence saying that I think he isn't mafia (which I was wrong about) and Sayaka is, at that point in the game. WOW big defence.

Bet Aragorn Ix is laughing right now. Yes, I have now placed a vote. I have played with Aragorn a lot and recognise his mafia playstyle. He is smart enough to pick his kills, yet gets away with making very little contribution to the actual topic constantly. I can already see him coming along and 'sheeping' a vote on me, and Godders or Ex Rex doing the same because PG and Sayaka are idiots, but when I flip town this is where I hope you go tomorrow. If there were more people left it would be okay but four votes to lynch are easily done by inactives, and Paidea is also already set in his beliefs. One of these days people may actually stop lynching off villagers :facepalm:

Dr Henry · **Posted:** January 28th, 2013, 5:08 am

Oh wow, speak of the devil and he does exactly what I thought he would. It would be funny if it didn't mean that you were about to lynch a villager.

Aragorn Ix · **Posted:** January 28th, 2013, 9:10 am

Dr Henry wrote:

Oh wow, speak of the devil and he does exactly what I thought he would. It would be funny if it didn't mean that you were about to lynch a villager.

Interesting you say that's my mafia playstyle, when I have rarely ever placed a vote as a mafia member (I think I've placed 3/4 this game). If you flip town then it's regrettable but everything I've read of you so far has made me feel you're mafia. I'm also not sure how you can brand Sayaka an idiot when he's been correct about the majority of his calls...

Dr Henry · **Posted:** January 28th, 2013, 11:04 am

Aragorn Ix wrote:

Dr Henry wrote:

Oh wow, speak of the devil and he does exactly what I thought he would. It would be funny if it didn't mean that you were about to lynch a villager.

Interesting you say that's my mafia playstyle, when I have rarely ever placed a vote as a mafia member (I think I've placed 3/4 this game). If you flip town then it's regrettable but everything I've read of you so far has made me feel you're mafia. I'm also not sure how you can brand Sayaka an idiot when he's been correct about the majority of his calls...

I can call him an idiot because I know he is wrong. You rarely place votes as it is, but placing 3/4 votes this game means nothing, as Kikori and Lander could have easily told you to vote for them, and now you haven't got their guidance you are sticking me on 3/4 votes. Not the hammer, just a sheep.

So how exactly do you feel I am a mafia without reading the reasons from other people?

Aragorn Ix · **Posted:** January 28th, 2013, 11:08 am

Dr Henry wrote:

Aragorn Ix wrote:

Dr Henry wrote:

Oh wow, speak of the devil and he does exactly what I thought he would. It would be funny if it didn't mean that you were about to lynch a villager.

Interesting you say that's my mafia playstyle, when I have rarely ever placed a vote as a mafia member (I think I've placed 3/4 this game). If you flip town then it's regrettable but everything I've read of you so far has made me feel you're mafia. I'm also not sure how you can brand Sayaka an idiot when he's been correct about the majority of his calls...

I can call him an idiot because I know he is wrong. You rarely place votes as it is, but placing 3/4 votes this game means nothing, as Kikori and Lander could have easily told you to vote for them, and now you haven't got their guidance you are sticking me on 3/4 votes. Not the hammer, just a sheep.

So how exactly do you feel I am a mafia without reading the reasons from other people?

I have read the reasons from other people, I just said that: "from what I've read of you so far."

Dr Henry · **Posted:** January 28th, 2013, 12:50 pm

So not even your own opinion.

When I flip villager, look at Aragorn.

Aragorn Ix · **Posted:** January 28th, 2013, 1:55 pm

That includes my opinion.

Ex Rex · **Posted:** January 28th, 2013, 3:41 pm

Henry for completely unoriginal reasons. Baa.
(valid points have been made, I agree with the logic behind them.)

Godders · **Posted:** January 28th, 2013, 3:50 pm

I think Dr Henry's attack on Aragorn Ix with not great reasoning, in the realisation that his death is imminent seems Mafia.

Dr Henry · **Posted:** January 28th, 2013, 6:30 pm

You three are really just falling for a load of rubbish. Go on Frank, tell them the truth.

If you Miller me I will end you.

Frank 4.0.1 · **Posted:** January 28th, 2013, 6:38 pm

DAY SIX ENDS

"You'll live to regret this" screamed Doc Henry in his waning moments of existence! "I'm a villager, not a mafioso!" Of course no amount of pleas would work... The village had spoken and Doc Henry's blood was to be shed. And so the deed was done. Searching his home lead to nothing of interest to note... But just as the collective was leaving Doc's humble abode a UPS Man came up and left a collection of armaments at Doc's house and hassled the crowd for a COD. Brass Knuckles, Bazookas, what the hell would any Villager need a bazooka for? Everyone concluded that Doc Henry was probably Mafia.

Doc Henry, Dead, Mafia.

NIGHT SIX GO

Frank 4.0.1 · **Posted:** January 29th, 2013, 7:55 am

NIGHT SIX ENDS

Another day, another trip to the communal hot tub. All make the trip except for Paidea... He was not so lucky last night. When the village seen what the mafia did with poor Paidea they were nauseated... The mafia are clearly inhumane slime. Just another reason to get rid of them, other then their lives depends on it obviously.

Paidea, Dead, Villager.

DAY SEVEN IS GO.

Godders · **Posted:** January 29th, 2013, 10:06 am

So we have 1 Mafia (Maybe 2), 1 Doctor, 2 Villagers and 1 Miller (maybe 0) left.

I think that the Miller is still in the game, and that Dr Henry was infact Mafia, and him saying:

Dr Henry wrote:

If you Miller me I will end you.

Was a poor attempt at saying there is 2 Mafia left in the game and that he is the Miller, when in reality its more likely there is just a miller and mafia member left.

Saten Ruiko · **Posted:** January 29th, 2013, 8:41 pm

Dr Henry wrote:

You three are really just falling for a load of rubbish. Go on Frank, tell them the truth.

If you Miller me I will end you.

This is the absolute fakest "gonna try to get you guys to think I am the Miller" post of all time. Of all time.

With that being said, I can't entirely tell if he was actually trying to get us to think he's the Miller and lynch Aragorn, or if he was trying to pull a fast one and be overly fake on purpose so that we avoid Aragorn because they were both Mafia. It's hard to tell, especially because Paidea seemed to be of the opinion Aragorn was Mafia.

Anyway! We have five players left! Penguin, Sayaka, Godders, Aragorn Ix, and Ex Rex. Here are my opinions:

PenguinGuy - I've said from the beginning I felt Penguin was a Villager, and with everything he's done I've even more sure of it. I won't be voting for PenguinGuy. (Frankly, my opinion is that if PenguinGuy were actually Mafia, he's done a DANG good job and totally deserves to win anyway.)

Sayaka - This is me; I can't vote for myself. I think "I know I'm a Villager" statements are kinda dumb because Mafiosos tend to use them more than Villagers (what's up with that) so I won't actually say it.

Ex Rex - I'm rather concerned by your hammer vote yesterday because you've done zero useful things so far this game. The only thing I have to go on really is that Lander tried voting for you claiming you were inactive, which is true. If we assume it was to draw attention away from himself (61% chance maybe?) then you're a Villager. If it was to attempt to riskily save you with his dying breath (39% I guess by process of MATH) then that's...also a thing that could happen? But I'm not sure enough to vote on that.

Aragorn Ix - I also thought Aragorn was a Villager early in Day 2 based on some of the things he had said up to that point. Nothing he's done has been critical enough to sway me in the other direction. Paidea was suspicious and given that he was proven a Villager I think I should take him at his word. The top 3 of his 4 also turned up Mafia, with Aragorn being the 4th, so that's something as well.

Godders - I know you've been on the lynch trains of all three Mafia killed thus far but you still seem scummy to me. When Paidea announced his thoughts and voted for kikori you replied but did nothing. As soon as Top seconded the vote you jumped right on, but not before. On the Landerpurex train you said you were half an hour late for school and your vote was the result of "skimming the topic". But then you made a post again a few minutes later (why...didn't you leave for school?) calling attention to that it was close to someone hammering. On Day 6's start you ask "How is Paidea still alive?" much in the same way Dr Henry asked how I was still alive, which I usually take as Mafia strategy. The whole conversation between you and Dr Henry on Day 6 give me the vibe that if he's Mafia, you're Mafia. You were the fifth out of seven votes on Henry, meaning it was pointless but you threw your name on there anyway.

There's a couple ways this could all go, obviously. The danger is that if there are two Mafia left somehow then if they're in sync and someone votes for a Villager, they could double-hammer and win. I think all three of the people we've lynched thus far are true Mafia though, so I'm not overly worried about that. The problem is I don't know who to vote for anymore. If I ignore Ex Rex I figure we could lynch both Godders and Aragorn and still win. (If there are two Mafia left then one them the two is one of them and this whole game depends on who gets lynched first.)

They both seem to be playing pretty well so I'm going to wait to vote until after PenguinGuy posts. I trust your judgement, Penguin, so I'm interested in what your thoughts are on all this.

Aragorn Ix · **Posted:** January 29th, 2013, 9:25 pm

Sayaka wrote:

Dr Henry wrote:

You three are really just falling for a load of rubbish. Go on Frank, tell them the truth.

If you Miller me I will end you.

This is the absolute fakest "gonna try to get you guys to think I am the Miller" post of all time. Of all time.

With that being said, I can't entirely tell if he was actually trying to get us to think he's the Miller and lynch Aragorn, or if he was trying to pull a fast one and be overly fake on purpose so that we avoid Aragorn because they were both Mafia. It's hard to tell, especially because Paidea seemed to be of the opinion Aragorn was Mafia.

Anyway! We have five players left! Penguin, Sayaka, Godders, Aragorn Ix, and Ex Rex. Here are my opinions:

PenguinGuy - I've said from the beginning I felt Penguin was a Villager, and with everything he's done I've even more sure of it. I won't be voting for PenguinGuy. (Frankly, my opinion is that if PenguinGuy were actually Mafia, he's done a DANG good job and totally deserves to win anyway.)

Sayaka - This is me; I can't vote for myself. I think "I know I'm a Villager" statements are kinda dumb because Mafiosos tend to use them more than Villagers (what's up with that) so I won't actually say it.

Ex Rex - I'm rather concerned by your hammer vote yesterday because you've done zero useful things so far this game. The only thing I have to go on really is that Lander tried voting for you claiming you were inactive, which is true. If we assume it was to draw attention away from himself (61% chance maybe?) then you're a Villager. If it was to attempt to riskily save you with his dying breath (39% I guess by process of MATH) then that's...also a thing that could happen? But I'm not sure enough to vote on that.

Aragorn Ix - I also thought Aragorn was a Villager early in Day 2 based on some of the things he had said up to that point. Nothing he's done has been critical enough to sway me in the other direction. Paidea was suspicious and given that he was proven a Villager I think I should take him at his word. The top 3 of his 4 also turned up Mafia, with Aragorn being the 4th, so that's something as well.

Godders - I know you've been on the lynch trains of all three Mafia killed thus far but you still seem scummy to me. When Paidea announced his thoughts and voted for kikori you replied but did nothing. As soon as Top seconded the vote you jumped right on, but not before. On the Landerpurex train you said you were half an hour late for school and your vote was the result of "skimming the topic". But then you made a post again a few minutes later (why...didn't you leave for school?) calling attention to that it was close to someone hammering. On Day 6's start you ask "How is Paidea still alive?" much in the same way Dr Henry asked how I was still alive, which I usually take as Mafia strategy. The whole conversation between you and Dr Henry on Day 6 give me the vibe that if he's Mafia, you're Mafia. You were the fifth out of seven votes on Henry, meaning it was pointless but you threw your name on there anyway.

There's a couple ways this could all go, obviously. The danger is that if there are two Mafia left somehow then if they're in sync and someone votes for a Villager, they could double-hammer and win. I think all three of the people we've lynched thus far are true Mafia though, so I'm not overly worried about that. The problem is I don't know who to vote for anymore. If I ignore Ex Rex I figure we could lynch both Godders and Aragorn and still win. (If there are two Mafia left then one them the two is one of them and this whole game depends on who gets lynched first.)

They both seem to be playing pretty well so I'm going to wait to vote until after PenguinGuy posts. I trust your judgement, Penguin, so I'm interested in what your thoughts are on all this.

I've followed your logic thus far and don't think you or PenguinGuy are mafia. Paidea has been mostly right (excl. me) and so for me it's Godders and Ex that are most likely mafia (no point commenting on myself). Based on contribution I'm going with Ex.

PenguinGuy · **Posted:** January 29th, 2013, 9:33 pm

There are five of us five of us, myself, Sayaka, Ex Rex, Aragorn, and Godders.

PenguinGuy: I think PenguinGuy is the last mafia. I know, because I saw him doing metagame stuff.

Sayaka: Although at first I was stunned D2 by your crazy antics, and thought you were crazy and/or mafia. But with Kikori mafia, and with Henry mafia as well, I doubt that you are a WIFOM mastermind who sacrificed two team-mates and bussed a third in a grand strategy.

Ex Rex: Quiet and not really contributing much, but when are you. This is how how you acted last game, where you were village, and in games before if I recall correctly. Lander tried to shift the blame to you in a desperate attempt to stop his own lynch. I am inclined to believe that can be taken at face value, but he may have been trying to clear you via WIFOM. I don't believe you are mafia today, but if this game lasts to tomorrow you are still a suspect.

Aragorn: You have been quiet and generally trying to stay under the radar, posting at least once a day, with some sort of insight. I have seen you act this way in games before, both as mafia trying to hide, but also as villager. I am indecisive on which today, and it doesn't help that Paidea is dead, who picked you as next in line for scum after Dr Henry, and he's been killed.

Godders: Loud, and completely uninsightful. This whole game you have stated the obvious, and provided nothing of substance, certainly nothing to implicate yourself. You jumped on all the trains, sheeping along. You've been trying to appear active, not to be labeled "inactive" but contributed nothing that would implicate yourself, making sure to go with all the popular opinions. I believe you are most likely to be mafia.

Sayaka wrote:

There's a couple ways this could all go, obviously. The danger is that if there are two Mafia left somehow then if they're in sync and someone votes for a Villager, they could double-hammer and win. I think all three of the people we've lynched thus far are true Mafia though, so I'm not overly worried about that. The problem is I don't know who to vote for anymore. If I ignore Ex Rex I figure we could lynch both Godders and Aragorn and still win. (If there are two Mafia left then one them the two is one of them and this whole game depends on who gets lynched first.)

I agree with this, probably one mafia left, but we should probably act as if there was two. Careful with votes, for fear of a swift double-hammer. Godders is who I see as mafia, and probably who we should lynch today. If we mess up but are fortunate, we get a retry tomorrow.

Godders, I beleive you mafia, but am giving you time to respond.

Ex Rex · **Posted:** January 29th, 2013, 10:53 pm

As far as I'm concerned, Godders is the most likely last remaining mafia. His unnecessary vote on Henry after he was already dead reeks of an attempt to make himself seem more town by "killing" a fellow mafia member.

Godders · **Posted:** January 30th, 2013, 2:31 am

Im not Mafia, im the biggest, fluffiest sheep there has ever been. But would it be helpful to the village if i were to be killed now, or would it end in a LYLO situation?

As it goes though i do think Aragorn is mostly likely to be Mafia, because when he's village he is usually really active, but as Mafia he is a lot less active (not inactive).

As for everything that has been said about me sticking with popular vote etc, i just wanna survive to the end, i havent done that in like 5 or 6 mafia games.

Mafia -- And that's the ballgame. Mafia win.

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