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 Post subject: Re: Upick Rising - FIRST BLOOD (Day 4)
PostPosted: April 14th, 2014, 9:24 am 
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Oops re read the list. I don't think Ape is mafia.


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 Post subject: Re: Upick Rising - FIRST BLOOD (Day 4)
PostPosted: April 14th, 2014, 9:26 am 
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Tennis Ace wrote:
The first thing I'm going to say is, and this may be a little narcissistic, but I sincerely believe the three people who came to my defense at the end of the day yesterday (Kikori, Spiro, and Lander) all to be villagers. I was already on the villager train for Kikori and Lander and didn't have a strong opinion about Spiro's alignment before that. I just don't think that it's something that a Mafioso would do; would be easier to jump on the lynch train.


You're right, it does sound a tad narcissistic clearing people just because they defended you.

Your final comment seems contradictory. If it was easier for the mafia to jump on the lynch train, then why weren't you lynched? You had 3 votes with a required 7 iirc. Why didn't I, one of your primary suspects, help lynch you? I would think it easy enough for me to get away with helping lynch you if it were in my best interests, even factoring in your voiced suspicion of me.

Tennis Ace wrote:
Now I'd like to go back to a post I made on Day 2, where I made my claim that "Aragorn is 100% villager to me." I still believe this, but I think this would be a good time for someone to come forth about his N1 Survival if it could help the rest of the town.


Based on what happened on Night 1 - 3, it seems pretty obvious to me that Aragorn is villager.

Tennis Ace wrote:
Additionally, the rest of my post on Day 2 accused Muscular Ape of being a Mafia, and I also said, "And if that assumption is correct, it also presumes that Jaron is Village and that Ape is just trying to deflect attention to him." Well. Now Jaron's dead, so I just want to draw attention back to this. I think we should analyze Ape's post.


This line of thought is illogical. Firstly, I was suspect of Jaron and I was wrong; fair enough. I was not the only one. Secondly, Jaron being villager provides little evidence for my alignment in either direction. In every phase you have mafia sneakily trying to lynch townspeople but you also have townspeople unknowingly trying to lynch townspeople. The latter being more common, too.

Analyse away, though.

Tennis Ace wrote:
Looking at who voted against me yesterday: Dr Henry, Sparky, and Jaron. I believe *at least* one of Dr Henry and Sparky to be a member of the Mafia. I originally suspected Sparky more, but Dr Henry seems to be playing way too sporadically.


This comment reminds me of a player on the other forum I play mafia. Whoever is with me is town, whoever is against me is mafia. Heh, normally this would make me immediately think scum, alas I am inclined to believe Monk's roleclaim that he is the Detective whose sanity is in tact. So the safe assumption is misguided townie.

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 Post subject: Re: Upick Rising - FIRST BLOOD (Day 4)
PostPosted: April 14th, 2014, 9:39 am 
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Ape, you're right.

And that's why I need to be clear that I am coming at this solely from my perspective, under the assumption that I am a Villager. If you put yourself in my shoes (assuming I'm a Villager - and yes I'm aware that you can't *know* that I am one, but it's really the only way to pick apart my post).

The reason I said that it was easier for the Mafia to jump on my lynch train rather than my defense train was because there were, what, four posts in a row ganging up on me? I should have said it would have been easier to say nothing as a Mafia member. Just let people build the suspicion on Tennis Ace. The fact that they came out and said that it doesn't make sense makes me think, again as a presumed Townie, that only another Townie would do that. I was already somewhat convinced that Kikori and Lander are Townies themselves as I said earlier, so it was more of a confirmation for those two. If Spiro had posted third rather than second, I would have been more wary that it was just someone joining in at the last minute to agree, but his emphasis of what Kikori said really resonated with me.

And with the whole Sparky vs. Dr Henry thing, you saw my list of who I suspect. The majority of the people I haven't deemed Townies HAVE to be Mafia members. And yes, two of them DID vote against me. I'm not just picking them because of that though. Tons of people got votes last round. It's pretty obvious that the Mafia split their votes. Since I had multiple votes, I'm assuming at least one of the Mafia members put a vote on me.

Ape, I have nothing concrete against you at this point. Thus far, I have just felt your posts haven't seem very genuine. Again, gut instinct, no proof, etc. This is why I voted against bluecoat this round instead of you.

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 Post subject: Re: Upick Rising - FIRST BLOOD (Day 4)
PostPosted: April 14th, 2014, 9:48 am 
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And posts just like the one you made, Ape, are why I have been, and still am, wary of you.

You literally went through every single paragraph of a post I made trying to prove me wrong. It's so strange to me because looking at my post, it seems... logical? Like, it all makes sense to me at least.

I imagine that such a defensive rebuttal is likely because of the singular paragraph where I said we should analyze your posts more thoroughly because I am suspicious of you. I think it makes sense though! My suspicions literally back up a post I made up on Day 2, so I wanted to bring it back up, so it didn't get lost in the newer pages. You've ignored other peoples' posts where your name hasn't been included, but you addressed my entire post basically trying to tell me that I am wrong about every single thing.

And then you go on to say that you believe Sighence as detective and that I am a Villager. So I'm that misguided then? I don't buy it.

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 Post subject: Re: Upick Rising - FIRST BLOOD (Day 4)
PostPosted: April 14th, 2014, 10:46 am 
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Tennis Ace wrote:
Since I had multiple votes, I'm assuming at least one of the Mafia members put a vote on me.


That assumption is worrying. The number of votes you had means that, unless the mafia are incredibly stupid, not everyone voting for you is a mafia. That means that there were villagers voting for you. Proof that villagers can make mistakes.

What's to say that four villagers didn't make a mistake? Now I'm not saying that there isn't a chance that there was one, or more, mafia on that list. I just dislike you once again jumping to conclusions (as you did when you said that Aragorn was 100% villager). That sort of logic won't win us the game. It is what can lead to mislynches and the mafia winning.

It is also why I am wary of Ape right now. Based off Thr's posting yesterday, it was clear to me that Ape was against Jaron. Therefore, if Ape is mafia, killing Jaron (who in my mind posed no 'threat' back to Ape if he were mafia) would be a poor decision on their behalf. Obviously the 1/3 kill success shows that they aren't exactly playing well, but I have to question whether they would really set up such a WIFOM position against their own members, or if this is a set-up.

Now yesterday I was foolish enough to be swayed by Sparkys argument against Tennis Ace. Proof again that villagers can make mistakes. I am inclined to believe that Sighence is the detective, so my only issue with Tennis is that he is closing his mind off too much to other possibilities which could be an issue.

So in that situation, Tennis is a villager, Sparky was quite persuasive in his argument against him. To me, it comes across as the final nail in the coffin, having initially felt that he was mafia yesterday, and voted for him over the past two days.

I still don't fully believe Tennis' roleclaim though. Care to explain the 'mole' comment? Everybody else has forgotten it.

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 Post subject: Re: Upick Rising - FIRST BLOOD (Day 4)
PostPosted: April 14th, 2014, 11:15 am 
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I probably am jumping to too many conclusions. The last two games (and only two Mafia games I've ever played), I was a Mafia, so I've never been a Townie before (sorry if that is meta-gaming).

My Mole comment was me having fun based on this. Everyone should watch the show. It's phenomenal:

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 Post subject: Re: Upick Rising - FIRST BLOOD (Day 4)
PostPosted: April 14th, 2014, 11:21 am 
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Tennis Ace wrote:
I probably am jumping to too many conclusions. The last two games (and only two Mafia games I've ever played), I was a Mafia, so I've never been a Townie before (sorry if that is meta-gaming).

My Mole comment was me having fun based on this. Everyone should watch the show. It's phenomenal:


Right... you realise that if you had died last night, the last thing you had said to us was that there was a mole. We could easily have been so distracted by that comment that it costs us the game.

You having fun =/= helping the town.

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 Post subject: Re: Upick Rising - FIRST BLOOD (Day 4)
PostPosted: April 14th, 2014, 12:00 pm 
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Eh, you had a bit of context when I posted a season 2 clip; I wouldn't have let his comment get that far if it happened.

Also he's totally right, everyone go watch that show. The US seasons are amazing, the UK ones aren't bad, and the AUS ones are... all over the board. Heck, subtitled Dutch versions are on Youtube too, but those are harder to enjoy.


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 Post subject: Re: Upick Rising - FIRST BLOOD (Day 4)
PostPosted: April 14th, 2014, 12:11 pm 
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From what I am used to, the person who posts the most defensively is normally a townie. After all that has happened I firmly believe that Tennis Ace is not mafia. But I never really thought he was in the first place. I just figured if Dr Henry could vote for me for not having a "strong enough post count", then I could vote for someone who was being KINDA hypocritical in my direction.

Henry said he was foolish enough to be swayed by my argument against Tennis, but my vote was just purely a OMGUS vote, and was not a train starting thing for people to even be swayed by. Also the fact that Dr Henry was the one voting for me at the time, not Tennis, and that he was only "swayed" at the end of the day when there would be no chance of it affecting Tennis, gives me today's vote.

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 Post subject: Re: Upick Rising - FIRST BLOOD (Day 4)
PostPosted: April 14th, 2014, 12:13 pm 
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I would like to state we should probably start a lynch. I mean its day four, and we have some prime subjects... I'm already voting for Riptide, but I would change it for one of the other people I suspect. We need to rid the mafia from the town, and get Ghost Busters 2 back.


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 Post subject: Re: Upick Rising - FIRST BLOOD (Day 4)
PostPosted: April 14th, 2014, 12:50 pm 
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Tennis raises some good points, but I'm also inclined to go Sparky over Henry. Thr, I will come back to you, although your baseless acusation of me really makes me want to keep voting for you even further. Still, it's more beneficial to try for mafiosos rather than 3rd party. Which has already been stated.

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 Post subject: Re: Upick Rising - FIRST BLOOD (Day 4)
PostPosted: April 14th, 2014, 1:02 pm 
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I tallied the post count for the first 3 days. This wavers my thought on Aragorn, because they probably tried to attack him for the most posts day 1. I'm removing him from my mafia list, but I''m still not 100% sure he's town. Use the information as you like. I didn't double count because it took me forever to record the post counts for 3 days, but I was careful when counting.

Day 1. Day 2. Day 3.

1. Spirographed 3 1 1
2. Aragorn Ix 4 10 10
3. Sighence 3 3 3
4. Muscular Ape 2 4 4
5. Tennis Ace 2 3 3
6. Dr Henry 2 8 8
7. Thr 3 6 6
8. SparkyAMS 1 1 1
9. Landerpurex 3 2 2
10. Riptide 3 4 4
11. Jaron 3 4 4
12. Kikori 2 8 8
13. Bluecoat 2 4 4


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 Post subject: Re: Upick Rising - FIRST BLOOD (Day 4)
PostPosted: April 14th, 2014, 1:05 pm 
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Sorry for the double post, but i would like to state that my list didn't post as I would have liked. (There was suppose to be a lot more space between the day counts).


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 Post subject: Re: Upick Rising - FIRST BLOOD (Day 4)
PostPosted: April 14th, 2014, 1:14 pm 
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Tennis Ace wrote:
Sheesh, I was just asking a question...

I meant that you said Thr is your second choice of a lynch. I was just operating under the assumption that we have more than one person as Mafia candidates, so I would go after them before someone else. Lynching a third-party player would only increase the overall Mafia fraction, so it seems to me like it would behoove us more to keep third-partiers in the game if we even have an inkling of who could be a Mafia member.


I was just replying, no malice in it. Second most suspicious in my opinion, yes. Thr might have a win condition with the mafia, it's entirely possible. That's a fair point though I'm not 100% on his third party status but I'm convinced he isn't town.

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 Post subject: Re: Upick Rising - FIRST BLOOD (Day 4)
PostPosted: April 14th, 2014, 1:38 pm 
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Thr wrote:
I tallied the post count for the first 3 days. This wavers my thought on Aragorn, because they probably tried to attack him for the most posts day 1. I'm removing him from my mafia list, but I''m still not 100% sure he's town. Use the information as you like. I didn't double count because it took me forever to record the post counts for 3 days, but I was careful when counting.

Day 1. Day 2. Day 3.

1. Spirographed 3 1 1
2. Aragorn Ix 4 10 10
3. Sighence 3 3 3
4. Muscular Ape 2 4 4
5. Tennis Ace 2 3 3
6. Dr Henry 2 8 8
7. Thr 3 6 6
8. SparkyAMS 1 1 1
9. Landerpurex 3 2 2
10. Riptide 3 4 4
11. Jaron 3 4 4
12. Kikori 2 8 8
13. Bluecoat 2 4 4




I just went back and counted my posts, I'm at 17 not 24...

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 Post subject: Re: Upick Rising - FIRST BLOOD (Day 4)
PostPosted: April 14th, 2014, 1:49 pm 
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I can buy that Lander and Tennis are innocent. Guess I have no reason to keep my vote on Sighence. FOR NOW.

As much as I would LIKE to vote for Muscular Ape, who I has come off as far too helpful this game, I did promise you people I would vote on trains I didn't start myself. Sparky, who I can never get a read on. If Thr's post count is to be believed (I'm not double checking it), Sparky's just posting and hiding. I'D PREFER TO WATCH HIM MORE, but you people have forced my hand.

I do insist that everyone vote for Muscular Ape tomorrow though, he's being too damn helpful. Him or Riptide. Hell, if the Sparky train doesn't go anywhere, I'd be willing to switch to Rip. Dunno why, just a gut instinct. Those tend to be pretty decent.

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 Post subject: Re: Upick Rising - FIRST BLOOD (Day 4)
PostPosted: April 14th, 2014, 2:26 pm 
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If I was off that much give me a bit and I will re count


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 Post subject: Re: Upick Rising - FIRST BLOOD (Day 4)
PostPosted: April 14th, 2014, 2:48 pm 
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Tennis Ace wrote:
Sheesh, I was just asking a question...

I meant that you said Thr is your second choice of a lynch. I was just operating under the assumption that we have more than one person as Mafia candidates, so I would go after them before someone else. Lynching a third-party player would only increase the overall Mafia fraction, so it seems to me like it would behoove us more to keep third-partiers in the game if we even have an inkling of who could be a Mafia member.

Third parties side with nobody, mafia or town. They're in their own category; they don't count towards the total number of alive townies or mafia. If anything, they're a nuiscance with their ability unless they can be persuaded to use their ability to either side's advantage.

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Riptide wrote:
I used to get you and J@n mixed up. Except your funnier. And nicer. Happy 21st bro!

Oh man Jan, you just got zinged by Riptide. How much does THAT suck?


Well, statistically speaking, slightly more than a giant suckusaur. A dire one.


PenguinGuy wrote:
Lets see if I remember how to play...

EX REX IS MAFIA SCUM FOURTHVOTER UNVILLAGE BLAH BLAH BLAH SCUM BLAH WINE IN FRONT OF ME BLAH BLAH META GAME BLAH BLAH BLAH SMELLS OF ELDERBERRIES BLAH

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 Post subject: Re: Upick Rising - FIRST BLOOD (Day 4)
PostPosted: April 14th, 2014, 4:35 pm 
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I'm getting on re counting, and I want to slap myself. :facepalm: I cant believe some of the mistakes I made.


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 Post subject: Re: Upick Rising - FIRST BLOOD (Day 4)
PostPosted: April 14th, 2014, 4:53 pm 
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Thr wrote:
I'm getting on re counting, and I want to slap myself. :facepalm: I cant believe some of the mistakes I made.

You are trying so hard to be helpful...instead of arguing against the 3rd Party or Mafia accusations against you...or expounding on your thought that I am mafia. I'm changing my vote back to Thr. He isn't going to help the town in any way when it comes down to it (no matter how hard he tries to seem helpful).

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