Bifurcate Mafia: Game over, Village wins (twice)!

Market Man6 · **Posted:** May 26th, 2012, 3:34 am

top lives!

Dr Henry · **Posted:** May 26th, 2012, 5:34 am

Market Man6 wrote:

top lives!

Well done.

I could really have guessed that Monk would have been killed last night. Mafia would go for the confirmed villagers, guessing that the Doctor would protect Top.

I'll be back in about an hour or so with an actually useful post hopefully. Got my eyes on a few of you.

Dr Henry · **Posted:** May 26th, 2012, 6:31 am

Right, so there are 7 players left, 2 of these are likely to be mafia.

Scar is practically confirmed, and unless Top is false-claiming and there is a real Med Student, or perhaps the role was removed from the game, he is practically confirmed too. I doubt he would have counter-claimed Lander knowing he was mafia, it doesn't make sense...

So, 5 unconfirmed, 2 are mafia. I know that I'm not (although none of you are expected to 100% believe me), so from my perspective, it is a 50/50 chance out of the remaining 4.

Market is being ridiculously unhelpful in his recent posts, ranging from 'LOL' to 'Top survived'. He started this game, IIRC, being aggressive and actively contributing (although it got him lynched) and that was when he was a power role. This change is leading me to suspect that he could be a mafia this time round.

Riptide too, as Scar pointed out, jumped on the Lander train right at the end - quite a scummy move.

I have a gut feeling that one, if not both, of those two are mafia.

Of course, the maths showed that those who were vanilla last Act are more likely to be mafia, but also more likely to be power roles. Since we still have all our power roles, and Lander was a vanilla-turned mafia who I feel pointed out this maths in the first place in what I believe was an attempt to turn suspicion on Tahu and Aragorn (which backfired) - from this I feel that they could be pro-town.

Torn between Market and Riptide for now, but since it is definite that he wont be the Doctor, I'm going to vote for Riptide.

Scar · **Posted:** May 26th, 2012, 8:42 am

I'm going to continue with what I said at the end of yesterday and vote for Riptide as well,, that was easily the most blatent "don't forget my name is on this train too" post I've ever seen.

Riptide · **Posted:** May 26th, 2012, 10:03 am

Scar wrote:

I'm going to continue with what I said at the end of yesterday and vote for Riptide as well,, that was easily the most blatent "don't forget my name is on this train too" post I've ever seen.

My name would've come up later on in the game, on or off of the train. It's better to kill the Mafia than to just sit idly by.

Dr Henry wrote:

Of course, the maths showed that those who were vanilla last Act are more likely to be mafia, but also more likely to be power roles. Since we still have all our power roles, and Lander was a vanilla-turned mafia who I feel pointed out this maths in the first place in what I believe was an attempt to turn suspicion on Tahu and Aragorn (which backfired) - from this I feel that they could be pro-town.

Torn between Market and Riptide for now, but since it is definite that he wont be the Doctor, I'm going to vote for Riptide.

Just because I am more likely because I was pro-village last round does not mean I'm a mafia this time around.

Dr Henry · **Posted:** May 26th, 2012, 10:09 am

Riptide wrote:

Scar wrote:

I'm going to continue with what I said at the end of yesterday and vote for Riptide as well,, that was easily the most blatent "don't forget my name is on this train too" post I've ever seen.

My name would've come up later on in the game, on or off of the train. It's better to kill the Mafia than to just sit idly by.

Dr Henry wrote:

Of course, the maths showed that those who were vanilla last Act are more likely to be mafia, but also more likely to be power roles. Since we still have all our power roles, and Lander was a vanilla-turned mafia who I feel pointed out this maths in the first place in what I believe was an attempt to turn suspicion on Tahu and Aragorn (which backfired) - from this I feel that they could be pro-town.

Torn between Market and Riptide for now, but since it is definite that he wont be the Doctor, I'm going to vote for Riptide.

Just because I am more likely because I was pro-village last round does not mean I'm a mafia this time around.

That is a really poor defence for someone who is 2/4 votes to being lynched.

Especially since I didn't say that being pro-village last round makes you mafia for definite, I said that, coupled with other reasons, and the fact that at the very least, you wont be the Doctor, that I chose you over Market to vote for at this early stage in the day. It could change depends on what Market or others say, or if you put up a decent defence.

Topsummoner · **Posted:** May 26th, 2012, 11:31 am

Monk Basher wrote:

I just had a fiendish thought. Why did Lander claim med student, the least useful of the special roles? Literally any other claim would have given more info to the mafia.

I think Lander's train of thought was that of all the special roles in Act One, Med Student was the most likely to be cut from Act Two to make room for something else. It was a desperate gambit, and it ultimately backfired on him, but that's what I saw. I think this more or less confirms the '3 mafia' theory, though, since Lander must have known there was at least one displaced role if he would make that gambit.

Moving on...

I'd like to see Riptide roleclaim. He can't be the Doctor as Henry stated, and if he's something else like Detective or Insomniac, then he can just be protected. It's more likely he's just mafia though.
Since the train's at 2/4, I'm going to withhold my vote for now.

Dr Henry · **Posted:** May 26th, 2012, 11:35 am

Topsummoner wrote:

Monk Basher wrote:

I just had a fiendish thought. Why did Lander claim med student, the least useful of the special roles? Literally any other claim would have given more info to the mafia.

I think Lander's train of thought was that of all the special roles in Act One, Med Student was the most likely to be cut from Act Two to make room for something else. It was a desperate gambit, and it ultimately backfired on him, but that's what I saw. I think this more or less confirms the '3 mafia' theory, though, since Lander must have known there was at least one displaced role if he would make that gambit.

For the record, it is still possible that Med Student was cut and that both you and Lander are mafia, and that this is all a ploy cooked up between the two of you: sacrifice Lander, leave Top as a confirmed townie.

Out of curiousity, and keeping in line with the rules: What did your PM say about the role? I doubt he would change it from what he told me last Act, so consider this me confirming you in my own mind if what you say matches up.

Topsummoner · **Posted:** May 26th, 2012, 11:36 am

Dr Henry wrote:

For the record, it is still possible that Med Student was cut and that both you and Lander are mafia, and that this is all a ploy cooked up between the two of you: sacrifice Lander, leave Top as a confirmed townie.

Out of curiousity, and keeping in line with the rules: What did your PM say about the role? I doubt he would change it from what he told me last Act, so consider this me confirming you in my own mind if what you say matches up.

Possible, but extremely unlikely

Paraphrasing here of course:

I am the Medical Student. I currently have no special abilities, but if that changes Jaron will let me know. I win when all the Mafia are dead.

Dr Henry · **Posted:** May 26th, 2012, 11:39 am

Topsummoner wrote:

Dr Henry wrote:

For the record, it is still possible that Med Student was cut and that both you and Lander are mafia, and that this is all a ploy cooked up between the two of you: sacrifice Lander, leave Top as a confirmed townie.

Out of curiousity, and keeping in line with the rules: What did your PM say about the role? I doubt he would change it from what he told me last Act, so consider this me confirming you in my own mind if what you say matches up.

Possible, but extremely unlikely

Paraphrasing here of course:

I am the Medical Student. I currently have no special abilities, but if that changes Jaron will let me know. I win when all the Mafia are dead.

Yeah, you are Med Student

Better safe than sorry haha.

Scar · **Posted:** May 26th, 2012, 3:35 pm

@Rip, you hoped on the train after the lynch was already going to happen. Hence why I say your vote was solely to get your name attached to the train against Lander.

And it's not just that, it's the flimsy reasoning you gave with the vote:

Riptide wrote:

Topsummoner wrote:

That solves that then since I'm the Med Student.

Landerpurex

Reason enough for me. Lander.

Not only was your vote unneeded at that point, but you didn't even back it up with anything outside of Top's counter-claim. Saying something without saying something comes to mind.

Riptide · **Posted:** May 26th, 2012, 3:38 pm

Scar wrote:

Not only was your vote unneeded at that point]

Give me one example where I have ever kept track of votes.

Scar · **Posted:** May 26th, 2012, 4:46 pm

Well if I wanted to be pedantic I am sure I could find a post by you in some game where you had, but that wouldn't be worth the effort because in the post before yours Henry pointed out that a lynch had been made already making any vote counting on your part unneeded.

Topsummoner · **Posted:** May 26th, 2012, 4:51 pm

In case it wasn't clear: Riptide, roleclaim or I will vote for you.

Riptide · **Posted:** May 26th, 2012, 5:01 pm

Topsummoner wrote:

In case it wasn't clear: Riptide, roleclaim or I will vote for you.

Villager.

Topsummoner · **Posted:** May 26th, 2012, 5:42 pm

Hum. I'm not very satisfied by your defenses, but I'm still reluctant to vote.

Where are Aragorn and Tahu? I'm a little uneasy pushing for a lynch I'm not sure on when those two have stayed silent today. What do you guys think of Riptide?

Actually, Market could speak up too, considering the only post he's made today has been extraordinarily unhelpful.

Dr Henry · **Posted:** May 26th, 2012, 5:57 pm

Riptide wrote:

Topsummoner wrote:

In case it wasn't clear: Riptide, roleclaim or I will vote for you.

Villager.

Top, I'm going to remind you that Scar and Monk are villagers. I was under the impression that general opinion was that there would only be 2 vanilla townies since there were now 3 mafia.

Definitely not buying Riptides claim here therefore. He knows he cannot fake a roleclaim as he will get called up on it so he tried playing it safe but I'm not sure the numbers add up.

Topsummoner · **Posted:** May 26th, 2012, 6:08 pm

There's no actual evidence Scar is not a power role.

In addition, several other things are completely possible, such as Detective or Insomniac being dropped to make the game more fair for the mafia.

Dr Henry · **Posted:** May 26th, 2012, 6:23 pm

Topsummoner wrote:

There's no actual evidence Scar is not a power role.

In addition, several other things are completely possible, such as Detective or Insomniac being dropped to make the game more fair for the mafia.

Ah that is true. I misread Jaron's post, I thought they were both confirmed vanilla, but they are just both confirmed non-mafia.

I think it is possible that Insomniac would be dropped, but I doubt Detective would be. The mafia may have gained a Framer to strengthen them though.

Topsummoner · **Posted:** May 26th, 2012, 6:39 pm

I'm curious why you would doubt Detective being dropped. It was through Detective investigations that the village won Act One, and it is a far more powerful role than the Insomniac.

Bifurcate Mafia: Game over, Village wins (twice)!

Who is online