i was going to force something out of aragorn, simply because he is alphabetically first, and each of the three is as good a guess as the next.... but lander has more votes on him, and adding one more will get more results.

also, lander, this has nothing to do with my previous vote on you in phase I. that old vote was simply because at that time, you hadnt said anything for the longest period of time.

If this is the route to take, everyone else has a 33% chance of being scum. A chance of getting vanilla townie, a power role, or mafia. This is a descriptivist type of thing and doesn't account for numbers or other variables. This makes it a weak (but simple) theory, I guess. Each roll has one of two (or three) outcomes. Power role (town aligned) or mafia. 50/50.

Of course, you could break it down further, as any of us former vanilla could be insomniac, doctor, med student, detective, or one of three(?) mafia. Still 3/7, or 42.85%. This still makes us more likely to be mafia than anyone else, however. Everyone else has the odds of two vanilla townie roles, three power roles (minus whatever they were last time) and three(?) mafia slots. 3/8, or 37.5%.

You could also look at the odds as 2:3:3 for everyone else, and 4:3 for us if you're into ratios.

The initial 3/7 probability for everyone was wrong, as you need to account for both vanilla townie spots and all three mafia spots, not just the roles. This probability is more likely what you had in mind, but it still supports my point: those who were vanilla townies last game have a higher chance of being mafia this time around.

The 50/50 thing isn't *wrong*, it just doesn't account for the variables. If you have three red squares versus a blue ball, a green ball, a purple ball, and a yellow ball, what are the odds of drawing a square versus the odds of drawing a ball? Color (the role) hardly matters, because it's the fact that it's a ball (town-aligned) that's important. Even with this, the 50/50 thing seems like bs. In retrospect, it wasn't the best way to illustrate my point. My argument is that there are two types of shapes. Which doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

In short: Probability is a bunch of nonsense and you can look at it a number of ways, but each way ends in us more likely to be scum. Hence why my vote stays on Tahu at this point.

That solves that then since I'm the Med Student.

Landerpurex

I just had a fiendish thought. Why did Lander claim med student, the least useful of the special roles? Literally any other claim would have given more info to the mafia. Henry then makes a helpfully unhelpful post about what happened today. Something isn't right here. I'm sure it's not lynching Lander, but between Top, Henry and/or Tahu, I'm uncertain.

Thoughts, anyone? Might as well use the twilight, after all.