Mafia - Day 12: Knockin' on Heaven's Door (DEMONIC WINS)

Landerpurex · **Posted:** March 21st, 2013, 2:04 am

I'd also add bluecoat and a tentative paidea to that list of suspected townies. Blue started the train on Kikori yesterday and saw it through.

Paidea is tentative because he's smart enough to know that kikori plays like Fuzzy Bunny

as mafia, and to get on a train early as mafia to look town. No offense to bluecoat, but the mafia very rarely bus their own players unprovoked. Though it *could* be some elaborate plan by kikori and company, who dislikes being mafia and doesn't historically play well as mafia, to get bussed, I highly doubt this is the case.

Doc, by your actions yesterday I am willing to believe you are town, but frankly, you need to get it together. Penguin has all the good points here. Though you will not see my vote settle on you unless there are extenuating circumstances, a suspected townie has a lot of power. You voted for me (a townie) yesterday, and now you're voting for Monk, someone who was attacked by the demon. Jack explicitly said that someone else who was not the demon carried out the attack, and therefor it maybe wasn't as strong. Perhaps the convert has a fail rate, or something. Either way, L2read the flavor text, especially when it contains such pertinent information.

Monk, your defense is just as bad seeing as how kikori came pre-converted.

It should also be noted now (if we're still talking about role pms) that it's likely that *everyone* received the information about the demon in their PM. My declaration yesterday and Doc's response does in no way confirm him as town, in hindsight. Anyways, the fact that kikori voted for you in OMGUS makes you look more town. Then again, we all are smart enough to vote for our mafia buddies when/if we sense we are going down for that exact reason.

But I'm not touching that one, not yet.

Following are the people who voted for kikori, in order:

Bluecoat - Started the train. Highly unlikely that he is scum.
Paidea - Unlikely that he is scum, but is smart enough to get on the train early if he is.
Myself - that's me. I'm not mafia.
Penguin - Same description as Paidea. Little more likely to be scum due to being later to the train.
Doc Henry - See above.
Kikori - Speaks for itself
FriskyAlpaca - From this point on, after kikori's implosion, everyone is as likely to be scum or town.
Topsummoner - Villager.
Monk - Villager (?)
Scar - dead.

Phantomrose.

Post one from yesterday:

Quote:

It's a relief to see that Top survived! Good job to whoever the Doctor is! It is also good that we haw one mafia member down.

Do I even need to point out why this is scummy?

Quote:

I think I am going to put a FoS on Kikori for now, until he can reply with an answer. As for the Demon, would it be important to catch the identity of it as soon as possible, or is it safe to wait a bit?

Same thing as kikori. Diverted attention, did not place a vote for her fellow mafioso while implying she(?) would weigh in later on, yet never did. One arbitrary post later, she disappeared.

Yuuup.

Also, where are these players?

16. Ex Rex
17. Rat King
18. Imasquid

Aragorn Ix · **Posted:** March 21st, 2013, 2:44 am

I feel like my usefulness to the village will be over by day 4 and, in case I die, I want to reveal what I've learned.

I'm the Jack of All Trades, I have three one shot abilities (Tracker, Investigation and Night kill) I've used the first two and will use the last one tonight. Night one I tracked Godders, discovering that he went to Top's house and died subsequently, hence my query about Top being cult aligned.
Night two I investigated Paidea, who it was revealed is a possessed villager (cult aligned) and also a nurse.

My assumption is that both are not villager aligned, though Top's role is up for debate.

Seeing as the doctor has died I doubt I'll survive the next night.

Aragorn Ix · **Posted:** March 21st, 2013, 4:21 am

I'd also like to add that there's no chance a framer could make Paidea appear both villager and cult at the same time, so I have no issues with lynching him.

I figured it was necessary to claim now in case Top is cult because he's being seen as a villager in many peoples eyes, which could ultimately be our downfall. Top could be a villager with a role like the paranoid gun owner, but I'd like to see his explanation for what happened night one.

FriskyAlpaca · **Posted:** March 21st, 2013, 5:15 am

Do you have any reasoning as to why you tracked Godders N1 and investigated Paidea N2?

Why would your usefullness go away by day 4? Being alive is useful, as long as you are not possessed. Given what happens to possessed people when the demon dies, the more villagers the better.

Aragorn Ix · **Posted:** March 21st, 2013, 5:22 am

Suspected Godders day one on a hunch, no specific reason if I'm honest.

As for Paidea, I know how good a player he is and the likeliness he would take a lead role in the game, so I decided to make sure he wasn't leading us to a mafia/cult victory, which he will do.

Well my abilities are one shot, so after tonight I'll be an ordinary villager, that's all I meant.

FriskyAlpaca · **Posted:** March 21st, 2013, 5:31 am

I imagine if we do not lynch Paidea today, tonight he will be your night-kill to provide evidence of your role-claim?

I would like to believe your claim due to you mentioning your ability vaguely shortly after N1 ended, but I am leery about fully accepting it given that you seem to play Mafia often, a brief check showed you playing in the last 5 games at least. So you could be more efficient and skilled at developing a story to hide behind.

Aragorn Ix · **Posted:** March 21st, 2013, 5:35 am

With the role blocker dead, the only problem I have is another interfering with mine or my targets tonight. I'm disinclined to target Paidea though because a lynch would prove my claim better than a risky attempt at a nightkill. Besides, I am likely to be a mafia target from now on, so doubt I'll survive the night.

Rat King · **Posted:** March 21st, 2013, 6:15 am

Sorry, been caught up playing Crusader Kings 2.

I am inclined to agree with Penguin about Dr Henry. First he's all for letting the demon sit, and now he's an advocate for wasting him without learning anything? I'd say he's getting a bit nervous about something.

Also, if it is as Aragorn claims, and Paidea is a possessed villager, shouldn't we get rid of him sometime soon? The demon's party is trying to take over the town, and I would guess that the possessed people can kill or convert others. I would think only some of them, however, judging by Kik's quoted pm. But still, the less of the third party that is around, the better, right?

Aragorn Ix · **Posted:** March 21st, 2013, 6:19 am

Rat, why are you voting for DH not Paidea then?

Rat King · **Posted:** March 21st, 2013, 7:04 am

Hmm? Oh, I had typed that bit earlier, and completely forgot that I voted for Doc.

While I point the FoS at Doc Henry, at least we know that Paidea is possessed. So, I drop my vote for Doc, and instead, I say Paidea.

Market Man6 · **Posted:** March 21st, 2013, 7:56 am

I think we should hold off on killing paidea until the end of the day. This would enable us to continue hunting for the demon in the meantime.

ex rex have you been so quiet because you have been hiding something?

Phantomrose · **Posted:** March 21st, 2013, 8:06 am

I was going to change, and post a vote for Kikori right after he spilled out his pm, but it was too late and I was at work at the time. It seems like Dr. Henry did come a bit soft about the demon attacks, so my guess for now is that he could possibly be a possessed villager?

As for Paidea, I believe that is it better to lynch him, than to keep him around, so I vote for Paidea.

On another unrelated note, my posting might be limited the next four days. I am going up to Boston with my friend to visit her boyfriend, and to attend Pax East. I will return sometime on Monday afternoon, however I will still looks through the thread and try to post via phone.

Paidea · **Posted:** March 21st, 2013, 9:02 am

I am assuming that I'm multi-aligned, just like Kikori. Yes I am a possessed villager for one; I started the game that way. I am also the nurse, for two. I didn't have any powers until the doctor was killed. I am supposed to win when the Demon has total control, but I'm also unaware of the Demon's identity (and the Demon was unaware of mine, until now). If the Demon dies then I win when all the Mafia are dead.

Lynching me may be the safest option, but give me a chance to talk some sense into you guys. Lynching me would definitely take one away from the Demon's population count... but it appears like the number is growing every night anyway. You guys should assume that Monk is possessed.

Now, let's assume the worst case scenario for the Town. Right now there are 15 players left. There are 3 cultists (Demon, myself, and Monk) and ~3 mafia. 9 townies with unknown, unpredictable roles (except Aragorn's). If you simply lynch me, you cut the Cult's number down by 1. If the Mafia are smart, they would kill Aragorn to prevent him from possibly killing one of them. The Demon converts someone (or kills someone). Tomorrow you have 13 players left with 3 cultists and ~3 mafia (or 12 players left with 2 cultists and ~3 mafia). 3 V 3 V 7 and you have one last shot to lynch the Demon. If you fail that, the Town will lose unless the Mafia kills the Demon. (Or 2 V 3 V 7 and you don't have to worry about a Cult win immediately, but you are at MYLO anyway and at the mercy of scum if the game becomes 3 v 3 v 5 by Day 5).

If you don't lynch me, lynch the Demon. At the very least, lynch a mafia. Right now both of these are way more dangerous than I am. I can't kill or convert, and I can actually win with the Town. Even if you mislynch, I can save Aragorn tonight, ensuring two things: 1) That his nightkill will be successful and 2) That you have a clear tomorrow. A mislynch and a miskill leaves the game at 4 V 3 V 5 and the game is over. But a mislynch and a safekill on Monk leaves the game at 3 V 3 V 6 and you still have one more shot to lynch the Demon, with a clear.

If you guys lynch Monk today I have no choice but to protect myself. Can't risk that Aragorn will kill me and if the Mafia kills the Demon I become a full fledged townie anyway. If you guys lynch a mafioso I can save Aragorn and let him take a shot at the Demon (it's not me, Monk, Tops, or Aragorn himself -- so a 1/10 shot with a 3/10 shot to hit scum). A miskill leaves the game at 4 V 2 V 7 and you have another mislynch, with a clear.

Basically...
>>> Lynch me and you have only ONE total opportunity to kill the Demon yourselves, allowing that the Mafia does not kill it.

>>> Spare me and you have at least TWO, possibly THREE (or more) total opportunities to kill the Demon yourselves, allowing that the Mafia does not kill it.

3. Aragorn Ix - JoaT, town.
4. Topsummoner - can't be the Demon, probably Town. Would hold off lynching today.
5. Market Man6 - scummy. Congratulated the doctor and lack of activity/input.
6. bluecoat - first vote on Kikori, seems Town. Would hold off lynching today.
7. Sayaka - scummy. Faded out of the Kikori train yesterday. Was not "100% sure" but Kikori was even more obviously scum this game than last time. Regardless, did not vote for him.
8. FriskyAlpaca - gut says Town. Don't really know though. Would hold off lynching today.
9. Dr Henry - not fond of the tactics (I would not allow it in any of my games), but probably Town. Could still be converted. Would hold off lynching today.
10. Landerpurex - same as Dr Henry.
11. Sighence - probably can't be the Demon, probably Cult. Would hold off lynching today.
13. Paidea - nurse, currently aligned with the Cult, can win with the Town. WOULD HOLD OFF LYNCHING TODAY!
14. Phantomrose - scummy. Pointing out the obvious and providing only filler.
15. PenguinGuy - townish and helpful but definitely not off the radar. Could very easily be Mafia, or the Demon itself.
16. Ex Rex - silent, coinflip.
17. Rat King - only one post, I think. Not anything that screams Demon or Mafia. Would hold off lynching today.
18. Imasquid - silent, coinflip.

Today I will vote for Sayaka, Market, or Phantomrose, at Aragorn's discretion.

Topsummoner · **Posted:** March 21st, 2013, 9:04 am

Aragorn Ix wrote:

I feel like my usefulness to the village will be over by day 4 and, in case I die, I want to reveal what I've learned.

I'm the Jack of All Trades, I have three one shot abilities (Tracker, Investigation and Night kill) I've used the first two and will use the last one tonight. Night one I tracked Godders, discovering that he went to Top's house and died subsequently, hence my query about Top being cult aligned.
Night two I investigated Paidea, who it was revealed is a possessed villager (cult aligned) and also a nurse.

My assumption is that both are not villager aligned, though Top's role is up for debate.

Seeing as the doctor has died I doubt I'll survive the next night.

....Do you know what the Nurse role is? :glare:

The reason I suspect Godders visited my house is to try to kill me, as you remember, he was a mafia and I was attacked that night?

I think lynching the servants of the Demon is a bit like attacking the symptoms instead of the problem. Taking Kikori as prescendence, you'll notice that if the Demon were to die, he would have regained his original alignment. I'm willing to believe the same will happen to Paidea, and his role is valuable enough for us to try and salvage it. Either way, it's safe to not lynch him today, because I suspect that with the outing of his role he will be the mafia's target tonight regardless.

-- ninja'd by Paidea, he said a lot of the same things as me and more.

Aragorn Ix · **Posted:** March 21st, 2013, 9:27 am

Topsummoner wrote:

Aragorn Ix wrote:

I feel like my usefulness to the village will be over by day 4 and, in case I die, I want to reveal what I've learned.

I'm the Jack of All Trades, I have three one shot abilities (Tracker, Investigation and Night kill) I've used the first two and will use the last one tonight. Night one I tracked Godders, discovering that he went to Top's house and died subsequently, hence my query about Top being cult aligned.
Night two I investigated Paidea, who it was revealed is a possessed villager (cult aligned) and also a nurse.

My assumption is that both are not villager aligned, though Top's role is up for debate.

Seeing as the doctor has died I doubt I'll survive the next night.

....Do you know what the Nurse role is? :glare:

The reason I suspect Godders visited my house is to try to kill me, as you remember, he was a mafia and I was attacked that night?

I think lynching the servants of the Demon is a bit like attacking the symptoms instead of the problem. Taking Kikori as prescendence, you'll notice that if the Demon were to die, he would have regained his original alignment. I'm willing to believe the same will happen to Paidea, and his role is valuable enough for us to try and salvage it. Either way, it's safe to not lynch him today, because I suspect that with the outing of his role he will be the mafia's target tonight regardless.

-- ninja'd by Paidea, he said a lot of the same things as me and more.

I appear to have mixed up the nurse and the quack/insane doctor roles, sorry about that.

It appears to me that Godders died as a result of visiting your house, at least according to the wording of the result of my tracking on night one. That said, I could be making the ad hoc ergo proptor hoc fallacy!

unvote

Even if I was targeted tonight, my nightkill should take place anyway as it has in previous games where I've been the JoAT or Vigilante.

As for who to lynch today, I wil always be very weary of Penguin after his shenanigans last game, but think Phantom or market are the safest bets. I'm curious to see the others opinions?

Aragorn Ix · **Posted:** March 21st, 2013, 9:35 am

post hoc ergo propter hoc*

Also: Activity isn't the greatest indicator of allegiance, I should know it's brought up against me every game.

Dr Henry · **Posted:** March 21st, 2013, 11:57 am

Paidea wrote:

3. Aragorn Ix - JoaT, town.
4. Topsummoner - can't be the Demon, probably Town. Would hold off lynching today.
5. Market Man6 - scummy. Congratulated the doctor and lack of activity/input.
6. bluecoat - first vote on Kikori, seems Town. Would hold off lynching today.
7. Sayaka - scummy. Faded out of the Kikori train yesterday. Was not "100% sure" but Kikori was even more obviously scum this game than last time. Regardless, did not vote for him.
8. FriskyAlpaca - gut says Town. Don't really know though. Would hold off lynching today.
9. Dr Henry - not fond of the tactics (I would not allow it in any of my games), but probably Town. Could still be converted. Would hold off lynching today.
10. Landerpurex - same as Dr Henry.
11. Sighence - probably can't be the Demon, probably Cult. Would hold off lynching today.
13. Paidea - nurse, currently aligned with the Cult, can win with the Town. WOULD HOLD OFF LYNCHING TODAY!
14. Phantomrose - scummy. Pointing out the obvious and providing only filler.
15. PenguinGuy - townish and helpful but definitely not off the radar. Could very easily be Mafia, or the Demon itself.
16. Ex Rex - silent, coinflip.
17. Rat King - only one post, I think. Not anything that screams Demon or Mafia. Would hold off lynching today.
18. Imasquid - silent, coinflip.

Today I will vote for Sayaka, Market, or Phantomrose, at Aragorn's discretion.

This doesn't quite sit right with me. As far as I am aware, cultists are a GROUP. You are a cult member, yet in this you say that Sighence is 'probably Cult', when you would know outright.
Also, on that point, saying I could be converted, do you mean that I could be possessed already, or in the future? If it is the former, then my above point stands. If it is the latter, anyone could be converted so it isn't much of a point.

@Penguin, why can't I vote for him for pressure? I questioned Lander about it as Kikori was ALREADY under pressure, and Lander added his vote without any extra thoughts which was unlike him. My vote, on the other hand, was to draw Sighence's attention to my post. As you will notice, he then failed to answer my question and instead made very little sense in his statement.

Now you have also questioned me for saying that trying to convert a mafia could fail, and using Kikori as an example. Lander says I should read the flavour text. I did. If you actually paid attention to Kikori's rant yesteday, you will see that HE STARTED AS CULT/MAFIA. He was not converted. So my point stands - if a Cultist attempts to convert a mafia, it could easily fail. The flavour text says that Muffin 'guesses' that it was because they weren't strong enough, but obviously Jack can't say 'it failed because he is mafia'. My vote for Sighence is valid and remains until he gives us some kind of reason for how he survived the night.

Also @Penguin, yesterday I was apparently 'soft' on the Demon despite saying that I was all for killing him when we knew more about him and could find him. Today, funnily enough, we know more about him. 1) It isn't Kikori, or Scar, and probably not Sighence either. 2) His followers can perform actions on his behalf. 3) He didn't kill anyone last night.

Right now, here are my thoughts on others:
Frisky Alpaca - My gut instinct thinks he is the demon. I have no evidence backing it up but if you recall, Sayaka has labelled 3 people as mafia in a previous game without evidence and been correct about at least one (I ended up being Miller in that) and people were fine with it.
Penguin - Mafia. His constant attacks on me seem similar to last game, when he kept pushing for trains on me, stating that pretty much anything I said is 'suspicious' in order get me lynched. He turned out to be mafia, and I see the same in this game.
Sayaka - I think he is possessed. Paidea's labelling of him gives me the impression that he knows this, and wants to 'help' the town to save his skin by throwing a cultist under the bus.
Rat King's allegiance with PG seems to be an inexperienced mafia member following his leader, then realising his mistake and changing his vote.
Aragorn - Well frankly he could be lying, it is possible... but I doubt it so I am inclined to believe him for now.
Paidea - Possessed nurse. Still our only form of doctor and most likely to die tonight anyway if the mafia have any say in it, so I feel it is still in our best interests to allow him to live tonight, he may save someone. His thoughts on Frisky help my gut instinct, as to me it looks like Paidea may be trying to divert attention away from the Demon. Cannot judge where his allegience lies though, as he can probably win both ways.
Bluecoat - seems villager to me.
Phantom - the sudden disappearance for the next few days wont help us out at all, but not a priority lynch.

Aragorn Ix · **Posted:** March 21st, 2013, 12:55 pm

DH do you really think i'd claim paid was a possessed nurse? As for a vote with phantom being gone it might be better to focus elsewhere so I'll go for sayaka.

Sighence · **Posted:** March 21st, 2013, 1:07 pm

I don't know how I survived the night. The flavor text that you ostensibly read suggests the killer was interrupted and/or was incompetent. The phrase 'How hard can it be to suck out someone's soul?" suggests that I still have mine. I'm gonna guess that I'm not converted; if I am, I don't know it. As I said, I'm not sure how I survived. It could be anything from a 50/50 success chance on the action (my guess if I have to make one) to someone visiting me and stopping it. I don't know. Either way, since Mafia can start out as converted, not allowing future mafia to be converted is dumb. Therefore saying that I'm mafia because the cult's action on me failed is bunk. This is what I meant earlier; I forgot having anything even remotely unclear with you lot literally never works. My bad.

Paid, your analysis seems to forget that we know that the demon wins with controlling the entire population. Treating the cult as a separate side is a bad idea there. FoS on you; my intuition tells me you're intentionally misleading us.

imasquid · **Posted:** March 21st, 2013, 1:51 pm

Sorry for not voting yesterday. I came down with a bad case of stellar atmosphere homework and uncooperative programming. I shall strive to be more active in the village.

I have some concerns about what Paidea said. We have no way of accurately estimating the number of mafia and possessed. I believe this because Sighence made it through the night partially attacked. Since it was a demon attack, Sighence cannot be the demon. Perhaps he is a cultist. Along with Monk and Paidea. Killing a cultist right now doesn't seem to make any sense. I think instead we should go for PhantomRose.

Mafia - Day 12: Knockin' on Heaven's Door (DEMONIC WINS)

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