Mafia -- And that's the ballgame. Mafia win.

Frank 4.0.1 · **Posted:** January 17th, 2013, 2:55 pm

The villagers awoke rather aloof... I mean the Doctor would be up to the task of saving another one of us, right? Everyone made their way to the Timeshare Resource Managers Office and noticed resident cutup Market Man6 was once again missing.

Investigating his house left a gruesome feeling in the stomachs of the entire community... Luck would not strike twice for young Market Man. He would prove to be the first casualty of the Mafia.

Market Man6, Villager. Friend... Hated by the Mafia.

DAY THREE STARTS

Jackstick · **Posted:** January 17th, 2013, 4:03 pm

Looks like we- err, I mean the mafia, got lucky this time.

Kikori · **Posted:** January 17th, 2013, 4:25 pm

... Huh. Confirmed villager, so marked to die eventually, but with all the WIFOM material floating around I figured it'd be one of the suspected Mafia to go.

I'm torn. Sayaka's behavior has sat poorly at best with me. However...

Topsummoner wrote:

Unvote.

As much as it pains me to cop out like this, the lynch is getting dangerously close to fruition while some important voices have gone unheard.

After this unvote, all potential "important voices" came in to talk, with quite a bit to say. Between having something directly said to him to respond to, and having others' very valid points and options set on the table to respond to, staying copped out for that long in the day is eating at me.
And no, I'm not counting his turning around to vote for me as a contribution after the quoted post above. The entire focus of the day seemed to be put on Sayaka's behavior, and the opinions generated from that. A fluff-vote for me with actual discussion happening around it does not seem solid and contributory.

Topsummoner.

Dr Henry · **Posted:** January 17th, 2013, 6:51 pm

I am curious to hear what Sayaka has to bring to the table today. What percentages is he going to announce, or is he going to change how he is playing.

Also, why Market? So many other targets that night... such as Sayaka, myself, Godders or Kikori. Any of those four would have thrown up interesting results... obviously they would have targetted a villager amongst that list... and if it were me, for example, people would then question Sayaka. If Sayaka were killed, it would mean he were villager and would throw doubt onto all 3 of us.

Market's death does not do anything other than put us in the position we could have started Day 2 at.

Aragorn Ix · **Posted:** January 17th, 2013, 8:25 pm

Interesting choice of target in Market there, my thinking was the same as yours, Kikori. I figured market would be the last person they'd kill (besides themselves). I guess the reasoning was that they had no choice because he was confirmed pro town. To my mind he wasn't onto anything that hadn't already been brought up by the others...

Saten Ruiko · **Posted:** January 17th, 2013, 8:40 pm

Huh. On the list of people I thought the Mafia would target, Market was like, 5th or 6th.

I'm wondering what Riptide is up to. He always struck me as a much more active player, which seems odd because after placing a vote on me on Sunday (presumably because he was annoyed because he never once said he thought I was Mafia) he didn't post at all for the remaining 45 hours of Day 2. He was on RV a lot though so I took it as evading the thread.

Also Paidea never posted during Day 2 even though Top specifically asked him for input. Ex Rex didn't, either.

Riptide · **Posted:** January 17th, 2013, 9:52 pm

Time for me to sound like an idiot.

Sayaka wrote:

I'm wondering what Riptide is up to. He always struck me as a much more active player, which seems odd because after placing a vote on me on Sunday (presumably because he was annoyed because he never once said he thought I was Mafia) he didn't post at all for the remaining 45 hours of Day 2. He was on RV a lot though so I took it as evading the thread.

Sup. I wasn't avoiding the topic, I was watching. To no avail, really. Some of this stuff is just positively ridiculous. Anyways, I just looked through (read: skimmed) the topic. I think I may have been able to deduce one way you calculate your percentages, although I'll probably be wrong. Behavioral traits. Take for example, Kikori's seriousness on D1. Even after your dead serious post, he was still joking around on Godder's comment from earlier. However, only Paidea and Top buckled down and got serious, so there's not enough evidence there.

Topsummoner wrote:

Kikori for trying to directly persuade me. It just smells of trying to solidify a lynch on its last legs.
(insert extra logic here)
SO, since your reasons for him being mafia don't really make sense, why the direct persuasion? With a lynch so close, the mafia could pile on easily to finish Jaron off, with good justification. [/i]So this suggests to me either all the mafia are already on the train,[/i] or the remaining ones are inactive. Which is why you need to appeal to me.

I'm going to have to agree with just about everything in this post. Kikori used a question aimed at someone else's motives to justify his own, blah blah blah.

Kikori wrote:

(While we're on the topic, though, you totally should vote for Sayaka.)

To Sayaka, again.
Where quote and response one are concerned, it's not about editing previous posts. It's about adjusting behavior in the future to avoid whatever scumtell only you can see.
Here's the rub, though. ONLY YOU CAN SEE IT. Anyone you peg as Mafia doesn't have to change anything about themselves if you are the only person who thinks the behavior is suspicious. You could have the entire Mafia figured out by behavior, but this kind of approach will not be a game-changer. Especially when your suspicions were founded over Day one (a day of jokes) and the very earliest hours of Day two.

At this point, it just seems like you're panicking to me. You know Sayaka is spot on in his accusations and you want him gone.

Anyways yay lame posts from me. I 100% agree with Sayaka's accusations on Kikori.
Time for bed.

Riptide · **Posted:** January 17th, 2013, 9:53 pm

....I need to hit the preview button when typing late at night.

PenguinGuy · **Posted:** January 17th, 2013, 11:52 pm

I`m inclined to agree with everyone else on the reason for markets death, he was basically confirmed. Now, kiori, herny and godders, you didn't answer all of my questions yesterday, that i still want answered. For kikori,

PenguinGuy wrote:

Kikori, D1, you jumped on a joke and turned it serious, so far that Godder's got a good amount of votes. When you weren't even questioned about it, you jumped to defend yourself. D1 can be said to be scummy, but a townie sees no need to justify their action when they're not attacked, they know their own innocence. So why jump to defend yourself?

And for godders and henry,

penguinguy wrote:

So you guys are both saying he's contradicting himself? I beleive you gave another explanation Henry, but I wasn't sure which was "If he was Mafia" and which was "If he was village." Godders, you didn't provide an alternative explanation.

As for today, Sayaka, yesterday you spent the whole day telling us you were 100% sure that Kikori was scum, that he had made a horrible mistake, yet today, you seem to have forgotten. Now you are questioing the inactives (or those avoiding the topic). This is a rather startling heart(though i do appreciate you giving your reason for accusing riptide, unlike yesterday

). I don't know how you can go from 100% to no mention at all. Sayaka

I apologize for formatting and spelling, not on my regular device.

Kikori · **Posted:** January 18th, 2013, 1:30 am

PenguinGuy wrote:

Kikori, D1, you jumped on a joke and turned it serious, so far that Godder's got a good amount of votes. When you weren't even questioned about it, you jumped to defend yourself. D1 can be said to be scummy, but a townie sees no need to justify their action when they're not attacked, they know their own innocence. So why jump to defend yourself?

Your question was indirectly answered here. Topsummoner basically suspected and voted for me for the EXACT SAME THINGS as what you asked me.

I saw my name. Responded. I had hoped for something more serious than my post to come of it by the end of day one. No luck. The two happened to fit in one post.
If I really have to say more on the subject, then I'll be defending myself, and I might add from what feels like nothing.

And be it far from me to potentially defend a suspicious player, but...

PenguinGuy wrote:

As for today, Sayaka, yesterday you spent the whole day telling us you were 100% sure that Kikori was scum, that he had made a horrible mistake, yet today, you seem to have forgotten. Now you are questioing the inactives (or those avoiding the topic). This is a rather startling change of? heart(though i do appreciate you giving your reason for accusing riptide, unlike yesterday

). I don't know how you can go from 100% to no mention at all. Sayaka

Sayaka wrote:

Huh. On the list of people I thought the Mafia would target, Market was like, 5th or 6th.

I think that might explain why his target focus is shaken. Mafia acting unpredictably might mean being wrong about their composition.

Paidea · **Posted:** January 18th, 2013, 8:35 am

First week of the new semester, I apologize for not making any posts Day 2 but I have been here and I have thoroughly read the topic at least twice. Some posts and conversations, more than that.

I'll try and make this as short and concise as possible, even though I have a notepad with like 3-4 pages of thoughts scribbled away.

My vote today is for kikori kid. The village needs to make a lynch today or this will quickly become the mafia's game, and I whole-heartedly believe kikori is mafia.

First, you can give whatever reason you want for it -- yes your name was mentioned, but nothing was aimed directly at you. Yet you still took the opportunity to defend your actions from an attack that just wasn't there. Usually explaining yourself before even being accused is a sign of guilt.

Second, you are giving faulty, "this-or-that" logic. I don't see how much of Sayaka's babble could be construed as a "master mafia WIFOM plan" when it's only Day 2 at the point you said this line. If he's still alive much later in the game, it's more appropriate to talk about extended, wild possibilities. Right now, its too early to suggest that you actually believe that hyper-motive to be more likely than simply just being a gregarious villager. Additionally, saying that if he's town -- "oh well, you still tried your best" seems to me like you're trying hard to brush Sayaka off and sweep him under the mat.

And now the big one. I really think you dun goof'd on this one:

Quote:

My hope would be that seriously joining a faulty train with something semi-serious would put me under fire and get someone to start an active attack. No such luck.

Quote:

wanted to use it to try to get something going regardless of its target (as long as it wasn't me). No luck

Direct, undeniable contradiction about what your intentions were. You slipped up while trying to explain away your scummy actions.

If we need more icing on the cake, how about today? You vote Topsummoner because he made a fluffy, weak vote on you in the midst of heated discussion about Sayaka. Essentially, for ignoring something you believed to be important. If Sayaka's behavior is of utmost scrutiny right now, where is your vote on him and why are you not pushing on Sayaka for more? Personally, I believe that you are, as mafia, worried that the Sayaka lynch will probably not happen. It started dying and you realized that as pressure begins to amount on you, defending yourself or at least switching attention (to Tops) is more important than trying to go after Sayaka. You contradict yourself again by proclaiming that the activity surrounding Sayaka is highly relevant, yet ditch it completely to pursue someone else.

I have more to say about everyone who has posted, but I am severely cutting myself short on time to make it to class. My biggest, main argument is out there, and I will definitely be returning at the end of classes today to see where things have gone.

Godders · **Posted:** January 18th, 2013, 9:26 am

I feel almost certain that atleast one of Topsummoner, Kikori or Sayaka is Mafia.

Topsummoner could be Mafia because he drew attention away from Sayaka towards Kikori, Sayaka being close to being lynched, at the time 5/7 votes needed. Although i don't really believe him to be Mafia, just looking from a different perspective to everyone else.

Kikori could be Mafia, for pushing so hard against Sayaka early on, until Topsummoner relieved any pressure built up stopping a possible lynch, this could've angered Kikori, although he may have realised Sayaka wasn't going to get lynched, and tried to switch focus on Topsummoner. OR He is using it all as a Mafia diversion, to split to votes, and buy the Mafia a few days to get a couple of important kills.

Sayaka could be Mafia for being quite closed-off and possibly draw attention away from other Mafia members, him and Kikori could've started a fight between each other, which is a very common thing between Mafia members, that way one is proved as Mafia and the other is hailed as the hero for calling the other as Mafia, and ultimately gains villagers trust.

Personally i believe Kikori and Sayaka to both be Mafia.

But where the hell is Ex Rex?!?!

Dr Henry · **Posted:** January 18th, 2013, 9:30 am

For Penguin. Don't forget that this was a post from mid-yesterday and things may have changed since then, but I am answering your questions which I didn't have time to yesterday due to the day ending.

Dr Henry wrote:

If he is drawing this much attention to himself but has chosen 3 villagers to gun for, the mafia could attack him to frame them. The doctor could counter them again though, as he is the obvious target.

Most hosts don't allow mafia to attack themselves, so if he survives a night attack he is confirmed villager.

If he has somehow gotten lucky and chosen 2 mafia targets (I know it isn't 3) in that list, the mafia will be worried and that presents another reason to kill him off, but again the doctor may continue his protective streak.

Or he picked 3 random high-profile names to see their reactions, and the reactions from others, to information gather. Frankly, though, I feel that the percentages he is posting are a load of rubbish.
Or he has actually gone crazy.

^^ If he is villager ^^

Quote:

Or he is mafia, going crazy. Either trying to incriminate all/half of us... name 2 villagers and a mafia amongst them, 33% chance that his teammate gets chosen first the next day, odds are the other two will be safe for a while regardless of one being mafia. Or he wants to be killed off as he doesn't want to play as mafia.

^^ If he is mafia ^^

penguinguy wrote:

So you guys are both saying he's contradicting himself? I beleive you gave another explanation Henry, but I wasn't sure which was "If he was Mafia" and which was "If he was village." Godders, you didn't provide an alternative explanation.

Regarding contradictions, his response to my post at the end of yesterday seemed contradictory, in which he said that being attacked by the mafia at night definitely does not confirm him as villager, before backing up and saying he made a mistake. Obviously, mistakes like that tend of signifiy dishonesty and being scum.

Then, after all of the past two days gunning for Godders, and yesterday for myself and Kikori, he ignores my post of the day asking him to let us all know how he was feeling about the three of us now, and changes his mind and votes for Riptide. This is a point you mentioned in your vote for him Penguin, so I am not bringing anything new to the table by bringing it up.

Kikori's post afterwards suggesting a possible reason for this shift is a reasonable excuse for changing his vote, but not for completely ignoring the accusations he made on Day Two.

Now I agree with Paidea in that Sayaka's babbling cannot really be seen as a mafia master WIFOM plan... but frankly his jumping around on targets is making him seem scummy, and I would like to hear more about his thoughts on yesterday than he has so far given today when he ignored my first post and voted for Riptide. If anything, my gut is telling me he is a mafia now more than it was yesterday as he is naming as many others are possible, so his death will cause us all to have no idea who he was naming to frame, who to protect. 4 named, easily one could be his mafia co-hort in the 3 that aren't me. Easily one could also be miller (I have no idea). Just waiting for him to go fo a fifth person and really mess things up.

Dr Henry · **Posted:** January 18th, 2013, 9:33 am

Godders wrote:

I feel almost certain that atleast one of Topsummoner, Kikori or Sayaka is Mafia.

Topsummoner could be Mafia because he drew attention away from Sayaka towards Kikori, Sayaka being close to being lynched, at the time 5/7 votes needed. Although i don't really believe him to be Mafia, just looking from a different perspective to everyone else.

Kikori could be Mafia, for pushing so hard against Sayaka early on, until Topsummoner relieved any pressure built up stopping a possible lynch, this could've angered Kikori, although he may have realised Sayaka wasn't going to get lynched, and tried to switch focus on Topsummoner. OR He is using it all as a Mafia diversion, to split to votes, and buy the Mafia a few days to get a couple of important kills.

Sayaka could be Mafia for being quite closed-off and possibly draw attention away from other Mafia members, him and Kikori could've started a fight between each other, which is a very common thing between Mafia members, that way one is proved as Mafia and the other is hailed as the hero for calling the other as Mafia, and ultimately gains villagers trust.

Personally i believe Kikori and Sayaka to both be Mafia.

But where the hell is Ex Rex?!?!

Ex Rex has become less active on a game-by-game basis.

Penguin has asked us both a question twice now, I just answered it and I advise you to do the same.

You just picked three people who already have suspicion on them and said all three 'could' be mafia. Well done. Way to avert attention from yourself. The odds of the game do suggest that picking any 3 at random, one 'could' be mafia. Sayaka did the same thing as you did yesterday.

FoS Godders

Godders · **Posted:** January 18th, 2013, 9:39 am

Dr Henry wrote:

Godders wrote:

I feel almost certain that atleast one of Topsummoner, Kikori or Sayaka is Mafia.

Topsummoner could be Mafia because he drew attention away from Sayaka towards Kikori, Sayaka being close to being lynched, at the time 5/7 votes needed. Although i don't really believe him to be Mafia, just looking from a different perspective to everyone else.

Kikori could be Mafia, for pushing so hard against Sayaka early on, until Topsummoner relieved any pressure built up stopping a possible lynch, this could've angered Kikori, although he may have realised Sayaka wasn't going to get lynched, and tried to switch focus on Topsummoner. OR He is using it all as a Mafia diversion, to split to votes, and buy the Mafia a few days to get a couple of important kills.

Sayaka could be Mafia for being quite closed-off and possibly draw attention away from other Mafia members, him and Kikori could've started a fight between each other, which is a very common thing between Mafia members, that way one is proved as Mafia and the other is hailed as the hero for calling the other as Mafia, and ultimately gains villagers trust.

Personally i believe Kikori and Sayaka to both be Mafia.

But where the hell is Ex Rex?!?!

Ex Rex has become less active on a game-by-game basis.

Penguin has asked us both a question twice now, I just answered it and I advise you to do the same.

You just picked three people who already have suspicion on them and said all three 'could' be mafia. Well done. Way to avert attention from yourself. The odds of the game do suggest that picking any 3 at random, one 'could' be mafia. Sayaka did the same thing as you did yesterday.

FoS Godders

Not quite the same, Sayaka said these people are Mafia without giving his reasons for such a thing, i gave my reasons, i also said i thought the was an outside chance Topsummoner was Mafia, but it seemed quite unlikely to me, as for the Penguin question, im gonna look at it now.

Godders · **Posted:** January 18th, 2013, 9:52 am

Maybe i'm just being thick, but is Penguinguy asking "What is my views on the possibility of Sayaka being town or mafia?"

Frank 4.0.1 · **Posted:** January 18th, 2013, 10:38 am

Kikori · **Posted:** January 18th, 2013, 10:46 am

First, oh well. It's not the first time it's happened, it won't be the last. That's simply a Kikori-ism, no matter the role.
Second, the entire game has been filled with this-or-that (or that or that) logic. If you're going to start picking people out for it, I hope your more detailed post later starts naming more names. :?:

If my logic's faulty, then whoops, but I post it because I believe one of the options to be right.
And now the big one. The direct contradiction of my words. It exists, you caught me. Herp a derp forgot to specify "me getting lynched" instead of just "me" for the second quote because I didn't feel like it was needed. Heat, yes, lynch, no. In hindsight, it clearly was. +1 to me being scummy.

And now -1 to your need to scramble for evidence. I'm ignoring who for what contradiction now?
For one, I spotted a red flag with Topsummoner's behavior and called him out on it. That's Mafia. I Suggest You Come To Terms With It.
For two, "I'm torn. Sayaka's behavior has sat poorly at best with me." He hasn't disappeared, not by a long shot. If you need a visual comparison, picture him a rung below Top in a priority ladder. That and, if you haven't noticed, HE ISN'T EXPLAINING MUCH. His entire plan revolves around the suspected names continue to do what made him 'suspect' them and, no matter his investigator, numerous times has stuck to that confusing idea.
And for three, who do we know who has won a game by making a master plan of setting up a few specific names in order to distract the village into focusing on while secretly searching for high priority targets, and started this plan on day two? I wonder. The fact that you of all people are dismissing the idea that it may be happening again on a larger scale astounds me.

Godders, splitting the votes would have best happened Day Two, when OMGUS'ing Top was a clear option. The momentum was there and came close enough to make it for me to stick with it, and Top decided to pull out of the train and "wait" without giving any thoughts after what he waited for came. So yes, new day, momentum on Sayaka mostly gone, and Top's my pick.

Jackstick · **Posted:** January 18th, 2013, 11:42 am

Topsummoner

Topsummoner · **Posted:** January 18th, 2013, 3:01 pm

Oh My God, You Suck! (for voting me) Kikori

Kikori wrote:

Topsummoner wrote:

Unvote.

As much as it pains me to cop out like this, the lynch is getting dangerously close to fruition while some important voices have gone unheard.

After this unvote, all potential "important voices" came in to talk, with quite a bit to say. Between having something directly said to him to respond to, and having others' very valid points and options set on the table to respond to, staying copped out for that long in the day is eating at me.
And no, I'm not counting his turning around to vote for me as a contribution after the quoted post above. The entire focus of the day seemed to be put on Sayaka's behavior, and the opinions generated from that. A fluff-vote for me with actual discussion happening around it does not seem solid and contributory.

Uhm, hello? After my unvote I wrote several paragraphs about why I didn't think Sayaka was mafia. I originally voted for him because he was so committed to voting for Godders for no reason. I copped out because the lynch piled on very fast and I wasn't really feeling he was mafia by that point. I 'stayed' copped-out because I didn't think he was mafia, so why would I go back to his lynch train?

Topsummoner wrote:

I've left this train for a good reason: it does NOT make any sense for Jaron to make the move he has as a mafia member. Say Jaron flips mafia. He said that he is nigh-certain that you, Dr Henry, and Godders are mafia, whatever the reasons he may have are. This tells us absolutely no new information on the three of you. The WIFOM cancels itself out. We could go back and forth forever saying HE WAS TRYING TO CLEAR HIS FRIENDS, or HE WAS TRYING TO INCRIMINATE HIS ENEMIES. It's a waste of time and no good player would focus on that. What Jaron's death would yield would be entirely dependent on how everyone else REACTED to his strategy. Who voted for him, who argued with him, who DIDN'T vote for him.

Jaron's play has generated pretty much the only useful information we have thusfar in the game, for better or for worse. He has completely singled himself out by sticking to his "don't give reasons" strategy. There is no reason he should have done this as Mafia. It would put the Mafia down a man early, and it would generate a wealth of information for the town based on players reactions.

Calling my vote a 'fluff vote' does little to help your case either. I voted for you because your methods didn't sit right with me, and they continue to not today.

Mafia -- And that's the ballgame. Mafia win.

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