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 Post subject: Re: Deductive Reasoning Mafia - Day 3
PostPosted: August 30th, 2013, 6:51 am 
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I've been thinking about how there is 5 Magic Pen Holders, and how together they can work together to pin point 'roles', and i don't believe there is a Detective in this game.

Why would I lie about my roleclaim, there was no pressure on me at all, there wasn't even a vote on me, all of day 2 no one even appeared to acknowledge my existance. I come back from holiday and want to be as helpful as i can to the village by putting forward any and all information i can offer.

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 Post subject: Re: Deductive Reasoning Mafia - Day 3
PostPosted: August 30th, 2013, 6:56 am 
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Also, how can extenders be useful to the town, i can only imagine them giving a negative effect.

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 Post subject: Re: Deductive Reasoning Mafia - Day 3
PostPosted: August 30th, 2013, 8:19 am 
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No pressure?

You are one of three possible muters. Pretty sure both Top and Market will say it isn't them.

You took the chance to fake-claim a role which may or may not be in the game, with no way of testing, and apparently will have no affect until the doctor dies so anyone on your list who dies/gets muted is just a coincidence?

As I said, I'm not buying it.

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 Post subject: Re: Deductive Reasoning Mafia - Day 3
PostPosted: August 30th, 2013, 8:41 am 
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Dr Henry wrote:
No pressure?

You are one of three possible muters. Pretty sure both Top and Market will say it isn't them.

You took the chance to fake-claim a role which may or may not be in the game, with no way of testing, and apparently will have no affect until the doctor dies so anyone on your list who dies/gets muted is just a coincidence?

As I said, I'm not buying it.


Im still not sure i understand what the problem is, the only pressure im seeing is that im meant to be one of 3 people who might be a muter. I give an honest reason why i haven't posted in like 5 days, and none of my information is conflicting with anything, anyone else had to say.

May I ask what role you have and the people you selected and why?

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 Post subject: Re: Deductive Reasoning Mafia - Day 3
PostPosted: August 30th, 2013, 3:14 pm 
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Im still leaning towards jack

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 Post subject: Re: Deductive Reasoning Mafia - Day 3
PostPosted: August 30th, 2013, 5:44 pm 
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Dr Henry wrote:
Also, voting for Jack just because he is the only person who has the two mafia targets on his list isn't a foolproof plan, as this game probably allows the mafia to choose who actually performs the kill.


Could the same logic not also be applied to the possible muters, though? I think unless Jack gives us a good reason to keep him alive, it's still worth investigating that route to confirm how the mafia's kill system works; if he's not mafia, we know they can choose who does the kill. My vote stays on him.

That being said Nurse is a pretty flimsy roleclaim as it doesn't exactly require the holder to really own up to anything, but at the same time makes them seem important to keep alive. FOS Godders

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 Post subject: Re: Deductive Reasoning Mafia - Day 3
PostPosted: August 30th, 2013, 6:48 pm 
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Not sure how much more I can defend myself. To be honest, if I were you guys I'd vote for me too.

You could consider the possibility that the Godfather is the only mafia with the ability to initiate a kill. When you think of it that way, then I'm the only person who could possibly be the Godfather, going by events of N1 and N2.

But that's not true, because I'm innocent. So my favorite theory so far is that the Godfather sends a member of the mafia to do the killing.

My only question with that theory is: when the Godfather sends Mafia-X to kill Villager-Y, does Villager-Y appear on Mafia-X's list?

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 Post subject: Re: Deductive Reasoning Mafia - Day 3
PostPosted: August 30th, 2013, 7:08 pm 
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Jackstick

I believe Jackstick, Applequest, and Godders are all mafiosos.

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 Post subject: Re: Deductive Reasoning Mafia - Day 3
PostPosted: August 30th, 2013, 7:12 pm 
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Market Man6

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 Post subject: Re: Deductive Reasoning Mafia - Day 3
PostPosted: August 30th, 2013, 7:29 pm 
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Jackstick wrote:
Market Man6

Wait what?

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 Post subject: Re: Deductive Reasoning Mafia - Day 3
PostPosted: August 30th, 2013, 7:32 pm 
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You're the only one who appears on both the possible-muter and possible-extender list.

You're the safest bet.

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 Post subject: Re: Deductive Reasoning Mafia - Day 3
PostPosted: August 30th, 2013, 7:37 pm 
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Oh ok. So you do have a reason.
But I am available on basically every list. With that in account, do you still believe me to be the safest bet?
Also take into account my role claim. Now your "safest bet" is even thinner odds.

Still gonna keep your vote on me?

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 Post subject: Re: Deductive Reasoning Mafia - Day 3
PostPosted: August 30th, 2013, 7:47 pm 
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Tennis Ace wrote:
Jackstick

I believe Jackstick, Applequest, and Godders are all mafiosos.


Why do I suddenly get the feeling that the mafia are:

Apple
Godders
Jackstick
Tennis Ace

??

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 Post subject: Re: Deductive Reasoning Mafia - Day 3
PostPosted: August 30th, 2013, 7:57 pm 
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Im not to sure henry.
I do feel the same about jack. And similar about godders.


I would like to hear from godders. On N1, when I used my extender on you, what name did I add to your list?

And applequest. Same question. When I extended your list, which name appeared on your list because of my nightrole? (answer tomorrow when you can talk)

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 Post subject: Re: Deductive Reasoning Mafia - Day 3
PostPosted: August 30th, 2013, 7:59 pm 
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Sorry. Meant to say aragorn. Not apple

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 Post subject: Re: Deductive Reasoning Mafia - Day 3
PostPosted: August 30th, 2013, 8:38 pm 
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Market Man6 wrote:
Oh ok. So you do have a reason.
But I am available on basically every list. With that in account, do you still believe me to be the safest bet?
Also take into account my role claim. Now your "safest bet" is even thinner odds.

Still gonna keep your vote on me?

Oh, I forgot about that claim.

Even more reason to vote for you, then. In the game of Mafia, it is up to the town to discover the truth, and the Mafia to hinder that pursuit.

Magic Pen Holders reduce uncertainty. Extenders add to it. The game began with five MPHs and two Extenders. Sounds kinda sorta DIRECTLY PROPORTIONAL to the typical ratios of Town vs Mafia.

My vote stays.

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 Post subject: Re: Deductive Reasoning Mafia - Day 3
PostPosted: August 30th, 2013, 8:48 pm 
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I meant that I have inklings of those three as Mafia members, but I don't have any clear-cut suspicions on the other members.

In order of suspicion:

1. Jackstick
I suspect Jackstick for obvious reasons. He's 2 for 2 in nightkill votes. If he is 3 for 3 after tomorrow night, then I am voting for him immediately. If we don't lynch him after those odds, we really only have ourselves to blame.

2. Apple
Apple was very very quick to come out as a Villager, and I just found that highly suspect. Right after Sighence's role was revealed, Apple roleclaimed. The first thing that came to my mind was him realizing that, as a Magic Pen Holder himself (and if he is indeed Mafia), mafiosos and villagers could have the same role and he could reveal his role and at the same time be seen as innocent. He also led the charge against Defeat, when looking back, the jester role seems really obvious. Apple also decided to "randomly" target Rory, and it seems like a well-planned ruse to get Magic Pens off of potential Mafiosos, assuming Rory is a villager.

3. Godders
He's 2 for 2 on mutes just like Topsummoner and Market Man, but he also roleclaimed Nurse. Right now, we only know roles that affect peoples' voting lists, which is why this pops up as suspect.



I totally understand suspicion on people like Market Man, as Jackstick said. The three I mentioned though are just the conclusions I came to myself, without the influence of you all. I feel like that is the best way for us to come up with the most hypothetical solutions.

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 Post subject: Re: Deductive Reasoning Mafia - Day 3
PostPosted: August 30th, 2013, 9:33 pm 
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Jackstick wrote:
Magic Pen Holders reduce uncertainty. Extenders add to it. The game began with five MPHs and two Extenders. Sounds kinda sorta DIRECTLY PROPORTIONAL to the typical ratios of Town vs Mafia.

I have to agree with Jack on this one. The extender role in no way benefits the town, and only makes it harder on us. I'm not sure if Jaron would give the town a role that hinders it. Of Jack and Market, I'm more inclined to believe Market is mafia.

That leaves our muter possibilities to be Godders or Topsummoner. I am more inclined to believe Godders is mafia, most because of his weak roleclaim, made under no pressure. Topsummoner hasn't irked me any particular way (though in retrospect this lack of attention on him is weird).

I would like to hear from Market Man6 how exactly he helps the town.

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 Post subject: Re: Deductive Reasoning Mafia - Day 3
PostPosted: August 30th, 2013, 10:35 pm 
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Market Man6 wrote:
I would like to hear from godders. On N1, when I used my extender on you, what name did I add to your list?


Market Man6 was my target Night 1, with the 5 names of the list being; Aragorn, Defeat, Dr Henry, Ex Rex, Topsummoner. Which means that Applequest and SparkyAMS were the 2 names extended to my list.

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 Post subject: Re: Deductive Reasoning Mafia - Day 3
PostPosted: August 30th, 2013, 10:47 pm 
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Going off what penguin said about how extenders benefit the town, are they a neutral role of sorts? IE. They're not aligned with the mafia or the villagers?

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