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 Post subject: Re: Birfurcate Mafia: Act I, Day 4
PostPosted: May 20th, 2012, 11:28 am 
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Topsummoner came forward and claimed to be the Detective of the group, wagging a finger at Monk and pinning all of the town's woes on him. The others followed suit, and Monk Basher was eventually led to the gallows and hanged.

A swift search of his personal possessions revealed that indeed, Monk Basher had been a member of the Mafia.

Monk Basher - Mafia - Lynched Day 4

The Mafia threat was weakened, but not eliminated. Someone was surely going to die the next night, and when day would break, would the Villagers make the right move?

Night 4 has begun
(ends ~12:30 AM on Tuesday the 22nd)

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 Post subject: Re: Birfurcate Mafia: Act I, Night 4
PostPosted: May 20th, 2012, 4:33 pm 
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The next day began as all the rest had, including with one person missing--Topsummoner. Deep down, everyone knew that the Mafia probably hadn't taken his stint the previous day lightly. And true enough, when the Villagers got to his house, they found Top had been offed in his sleep, via brutal knife wounds. A search of his house revealed that he had had a fondness for playing the private eye. Unfortunately, it was this habit that probably got him killed.

Topsummoner - Detective - Slain Night 4

By now, only four Villagers remained. Given that everyone was still alive, there was probably only one Mafioso hiding among them. But who was it...?

Day 5 has begun
(ends ~5:30 PM CST on Wednesday, May 23rd)
4 players remain - 3 votes to lynch

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 Post subject: Re: Birfurcate Mafia: Act I, Day 5
PostPosted: May 20th, 2012, 8:55 pm 
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Scar. Short any unforeseen surprises, this game is all but over.

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 Post subject: Re: Birfurcate Mafia: Act I, Day 5
PostPosted: May 20th, 2012, 10:13 pm 
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Scar.

That kill was just out of spite. :laugh:

Though if the town had a detective, a doctor, a backup doctor, and an insomniac to throw off the mafia, there's little that could be done to really balance the game. I guess it all remains to be seen.

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 Post subject: Re: Birfurcate Mafia: Act I, Day 5
PostPosted: May 21st, 2012, 4:39 am 
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Scar.

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 Post subject: Re: Birfurcate Mafia: Act I, Day 5
PostPosted: May 21st, 2012, 1:56 pm 
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Well...that kinda sucks.

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 Post subject: Re: Birfurcate Mafia: Act I, Day 5
PostPosted: May 21st, 2012, 7:03 pm 
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No discussion was needed. The group led Scar to the gallows and finished him off. It was already clear he was the final culprit, and the town got their revenge.

Scar - Mafia - Lynched Day 5

The three remaining Villagers looked to each other and sighed. The town had been saved, but at what cost? Two-thirds of their friends and neighbors had perished in the struggle that took nearly a week. But at least the town was safe, and that was all that mattered. The remaining Villagers went to bed, attempting to set aside the nightmares that had befallen their Village.

~~~

There stands a Village. It's a Village like any other, one that perhaps all of us have seen a hundred times over. The Village is small--less than a dozen inhabitants, but all the same, everyone knows everyone else.

Or, they thought they did, anyway.

In the late hours of the twenty-first of May, forever referred to as "Night 0", one of their own was slain in the night.

Early the next morning, the nine remaining Villagers gathered in the town square. They all stared at each other--no one said a word. These...these people had died, right? How were they here? Someone finally spoke up with passion: "I don't care what happened, but I'm not making the same mistake twice! Kill Monk Basher and Scar--now!" But Scar and Monk Basher frantically shook their heads. "N-no--we're not Mafiosos!" And then there was more silence. Because as hard as it was to admit, everyone knew they were telling the truth, because two facts had somehow been burned into everyone's minds:

1) No one had the same role as they did in Act I, and
2) The threat to the Village was greater than ever.

Bifurcate Mafia: Act II
Day 1 (ends Thursday, May 24th, ~8 PM CST)
9 players remain - 5 votes to lynch

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 Post subject: Re: Birfurcate Mafia: Act II, Day 1
PostPosted: May 21st, 2012, 7:15 pm 
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So in Act 1, Monk and I were both Mafia as our Role. Therefore we are,for now, the only two confirmed villagers.

That leaves us with 7 unconfirmed persons. Lets do this.

Tahu, what's going on with you fella?

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 Post subject: Re: Birfurcate Mafia: Act II, Day 1
PostPosted: May 21st, 2012, 7:22 pm 
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Scar wrote:
So in Act 1, Monk and I were both Mafia as our Role. Therefore we are,for now, the only two confirmed villagers.

That leaves us with 7 unconfirmed persons. Lets do this.

Tahu, what's going on with you fella?


I find it strange that the host would confirm two villagers for us from the start. However, he did just make it clear than both of you are not mafia. If, somehow, we lose the game because one of you two IS mafia - major hosting error.

For now, though, I'll accept the two confirmed. It's good to be back! (Mafia: Don't you DARE kill me night one AGAIN! Saw it coming last time but just don't be a dick this time)

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 Post subject: Re: Birfurcate Mafia: Act II, Day 1
PostPosted: May 21st, 2012, 7:25 pm 
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Oh, and I'm going to be looking at Riptide and Top as potential mafia, or at least lynch targets. They definitely wont be their role from last time, and the odds of them just swapping roles is slim, so out of the two of them, there is a 2 (or maybe even 3) out of 6 chance of one of them being mafia.

With the whole 'greater danger' to us thing, do you think the mafia have roles, or there is an extra mafia member to compensate for the two confirmed, or maybe both?

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 Post subject: Re: Birfurcate Mafia: Act II, Day 1
PostPosted: May 21st, 2012, 7:32 pm 
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Any particular reason to call me out specifically?

I'm not liking this:
Quote:
The threat to the Village was greater than ever.

I'm not sure to peg it as Jaron being dramatic or if we're looking at a larger or more powerful mafia, or a reduced number of pro-town roles. Since we've been given two essentially confirmed villagers, I wouldn't be surprised if we're looking at three mafia this time around.

So we know where we stand, Scar, Monk; did either of you have any special abilities, or were you both standard mafia goons? We might as well use part of Day 1 as a wrap-up of Act I. I was a vanilla villager last act.

Henry, what makes Riptide and Top suspects in particular? I think you might be confusing role and alignment. It actually makes sense to have multiple village roles now; if over half of the participants were vanilla townies, someone would see a repeat. Assuming we had only three villagers, then any pro-town role would have the same chance of being mafia this time around. I'm beginning to suspect this is going to be a form of escalation; the village is given a large advantage in the first round, but the mafia grows more powerful in subsequent rounds.

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 Post subject: Re: Birfurcate Mafia: Act II, Day 1
PostPosted: May 21st, 2012, 7:43 pm 
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Tahu 1000 wrote:
Any particular reason to call me out specifically?

I'm not liking this:
Quote:
The threat to the Village was greater than ever.

I'm not sure to peg it as Jaron being dramatic or if we're looking at a larger or more powerful mafia, or a reduced number of pro-town roles. Since we've been given two essentially confirmed villagers, I wouldn't be surprised if we're looking at three mafia this time around.

So we know where we stand, Scar, Monk; did either of you have any special abilities, or were you both standard mafia goons? We might as well use part of Day 1 as a wrap-up of Act I. I was a vanilla villager last act.

Henry, what makes Riptide and Top suspects in particular? I think you might be confusing role and alignment. It actually makes sense to have multiple village roles now; if over half of the participants were vanilla townies, someone would see a repeat. Assuming we had only three villagers, then any pro-town role would have the same chance of being mafia this time around. I'm beginning to suspect this is going to be a form of escalation; the village is given a large advantage in the first round, but the mafia grows more powerful in subsequent rounds.


Well Top can't be the detective, and Riptide cannot be the Doctor. So at least we know that lynching one of them wont be lynching that specific role, or forcing them to roleclaim. It also means that they can't fake roleclaim that specific role. If one, or both, of them is mafia, it increases our odds. I'm not saying either of them ARE mafia, but if night one we were to lose the doctor or the detective, then we can look towards one of these two.

Why? Well assuming we don't lynch someone today, and lose the detective tonight, we'd have 8 people left, 2 confirmed villagers and one doctor. Out of the remaining 5, if we then assume that the stronger mafia means 3 people instead of 2, it would mean that there is a 3/5 chance of Riptide being mafia. Odds over 50% are usually pretty good in mafia.

It is something to keep in mind for the later game. I'm going to assume someone else has my former role, I doubt it would be removed from the game. It was a back-up doctor role, for those who spent ages trying to work it out - I had no ability until the Doctor died.

Market, want to explain any details of the Insomniac?

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 Post subject: Re: Birfurcate Mafia: Act II, Day 1
PostPosted: May 21st, 2012, 7:46 pm 
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We were both plain Mafia as far as I know, I'm only basing that on the posts from Jaron when we were lynched. I know I was just a goon, but I can't 100% speak for Monk(Though I have no reason to believe he was anything but a goon as well)

As for you, you were the first person that came to mind, I had planned to get everyone in here talking again by asking each of you what was going on. Obviously other players will do the same so we can get some form of activity in here.

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 Post subject: Re: Birfurcate Mafia: Act II, Day 1
PostPosted: May 21st, 2012, 7:48 pm 
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Scar wrote:
We were both plain Mafia as far as I know, I'm only basing that on the posts from Jaron when we were lynched. I know I was just a goon, but I can't 100% speak for Monk(Though I have no reason to believe he was anything but a goon as well)

As for you, you were the first person that came to mind, I had planned to get everyone in here talking again by asking each of you what was going on. Obviously other players will do the same so we can get some form of activity in here.


To be honest, when thinking of 'players to add new, useful bits of information to the game', Tahu doesn't usually come first to mind
Usually he is the player who does nothing for ages, then comments repeating someone else in a slightly varied way.

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 Post subject: Re: Birfurcate Mafia: Act II, Day 1
PostPosted: May 21st, 2012, 7:54 pm 
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OH and I know I am posting a lot already, but I may not be around at the end of Day One, going to London to see a musical with my girlfriend and staying in a hotel overnight so wont be by my laptop. May get online on my phone if I have some spare time but no promises. I'l be gone Wednesday-Thursday.

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 Post subject: Re: Birfurcate Mafia: Act II, Day 1
PostPosted: May 21st, 2012, 7:55 pm 
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Honestly that was part of my reasoning, get him in here and involved so he may have a reason to post lots.

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 Post subject: Re: Birfurcate Mafia: Act II, Day 1
PostPosted: May 21st, 2012, 8:45 pm 
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I, too, was just a normal mafia goon.

Since Jaron was ever-so-nice to confirm both Scar and I, that leave 7 suspects. Best part is that this is now, in essence, an open setup.

I'm going to agree with the three-person mafia theory. Balancing a two-vanilla-mafia game with two confirmed villagers is literally impossible.

Second off, the village deserves to lose if we don't lynch someone today. We have a 3/7 chance of blindly hitting a mafia. It may be generally unfavorable odds, but they're the best you'll ever see this early in a mafia game.

At the risk of looking like a Fuzzy Bunny, Dr Henry, your math is off all over the place and it bugs me. Of eight possible roles they could be selected for, three are scum. It's 3/8, not 2/6 or 2/5. Your overcomplication is obfuscating, and that's not pro-town.

Finally, out of sheer curiosity, Riptide, who'd you protect when we killed you?


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 Post subject: Re: Birfurcate Mafia: Act II, Day 1
PostPosted: May 21st, 2012, 8:52 pm 
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Monk Basher wrote:
I, too, was just a normal mafia goon.

Since Jaron was ever-so-nice to confirm both Scar and I, that leave 7 suspects. Best part is that this is now, in essence, an open setup.

I'm going to agree with the three-person mafia theory. Balancing a two-vanilla-mafia game with two confirmed villagers is literally impossible.

Second off, the village deserves to lose if we don't lynch someone today. We have a 3/7 chance of blindly hitting a mafia. It may be generally unfavorable odds, but they're the best you'll ever see this early in a mafia game.

At the risk of looking like a Fuzzy Bunny, Dr Henry, your math is off all over the place and it bugs me. Of eight possible roles they could be selected for, three are scum. It's 3/8, not 2/6 or 2/5. Your overcomplication is obfuscating, and that's not pro-town.

Finally, out of sheer curiosity, Riptide, who'd you protect when we killed you?


My math isn't all over the place. It is based on you and Scar being confirmed villagers, thus taking it down to 7 other possible roles (6, therefore, if we disclude their former role), and was hypothesised on one singular mafia kill overnight, making 8 remaining people, 2 being confirmed.

Do you want to re-think that vote?

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 Post subject: Re: Birfurcate Mafia: Act II, Day 1
PostPosted: May 21st, 2012, 9:23 pm 
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I'll be interested in talking about the specifics of this game once it's over. Or perhaps they'll be clear to me at that point.

It seems clear that Monk and Scar are townies. I am skeptical to assume this, though. In Jaron's opening statement, he has the two saying they aren't mafia...which is exactly what the mafia would do. I mean, look back at Top's Legend of Zelda variant. Days reset, and the same people were mafia. It seems obvious that nothing has 'reset', we've moved on to act two. But, in tradition with a play or whatever, the roles remain the same...

But again, the fact that the two are confirmed seems to fit with the theme of a more powerful mafia, which Jaron did explicitly say. Or perhaps Jaron changed it on the fly, as a Doctor, Detective, Insomniac (which I now assume to be some sort of 'watcher' role) and a backup doctor are incredibly unfair odds for two vanilla mafiosos.

And who's to say that the whole thing still isn't random? Where does it say that Top or Riptide can't be detective or doctor again? Hell, we might not even have a detective or a doctor this time around.

Also, I wonder how many acts there are, and whether the mafia gets more powerful with each act. Perhaps if the mafia wins this act, the town will be more powerful in the next act. There'll probably be three acts by my guess, because anything more would be redundant, and because three is a significant number in many traditions. Or perhaps there are just two, and thus the 'bifurcate' title. Maybe there'll need to be three to have a 'tiebreaker' but if the same people aren't the same alignments, this would be pointless...

Though none of this is really either here nor there. Though we have high odds of hitting a mafioso, a mis-lynch could be disastrous for us. To the task at hand, I am a little wary of how Doc is flying around citing this weird math when Monk put it into the simplest terms: odds of hitting a mafioso (assuming Monk and Scar are town) are 3/7. That's all that needed to be said, not all the hoo-ha Doc posted. BUT he did die first last game and it would make sense for him to want to get as much done as possible this time around.

Also, I was vanilla last time around. But that should seem obvious at this point.

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 Post subject: Re: Birfurcate Mafia: Act II, Day 1
PostPosted: May 21st, 2012, 9:25 pm 
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Oh derp.

I seem to have goofed. I missed the first point. No one has the same role as in act I. :facepalm:

Half my logic is out the window then, but this makes things MUCH easier. The mafia will almost certainly claim vanilla.

Anyone up for a mass claim?

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